Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 22%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (22% YES). By 08:08 GMT, Brent crude had reached $109.83/bbl and WTI crude $106.21/bbl, with both hitting multi-week highs earlier.

What’s Happening

As of late May 2026, the prediction market for whether WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $80 in May reflects a 22% YES probability, a stark contrast to the current trading environment where prices have consistently remained above the century mark. On 18 May, West Texas Intermediate crude surged to $106.21/bbl, reaching a multi-week high of $108.70/bbl, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions after an attack on a nuclear facility in the United Arab Emirates disrupted hopes for a de-escalation in the Iran conflict. This rally pushed Brent crude to $109.83/bbl, reinforcing a supply-risk premium that makes a drop to $80 appear highly unlikely within the month. [Offshore Technology, Mon 18]

Despite the elevated prices, the market has shown notable volatility, with WTI crude briefly dipping to $96.14/bbl by 22 May, a decline of over $10 from its peak earlier in the week. This pullback was partly attributed to reports that two supertankers successfully exited the Strait of Hormuz carrying crude bound for China, signaling a potential easing of supply bottlenecks, while traders grew increasingly skeptical of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal that could unlock additional barrels. However, even at these lower levels, the WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $80 in May scenario remains a distant prospect, as the global energy crisis deepens and structural shortages continue to underpin prices well above the $90 threshold. [OilPrice.com, Fri 22]

Looking ahead, the probability of WTI crashing to $80 by the end of May hinges on a rapid and unforeseen resolution to the Iran standoff or a sudden demand collapse, neither of which appears imminent. Analysts note that the oil market is ignoring multiple red flags, including a looming shortage scenario and persistent supply disruptions, which have kept WTI futures trading in a range of $96 to $108 throughout the month. With only days remaining in May, the 78% NO probability reflects the market's consensus that the confluence of geopolitical risk, tight inventories, and robust demand will prevent the WTI crude oil (WTI) hit (low) $80 in May outcome from materializing. [OilPrice.com, Fri 22]

Traded on Polymarket — $914K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 26c YES with $914K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.