Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). US, Iran making progress in talks, though military option remains on the table, sources tell 'Post'.

What’s Happening

Regional mediators and US officials told the Wall Street Journal on May 19, 2026 that Iran's negotiating position has not materially shifted from earlier rounds, raising doubts about whether an offramp to the ongoing conflict can be found. The same day, US Vice President JD Vance publicly declared Washington is seeking to "reset the relationship" with Tehran, framing the diplomatic track as the administration's preferred path. One day earlier, President Donald Trump announced he would delay planned US military strikes on Iran — originally scheduled for Tuesday, May 19 — after Gulf state leaders intervened to request additional time for talks. The question of whether the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States remains structurally constrained by the absence of formal diplomatic relations between the two governments since 1980. [WSJ, May 19]

The Jerusalem Post reported on May 20, 2026 that three regional sources confirmed progress on a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, though significant gaps remain. Israeli officials stressed that the military option "remains on the table" for Trump despite ongoing diplomatic contacts, reflecting the hawkish view that pressure must accompany negotiations. Analysts caution that mediated talks — currently routed through Oman, Qatar, and China — have historically taken place in third-country venues such as Muscat, Doha, and Vienna, never on US soil. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told AP on May 15 that "a lack of trust is the biggest obstacle" and indicated Tehran would welcome Chinese diplomatic assistance, further reducing the probability that the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States. [AP, May 15]

The structural factor determining resolution is venue precedent: every direct or indirect US-Iran engagement since the 2015 JCPOA negotiations has occurred in neutral mediator countries, and Iranian officials face domestic political constraints that make travel to the United States politically untenable. With China's Xi Jinping reportedly preparing to host Trump for a summit that may include Iran-track diplomacy, and Gulf capitals offering active mediation, the operational pipeline for upcoming meetings points toward Muscat or Doha rather than Washington or New York. A US-hosted meeting would require either a UN General Assembly sideline encounter — historically declined by Iranian delegations — or an unprecedented bilateral visit, neither of which is signaled in current reporting. [Jerusalem Post, May 20]

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