Will Jacob deGrom win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Jacob deGrom win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Anaheim native Wade Meckler powers struggling Angels to a win over Rangers in his debut.

What’s Happening

Texas Rangers right-hander Jacob deGrom surrendered a three-run, first-pitch home run to Anaheim native Wade Meckler in the rookie's MLB debut on Friday, May 22, 2026, as the Los Angeles Angels defeated Texas 9-6 at Angel Stadium. Meckler, called up earlier that day from Double-A Rocket City, also recorded a sliding catch in foul territory off a Brandon Nimmo fly ball. The outing extended a difficult stretch for deGrom, who entered the start coming off a four-run loss to Houston on May 16 in which Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve homered. The Rangers ace's recent results have complicated his early standing in the jacob degrom al cy young award race [FOX Sports, May 23].

Despite the recent setbacks, MLB.com noted on May 19 that deGrom is "putting together another strong year with the Rangers," his first full healthy campaign since departing the New York Mets after 2022. Analysts tracking the American League pitching field point to deGrom's swing-and-miss profile and 97-mph fastball velocity, still intact at age 37, as evidence the right-hander remains in the conversation. Skeptics counter that two multi-run outings inside a single week — combined with the durability questions that limited him to a combined 38 starts across 2021-2024 — make a sustained 30-start Cy Young campaign statistically improbable, particularly against younger AL contenders carrying lower ERAs through Memorial Day [MLB.com, May 19].

The structural factor governing resolution is innings volume: BBWAA voters have awarded the AL Cy Young to a pitcher with fewer than 160 innings only once in the past decade, and deGrom's career-high since 2019 is 92 innings (2023). With roughly four months remaining in the regular season, the Rangers right-hander would need to avoid the injured list entirely while compressing a Cy Young-caliber rate-stat line into a workload that voters historically discount. Texas manager Bruce Bochy has not publicly altered deGrom's rotation slot following the Angels loss, and the next scheduled start falls in the upcoming homestand. The jacob degrom al cy young award outcome will hinge on whether the right-hander can string together 20-plus consecutive healthy starts beginning in June [LA Times, May 23].

Traded on Polymarket — $52K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($52K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 8c YES.