Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 7%: Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (7% YES). Amazon's Big Rally Takes A Breather Just Short Of $3 Trillion Club.

What’s Happening

The race for the second-largest company in the world by market cap has tightened in mid-May 2026, with Nvidia (NVDA) sitting at a $5.4 trillion market capitalization as of May 18 close, trailing only Microsoft (MSFT) among megacaps. Nvidia would need to gain 11.5% to cross the $6 trillion threshold ahead of its Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings release on May 20, a move that would further compress Apple's path to reclaiming the #2 slot. Apple (AAPL) currently sits inside the $3 trillion club alongside Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft, with Amazon (AMZN) approaching the threshold after a 27% rally from April through an intraday high of 278.56 on May 5. [Motley Fool, May 19]

For Apple to become the apple second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, it would need either Nvidia or Microsoft to shed roughly $1.5–2 trillion in valuation inside ten trading sessions, or Apple itself to rally on the order of 50%+ — a move without precedent over such a window for a megacap. Regulatory overhang adds incremental pressure: on May 18, an Indian court ordered Apple to "fully cooperate" with antitrust investigators probing the iPhone apps market, rejecting the company's stay request. The order extends a multi-jurisdictional services-revenue review that already includes EU Digital Markets Act enforcement and the U.S. DOJ case. [Reuters, May 18]

Capital flows in the semiconductor complex continue to favor Nvidia's lead over Apple. AMD announced on May 21 a $10 billion investment across Taiwan's semiconductor and AI ecosystem, reinforcing the AI capex cycle that has driven Nvidia's 20% gain since its Q4 fiscal 2026 print. With ten calendar days remaining until the May 31 reference date — which also coincides with a blue moon micromoon at 4:45 a.m. ET per astronomical calendars — the structural gap between AAPL's roughly $3.1 trillion capitalization and Nvidia's $5.4 trillion makes the apple second-largest company in the world by market cap on may 31 outcome contingent on a tail-risk Nvidia drawdown rather than Apple-specific catalysts. [CNBC, May 21]

Traded on Polymarket — $139K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 18c YES with $139K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.