Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). Strait of Hormuz transits increase slightly as Iran, US.

What’s Happening

The question of whether there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31 sits against a backdrop of an effectively closed waterway, with maritime traffic reduced to a trickle dominated by Iranian-linked vessels since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran on February 28, 2026. According to ICIS reporting on May 18, transits have ticked higher amid ongoing Iran-U.S. negotiations, but Vespucci Maritime noted that none of the recently transiting vessels were container ships and that the absolute number remains tiny. Analysts characterized the modest uptick as Iran selectively allowing some elements of traffic, with the timing read as a possible diplomatic signal aimed at driving a wedge between U.S. and Chinese positions. [ICIS, May 18]

Bloomberg ship-tracking data cited by Insurance Journal on May 19 showed daily transits falling from about 11 on Saturday to eight on Sunday, illustrating how fragile any uptick remains and how far current flows sit below the 10-20 band. Foreign-affiliated movements were rare even as Tehran promoted a Bitcoin-backed insurance program intended to coax shipping companies back into the waterway. A Liberia-flagged suezmax, the Karolos, sailed from the Gulf to India after crossing the strait on May 15, one of only a handful of crude sailings that week, while VLCC Basrah Energy loaded 2 million barrels of Upper Zakum crude from ADNOC's Zirku terminal on May 1 before exiting. [Insurance Journal, May 19]

Leading maritime organisations on May 20 published Industry Guidance on the Safe Management of Vessel Transit through the Strait of Hormuz, formalising scenarios and risks for operators planning voyages should a clear transit window open. The document explicitly contemplates a "simultaneous, un-coordinated" surge of vessels attempting passage, a planning assumption that suggests industry expects any normalisation to be lumpy rather than steady. With baseline flows still in single digits as of mid-May and insurance, diplomatic, and military variables all unresolved, the structural setup for there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the strait of hormuz on may 31 depends on whether the negotiation track or the war footing dominates the final ten days of the month. [Seatrade Maritime, May 20]

Traded on Polymarket — $81K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($81K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 20c YES.