Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 17%: Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (17% YES). Strait of Hormuz transits increase slightly as Iran, US.

What’s Happening

The question of whether there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31 sits against a backdrop of a waterway operating at a small fraction of its historical throughput. According to maritime tracking cited by industry observers, daily transits fell from roughly 11 vessels on Saturday, May 16, to eight on Sunday, May 17, with foreign-flagged movements largely absent and Iranian-linked vessels dominating the limited traffic. Reports also surfaced of an Iranian Bitcoin-backed insurance program aimed at coaxing commercial shippers back into the strait, though uptake has remained negligible. Before the current Middle East conflict, the strait routinely handled roughly 70 transits per day, underscoring how far current volumes sit below the 60-transit threshold. [Insurance Journal, May 19]

A modest uptick was reported in the following days as US-Iran negotiations continued, with analysts at Vespucci Maritime noting that none of the transiting vessels were container ships and that absolute numbers remained "tiny." On May 22, The Maritime Executive reported that Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy claimed to have "established a safe route for the continuity of international trade," though those assertions remained unsubstantiated by independent tracking data. The diplomatic backdrop matters for whether there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31: even an accelerated ceasefire framework would face logistical lag, as insurers, charterers, and crewing agencies typically require multi-day confirmation windows before redirecting tonnage back through a contested chokepoint. [Maritime Executive, May 22]

Second-order effects of the closure are now visible across global shipping. Bimco reported that Panama Canal tanker transits rose 8% year-on-year to 38 vessels per day, as US Gulf Coast exporters rerouted Arabian Gulf demand toward West Coast and Asian markets. CMB.Tech's Joris Daman described the crude tanker market as having reached a "similar equilibrium" to pre-conflict tightness through longer-haul trades, suggesting that commercial pressure to reopen Hormuz at scale has partially dissipated. With the May 31 measurement date approaching and daily counts still in single digits, the gap to a 60-transit daily average remains substantial absent a verifiable de-escalation and coordinated insurer reentry. [Seatrade Maritime, May 22]

Traded on Polymarket — $83K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($83K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 9c YES.