Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 94%: Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (94% YES).

What’s Happening

Prediction market participants are assigning a 94% probability that Anthropic's valuation will hit $1.1 trillion by December 31, 2026, reflecting a surge of confidence following the company's first-ever quarterly profit. The AI startup reported $10.9 billion in revenue for the June 2026 quarter, more than double the prior quarter's $4.8 billion, and posted $559 million in operating income. This milestone comes as the Financial Times reports Anthropic is set to raise $300 billion in funding at a $900 billion valuation, surpassing OpenAI's $852 billion valuation. The company's growth trajectory has been bolstered by a partnership with the Gates Foundation on a $200 million, four-year initiative to provide AI tools for healthcare, education, and agriculture in developing nations. [MobiHealthNews, May 18]

Anthropic's valuation hitting $1.1 trillion by year-end would represent a dramatic acceleration from its current reported valuation, driven by what the Wall Street Journal described as "mind-blowing growth" that has propelled the company into profitability. The startup expects a 130% revenue surge to $10.9 billion in the June quarter, defying skeptics of the AI boom, and has committed $1.25 billion monthly to SpaceX for AI compute through 2029. CNBC's annual Disruptor 50 list placed Anthropic at the top spot, noting its valuation now exceeds that of chief rival OpenAI, whose enterprise growth has reportedly trailed Anthropic's. [WSJ, May 20]

The market's near-certainty that Anthropic's valuation will hit $1.1 trillion by December 31 aligns with broader industry trends, as Polymarket traders also anticipate that Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX will trade at valuations north of $1.4 trillion on their first day of public trading. Reports indicate Anthropic might have its first profitable quarter, while SpaceX has officially filed for its public debut and OpenAI is reportedly preparing to do so confidentially. The company's revenue more than doubled to $10.9 billion in Q2 2026, marking its first quarterly operating profit in company history, according to OpenTools. [CNBC, May 21]

Traded on Polymarket — $66K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($66K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 94c YES.