Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 58%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May. Currently, markets are divided (58% YES, 42% NO). By 08:08 GMT, Brent crude had reached $109.83/bbl and WTI crude $106.21/bbl, with both hitting multi-week highs earlier.

What’s Happening

As of late May 2026, the probability that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil will hit a low of $85 per barrel in May stands at 58%, reflecting a market bracing for a potential sharp pullback from recent multi-week highs. On 18 May 2026, WTI crude surged to $108.70/bbl, its highest level since 30 April, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions after an attack on a nuclear facility in the United Arab Emirates. This spike, which saw Brent crude reach $109.83/bbl, was fueled by faltering momentum toward ending the Iran conflict, raising fears of sustained supply disruptions in the Gulf region. The rapid ascent to these levels has created a volatile backdrop, where the possibility of a correction to $85—a drop of over 20% from the peak—is being actively priced by traders monitoring the fragile ceasefire negotiations. [Offshore Technology, Mon 18 May]

The market's focus on a potential low of $85 for WTI crude oil in May is underscored by a series of contradictory signals in the energy sector. By 22 May 2026, WTI had retreated to $96.14/bbl, a decline of roughly 10% from the week's highs, as three supertankers carrying 6 million barrels successfully exited the Strait of Hormuz on 20 May, temporarily easing supply fears. However, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) warned on 21 May that Gulf oil disruptions could persist until 2027, suggesting that any price relief may be short-lived. This tension between immediate logistical improvements and long-term structural risks has kept the probability of a drop to $85 elevated, as traders weigh whether the recent price spike was an overreaction to transient headlines. [OilPrice.com, Fri 22 May]

Looking ahead, the trajectory of WTI crude oil hitting a low of $85 in May hinges on the resolution of the Iran crisis and the pace of global demand destruction. On 21 May 2026, WTI briefly rebounded to $100.1/bbl amid renewed geopolitical uncertainty, but analysts note that the market is ignoring "red flags" of a deepening global energy crisis, including record-high gasoline prices and weakening industrial demand. The 58% probability assigned to a sub-$85 print suggests that a significant portion of market participants anticipate a demand-side shock or a diplomatic breakthrough that could trigger a rapid sell-off. With the month drawing to a close, the key catalyst will be whether the U.S. administration can de-escalate tensions with Iran, or if further attacks on critical infrastructure—like the UAE nuclear plant—force a sustained risk premium that keeps prices elevated above the $85 threshold. [OilPrice.com, Thu 21 May]

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