{
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   "title": "Will France win Eurovision 2026?",
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   "title": "Will Denmark be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?",
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   "title": "Starmer out by May 15, 2026?",
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   "title": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?",
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   "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?",
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   "title": "Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?",
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   "title": "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?",
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   "slug": "will-manchester-united-finish-in-the-top-4-of-the-epl-202526-standings",
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   "title": "Will the Anaheim Ducks win the Western Conference?",
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   "slug": "epstein-suicide-note-released-by-may-8",
   "title": "Epstein suicide note released by May 8?",
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   "slug": "israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-31",
   "title": "Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?",
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   "slug": "us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-13-2026",
   "title": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?",
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   "slug": "will-the-minnesota-wild-win-the-western-conference-742",
   "title": "Will the Minnesota Wild win the Western Conference?",
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  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-minnesota-wild-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup",
   "title": "Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?",
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  },
  {
   "slug": "will-psg-win-the-202526-french-ligue-1",
   "title": "Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?",
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  },
  {
   "slug": "kevin-warsh-confirmed-as-fed-chair-by-may-15-961",
   "title": "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?",
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   "closed_at": "2026-05-14T00:12:20+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
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   },
   "wallet_side": {
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   "verdict_after_close": false,
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  },
  {
   "slug": "will-kevin-warsh-be-confirmed-as-fed-chair",
   "title": "Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-14T00:04:48+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
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    "side": "YES",
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    "call": false,
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    "frozen_at": "2026-04-15T00:59:39.309913+00:00",
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   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-donald-trump-visit-china-in-2026",
   "title": "Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?",
   "category": "politics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-13T15:02:16+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 121695.89176999999,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "BUY YES",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 91,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-13T22:10:04.776748+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 98.9
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-80-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-april-30",
   "title": "Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-12T15:59:59+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 751313.8158880012,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 79,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-19T00:46:59.204474+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 265.82
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-april-30",
   "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-12T15:25:37+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 38005859.138665095,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 23,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-15T00:59:39.283134+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-40-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-april-30",
   "title": "Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-12T15:24:46+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 1613715.2698230005,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "BUY YES",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 38,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-19T00:46:59.633373+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-annual-inflation-increase-by-3pt8-in-april",
   "title": "Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?",
   "category": "sports",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-12T15:04:51+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 82956.21820900009,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 73,
    "frozen_at": "2026-05-01T01:09:59.400672+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-annual-inflation-increase-by-3pt7-in-april",
   "title": "Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?",
   "category": "sports",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-12T15:04:23+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 63747.71167499994,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 65,
    "frozen_at": "2026-05-01T01:09:59.391957+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 538.46
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-inflation-reach-more-than-3pt5-in-2026-154",
   "title": "Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?",
   "category": "sports",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-12T15:03:11+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 176699.18575799986,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "BUY YES",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 91,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-16T00:27:53.328735+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 98.9
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-11-2026",
   "title": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-12T08:53:58+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 5134068.761336026,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 91,
    "frozen_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:20.075168+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 98.9
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  }
 ],
 "not_called": [
  {
   "slug": "will-trump-speak-to-elon-musk-in-may",
   "title": "Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-16T17:49:27+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "cerebras-ipo-before-2027",
   "title": "Cerebras IPO before 2027?",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-16T13:50:15+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-anaheim-ducks-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup",
   "title": "Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-15T07:53:02+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "mlb-stl-oak-2026-05-14",
   "title": "St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-14T23:00:53+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-trump-and-xi-handshake-last-1015-seconds-during-the-day-of-their-next-meeting-in-2026",
   "title": "Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-14T20:26:11+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-trump-meet-with-xi-jinping-in-2026",
   "title": "Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-14T04:58:20+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-lens-win-the-202526-french-ligue-1",
   "title": "Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-14T00:35:57+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "mlb-laa-cle-2026-05-12",
   "title": "Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-13T01:41:07+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "atp-almeida-casanov-2026-05-11",
   "title": "Cordoba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Hernan Casanova",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-13T01:01:12+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-court-force-trump-to-refund-tariffs-2026-06-30",
   "title": "Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-12T22:37:28+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-los-angeles-lakers-win-the-nba-western-conference-finals",
   "title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-12T08:42:29+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "mlb-laa-cle-2026-05-11",
   "title": "Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-12T01:46:23+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "mlb-nyy-bal-2026-05-11",
   "title": "New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-12T01:43:14+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "atp-gallego-dickers-2026-05-11",
   "title": "Cordoba: Juan Ignacio Gallego vs Ryan Dickerson",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-12T01:07:23+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-philadelphia-76ers-win-the-nba-eastern-conference-finals",
   "title": "Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-11T04:24:25+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-real-madrid-win-the-202526-la-liga",
   "title": "Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-11T00:50:55+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-barcelona-win-the-202526-la-liga",
   "title": "Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-05-11T00:49:44+00:00"
  }
 ],
 "method": "Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data.",
 "narrative": "33 of the 50 tracked markets that resolved in week 20 (2026-05-11 – 2026-05-17) had an AI verdict frozen before the close. BUY verdicts hit the outcome in 14 of 17; 16 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative record: 51 of 79 BUY verdicts hit (65%), ROI -20.9% at $1,000 per call, held to resolution; 108 BUY verdicts are still open and enter the record as they resolve. A HOLD verdict is not a call and is never graded; markets without a verdict are counted, not listed."
}