Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES). Strait of Hormuz transits increase slightly as Iran, US.

What’s Happening

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping as of late May 2026, with daily transit counts running in the single digits rather than the 40 to 60 range historically considered normal throughput. Maritime intelligence cited by Insurance Journal documented daily transits falling from about 11 vessels on Saturday to eight on Sunday, with traffic dominated by Iranian-linked vessels and a sparse handful of foreign-affiliated movements. The waterway, which previously handled roughly 20% of global oil trade, has been functionally blockaded by overlapping US and Iranian military positioning since the spring escalation, and reports of an Iranian Bitcoin-backed insurance program have failed to draw meaningful foreign tonnage back into the channel. [Insurance Journal, May 19]

ICIS reported on May 18 that transits had ticked modestly higher amid ongoing US-Iran negotiations, though Vespucci Maritime confirmed none of the recent transiting vessels were container ships and that overall volumes remain "tiny" relative to pre-conflict baselines. The Maritime Executive noted on May 22 that Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy continues to assert it has "established a safe route for the continuity of international trade," claims that independent shipping trackers describe as unsubstantiated. Whether there will be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31 depends on a step-change in commercial confidence that current vessel-tracking data does not support, with the gap between observed single-digit traffic and the 40 floor requiring roughly a fivefold increase within days. [Maritime Executive, May 22]

Downstream effects continue to reshape global energy logistics: Bimco data cited by Seatrade Maritime showed Panama Canal tanker transits rising 8% year-on-year to 38 vessels per day as US Gulf exports redirect toward West Coast and Asian buyers. CMB.Tech's Joris Daman described the closure as having "completely rewired" the seaborne crude transportation market, with longer-haul trade routes establishing a new equilibrium that reduces near-term pressure for a rapid Hormuz reopening. For there to be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31, either a negotiated de-escalation or a credible international insurance backstop would need to materialize within the resolution window, neither of which is reflected in current shipping or diplomatic indicators. [Seatrade Maritime, May 22]

Traded on Polymarket — $57K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($57K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 6c YES.