Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s US Open?

As of September 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s US Open?” at 12% YES with $217K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s US Open. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES).

What’s Happening

As of late August 2026, betting odds and sportsbooks place Jessica Pegula’s chances of winning the Women’s US Open at 9%, trailing the top three favorites: Aryna Sabalenka at 23%, Coco Gauff at 16%, and Iga Swiatek at 15%. Pegula’s 9% figure aligns directly with the current prediction market probability of 9% YES, reflecting a consensus that the 32-year-old American is a solid but not elite contender in the draw. The odds were published on Sunday, Aug. 30, 2026, just before the tournament’s opening rounds at Flushing Meadows, and remained relatively flat after the initial draw was released. [ESPN, Aug 30]

Pegula’s path in the 2026 tournament has been efficient so far. On Wednesday, Sept. 2, 2026, she defeated fellow American Sofia Kenin in straight sets in just 56 minutes, advancing to the third round without dropping a set. That victory came after a notable runner-up finish at the Cincinnati Open in late August, where she lost to Coco Gauff in the final. The Cincinnati result, plus her quick start in New York, underscores that the jessica pegula women’s us open campaign is building momentum, though her draw remains challenging. Pegula is also playing for a potential No. 1 ranking: if she wins the title in Arthur Ashe Stadium on Sept. 12, 2026, she would claim the world’s top spot for the first time in her career. [Sportstar, Sep 2]

The stakes for the jessica pegula women’s us open run extend beyond a single Grand Slam title. According to a report from Monday, Aug. 31, 2026, four women — Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, and Pegula — can leave New York as the world’s top-ranked player. For Pegula, a Buffalo native, that would mark her first-ever stint at No. 1, a milestone that would reshape her legacy. Her next match is scheduled for the third round, where she will face an unseeded opponent, but the quarterfinal stage could pit her against a top-10 seed. With Sabalenka and Gauff on the opposite side of the draw, Pegula’s 9% probability reflects both her strong form and the steep competition ahead. [Jefferson City News Tribune, Aug 31]

Traded on Polymarket — $217K Volume