{
 "week": "2026-W19",
 "period": {
  "start": "2026-05-04",
  "end": "2026-05-10"
 },
 "generated_at": "2026-09-04T09:00:11.812848+00:00",
 "stake": 1000,
 "record_period": {
  "first": "2026-04-15",
  "last": "2026-05-10"
 },
 "open_buy_calls": 108,
 "resolved_this_week": 37,
 "resolved_total": 222,
 "called_this_week": 18,
 "called_total": 102,
 "this_week": {
  "verdict": {
   "n": 15,
   "matched": 9,
   "pct": 60,
   "hold": 3,
   "pnl": {
    "calls": 15,
    "stake": 1000,
    "total": -3937.01,
    "roi_pct": -26.2
   },
   "by_category": {
    "geopolitics": {
     "n": 6,
     "matched": 2
    },
    "other": {
     "n": 5,
     "matched": 4
    },
    "sports": {
     "n": 3,
     "matched": 2
    },
    "politics": {
     "n": 1,
     "matched": 1
    }
   }
  }
 },
 "cumulative": {
  "verdict": {
   "n": 62,
   "matched": 37,
   "pct": 60,
   "hold": 40,
   "pnl": {
    "calls": 62,
    "stake": 1000,
    "total": -16915.05,
    "roi_pct": -27.3
   },
   "by_category": {
    "geopolitics": {
     "n": 19,
     "matched": 8
    },
    "other": {
     "n": 17,
     "matched": 14
    },
    "politics": {
     "n": 12,
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    },
    "sports": {
     "n": 10,
     "matched": 7
    },
    "crypto": {
     "n": 3,
     "matched": 0
    },
    "economics": {
     "n": 1,
     "matched": 0
    }
   }
  }
 },
 "excluded": {
  "invalid_or_unknown_outcome": 0,
  "no_call": 120,
  "hold_verdicts": 40,
  "verdict_after_close": 0
 },
 "rows": [
  {
   "slug": "lal-bar-rea-2026-05-10-rea",
   "title": "Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-10T23:46:37+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 1995108.1030160098,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 76,
    "frozen_at": "2026-05-07T01:36:16.034715+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 315.79
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-next-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-occur-after-may-10",
   "title": "Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-10T23:10:04+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 733178.1163170009,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 10,
    "frozen_at": "2026-05-04T01:12:27.750508+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
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   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "lal-ovi-get-2026-05-10-ovi",
   "title": "Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-10T22:37:38+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 540931.1992629993,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 68,
    "frozen_at": "2026-05-07T01:36:16.000324+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 470.59
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-leeds-be-relegated-from-the-english-premier-league-after-the-202526-season",
   "title": "Will Leeds be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?",
   "category": "sports",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-10T21:31:18+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 85729.72366999988,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 81,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-13T22:10:04.360750+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 234.57
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-2027",
   "title": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-09T19:53:03+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 14502613.985482976,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 71,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-13T22:10:04.325106+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-may-31-2026",
   "title": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-09T19:52:26+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 141250712.68070313,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 94,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-16T00:27:52.755102+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "NO",
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    "wallets": 1,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-05-05T22:04:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.942
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-june-30-2026",
   "title": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-09T19:45:22+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 60668118.31172506,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 91,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-15T00:59:39.304984+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "NO",
    "wallets_on_side": 1,
    "wallets": 1,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.935
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-8-754-861",
   "title": "Iran closes its airspace by May 8?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-09T06:57:31+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 7426874.501728975,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 84,
    "frozen_at": "2026-05-06T01:27:08.346538+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 190.48
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "NO",
    "wallets_on_side": 1,
    "wallets": 1,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-05-07T22:04:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.933
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-donald-trump-announce-that-the-united-states-blockade-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-has-been-lifted-by-may-8-2026-522",
   "title": "Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?",
   "category": "politics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-09T06:32:40+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 1972561.3981680025,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 92,
    "frozen_at": "2026-05-04T01:12:27.462001+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 86.96
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "ucl-bay-psg-2026-05-06-bay",
   "title": "Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-06T23:09:59+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 4623148.316256959,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "BUY YES",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 57,
    "frozen_at": "2026-05-01T01:09:59.614859+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "ucl-bay-psg-2026-05-06-psg",
   "title": "Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-06T23:02:06+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 3764798.519131009,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 26,
    "frozen_at": "2026-05-01T01:09:59.355821+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-us-crude-oil-reserves-fall-to-375m-by-may-1",
   "title": "Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-06T20:32:06+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 124034.0702409997,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 94,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-15T00:59:39.711055+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-5-2026",
   "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-06T06:27:56+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 3382145.0385539904,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 82,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-29T00:52:05.295112+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 219.51
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-atletico-madrid-win-the-202526-champions-league",
   "title": "Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?",
   "category": "sports",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-06T00:39:54+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 24660057.10849773,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "BUY YES",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 7,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-13T22:10:04.365067+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "ucl-ars-atm1-2026-05-05-atm1",
   "title": "Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-05T23:31:58+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 2955159.023338967,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 82,
    "frozen_at": "2026-05-01T01:09:59.342492+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 219.51
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-april-30",
   "title": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-05T16:50:08+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 1651616.9613379955,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 86,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-15T00:59:39.449829+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 162.79
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-another-country-conduct-military-action-against-iran-by-april-30-2026",
   "title": "Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-04T06:37:54+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 815393.2135460034,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "BUY YES",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 7,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-19T00:46:59.475791+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-tampa-bay-lightning-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup",
   "title": "Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?",
   "category": "sports",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-04T04:13:54+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 1977228.33126297,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 86,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-13T22:10:04.480777+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 162.79
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  }
 ],
 "not_called": [
  {
   "slug": "will-israel-strike-3-countries-in-2026",
   "title": "Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-10T01:36:03+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-manchester-united-finish-in-2nd-place-in-the-2025-26-english-premier-league",
   "title": "Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-09T22:42:47+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-next-prime-minister-of-hungary-be-viktor-orbn",
   "title": "Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-09T17:36:51+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-next-prime-minister-of-hungary-be-pter-magyar",
   "title": "Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-09T17:02:22+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "russia-ukraine-ceasefire-before-gta-vi-554",
   "title": "Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-09T04:29:49+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "atp-miguel-serna-2026-05-07",
   "title": "Santos: Luis Guto Miguel vs Juan Manuel La Serna",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-08T00:59:21+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-nottm-forest-win-the-2025-26-uefa-europa-league",
   "title": "Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-08T00:38:05+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "mlb-pit-ari-2026-05-07",
   "title": "Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-07T23:27:09+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-us-strike-6-countries-in-2026",
   "title": "Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-07T01:50:01+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-bayern-munich-win-the-202526-champions-league",
   "title": "Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-07T00:13:51+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "mlb-atl-sea-2026-05-06",
   "title": "Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-06T23:34:34+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-the-2026-ohio-governor-republican-primary-election",
   "title": "Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-06T03:59:26+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "atp-fuente-roncade-2026-05-05",
   "title": "",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-06T01:10:34+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "mlb-nym-col-2026-05-04",
   "title": "",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-05T01:03:24+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-all-india-trinamool-congress-aitc-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-west-bengal-legislative-assembly-election",
   "title": "Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-04T20:14:30+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "mlb-atl-col-2026-05-03",
   "title": "",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-04T01:01:34+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "f1-miami-grand-prix-winner-verstappen-2026-05-03",
   "title": "Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-04T00:48:14+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-inter-win-the-202526-serie-a-league",
   "title": "Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-04T00:20:56+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-napoli-win-the-202526-serie-a-league",
   "title": "Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-04T00:18:52+00:00"
  }
 ],
 "method": "Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data.",
 "narrative": "18 of the 37 tracked markets that resolved in week 19 (2026-05-04 – 2026-05-10) had an AI verdict frozen before the close. BUY verdicts hit the outcome in 9 of 15; 3 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative record: 37 of 62 BUY verdicts hit (60%), ROI -27.3% at $1,000 per call, held to resolution; 108 BUY verdicts are still open and enter the record as they resolve. A HOLD verdict is not a call and is never graded; markets without a verdict are counted, not listed."
}