Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 11%: Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (11% YES). Olivia Rodrigo Finds ‘The Cure’: Stream It Now.

What’s Happening

British singer-songwriter Olivia Dean faces a steep competitive landscape in her bid to secure a #1 hit in the US in May, with the Billboard Hot 100 currently dominated by established American chart powerhouses. On Friday, May 22, Grammy-winning pop artist Olivia Rodrigo released "The Cure," the second single from her forthcoming third studio album You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love. The lead single from that project, "Drop Dead," debuted at No. 1 on the Hot 100 following its April 17 release, marking Rodrigo's fourth chart-topping single on the all-genre tally. [Billboard Canada, May 22]

The probability that Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May is shaped by the structural dynamics of the Hot 100, where established artists with major-label distribution and pre-release streaming momentum typically occupy the top slot. Country crossover act Ella Langley has further compressed available chart real estate, with "Choosin' Texas" holding at No. 1 on the Hot Country Songs chart for 24 consecutive weeks as of mid-May, tying two of the longest-running country chart leaders in recent history. Dean, whose profile has grown via her 2023 debut Messy and viral track "Dive," has not been reported among current Hot 100 top-10 contenders in trade coverage this cycle. [Forbes, May 17]

Looking ahead, the remaining window for Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May narrows with each weekly Billboard refresh, as the final chart dated within the month is published in the closing days of May based on tracking data through the preceding Thursday. Rodrigo's "The Cure," released May 22, is positioned to debut high in subsequent chart weeks given the streaming and sales pattern established by "Drop Dead." Other pop releases tracked in trade press, including coverage of artists such as Slayyyter and ongoing campaigns from Lady Gaga's MAYHEM Requiem live era, further illustrate the depth of competing major releases consuming chart attention through the month's close. [Variety, May 22]

Traded on Polymarket — $67K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($67K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 6c YES.