{
 "week": "2026-W38",
 "period": {
  "start": "2026-09-14",
  "end": "2026-09-20"
 },
 "generated_at": "2026-09-21T06:00:04.457587+00:00",
 "stake": 1000,
 "record_period": {
  "first": "2026-04-15",
  "last": "2026-09-17"
 },
 "open_buy_calls": 109,
 "resolved_this_week": 26,
 "resolved_total": 1269,
 "called_this_week": 16,
 "called_total": 479,
 "this_week": {
  "verdict": {
   "n": 10,
   "matched": 7,
   "pct": 70,
   "hold": 6,
   "pnl": {
    "calls": 10,
    "stake": 1000,
    "total": 6166.71,
    "roi_pct": 61.7
   },
   "by_category": {
    "economics": {
     "n": 7,
     "matched": 4
    },
    "geopolitics": {
     "n": 2,
     "matched": 2
    },
    "politics": {
     "n": 1,
     "matched": 1
    }
   }
  }
 },
 "cumulative": {
  "verdict": {
   "n": 305,
   "matched": 213,
   "pct": 70,
   "hold": 173,
   "pnl": {
    "calls": 305,
    "stake": 1000,
    "total": -487.63,
    "roi_pct": -0.2
   },
   "by_category": {
    "other": {
     "n": 97,
     "matched": 74
    },
    "geopolitics": {
     "n": 89,
     "matched": 65
    },
    "politics": {
     "n": 50,
     "matched": 38
    },
    "sports": {
     "n": 37,
     "matched": 22
    },
    "economics": {
     "n": 19,
     "matched": 10
    },
    "crypto": {
     "n": 12,
     "matched": 4
    },
    "science": {
     "n": 1,
     "matched": 0
    }
   }
  }
 },
 "excluded": {
  "invalid_or_unknown_outcome": 8,
  "no_call": 790,
  "hold_verdicts": 173,
  "verdict_after_close": 0
 },
 "rows": [
  {
   "slug": "israel-closes-its-airspace-by-september-30",
   "title": "Israel closes its airspace by September 30?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-20T16:51:09+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 3572835.178233998,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 38,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-04T23:18:09.892834+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "no-change-in-bank-of-englands-interest-rates-after-september-2026-meeting-20260623013424711",
   "title": "No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?",
   "category": "economics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-17T13:01:09+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 277744.4136080001,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 93,
    "frozen_at": "2026-08-23T01:32:20.741414+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "YES",
    "wallets_on_side": 1,
    "wallets": 1,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-09-14T22:12:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.945
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "sweden-parliamentary-election-liberals-win-seats-20260812164320900",
   "title": "Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?",
   "category": "politics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-17T04:59:51+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 249199.57508299995,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "BUY YES",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 78,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-09T23:51:18.349721+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 282.05
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-649",
   "title": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?",
   "category": "economics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-16T21:40:27+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 42158279.47949004,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 63,
    "frozen_at": "2026-07-10T01:53:49.269503+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "YES",
    "wallets_on_side": 2,
    "wallets": 2,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-09-12T22:14:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.795
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-fed-pausepausepause-in-the-next-three-decisions-junjulsep",
   "title": "Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?",
   "category": "economics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-16T20:02:48+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 349718.2417109999,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 60,
    "frozen_at": "2026-07-26T23:45:45.936294+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 666.67
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-fed-decide-differently-in-the-next-three-decisions-julsepoct-20260617191211945",
   "title": "Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?",
   "category": "economics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-16T20:02:43+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 357347.877267,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 53,
    "frozen_at": "2026-07-12T01:51:58.901399+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-fed-decide-differently-in-the-next-three-decisions-junjulsep",
   "title": "Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?",
   "category": "economics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-16T20:02:43+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 384947.077241,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "BUY YES",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 46,
    "frozen_at": "2026-07-12T01:51:58.915691+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 1173.91
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-fed-pausepausepause-in-the-next-three-decisions-julsepoct-20260617191211941",
   "title": "Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?",
   "category": "economics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-16T20:02:43+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 267680.84015500004,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "BUY YES",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 59,
    "frozen_at": "2026-08-21T03:13:13.168028+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615",
   "title": "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?",
   "category": "economics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-16T20:02:43+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 56435144.7229872,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 44,
    "frozen_at": "2026-07-12T01:51:58.840067+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "YES",
    "wallets_on_side": 1,
    "wallets": 1,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-09-12T22:14:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.205
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "fed-rate-hike-by-october-2026-meeting",
   "title": "Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?",
   "category": "economics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-16T20:02:27+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 1062292.7221219996,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "BUY YES",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 47,
    "frozen_at": "2026-07-12T01:51:58.881098+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 1127.66
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "YES",
    "wallets_on_side": 2,
    "wallets": 2,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-09-16T10:12:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.915
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "fed-rate-hike-by-september-2026-meeting",
   "title": "Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?",
   "category": "economics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-16T20:02:27+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 1909469.4968559989,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 40,
    "frozen_at": "2026-07-14T02:28:12.374403+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026",
   "title": "Fed rate hike in 2026?",
   "category": "economics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-16T20:02:27+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 10115410.030876001,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "BUY YES",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 15,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-13T22:10:04.509775+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 5666.67
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "YES",
    "wallets_on_side": 3,
    "wallets": 3,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-09-15T10:12:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.935
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-september-30",
   "title": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-15T18:02:30+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 285855.371875,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "BUY YES",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 86,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-11T23:28:17.264724+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 162.79
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-september-18",
   "title": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-15T18:02:27+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 160225.478896,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 94,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-13T23:20:45.079337+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-september-14-2026",
   "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-15T06:01:39+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 1759862.6388520016,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 92,
    "frozen_at": "2026-08-28T23:23:11.845529+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 86.96
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "NO",
    "wallets_on_side": 1,
    "wallets": 1,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-09-01T22:16:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.925
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-alexander-zverev-win-the-2026-mens-us-open",
   "title": "Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-14T00:56:22+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 2524800.2272430016,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 46,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-09T23:51:18.200168+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  }
 ],
 "not_called": [
  {
   "slug": "mlb-nyy-ari-2026-09-20",
   "title": "Mlb nyy ari",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-20T23:26:11+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "mlb-sf-lad-2026-09-20",
   "title": "Mlb sf lad",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-20T23:02:38+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "mlb-mia-sd-2026-09-20",
   "title": "Mlb mia sd",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-20T22:50:13+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "mlb-mil-bal-2026-09-19",
   "title": "Mlb mil bal",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-19T23:03:12+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-apple-release-iphone-18-in-2026",
   "title": "Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-18T14:12:26+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "wta-lys-podoros-2026-09-17",
   "title": "Wta lys podoros",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-17T23:07:09+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "wta-valdman-pigossi-2026-09-14",
   "title": "Wta valdman pigossi",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-16T23:10:12+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "atp-nakash-ilagan-2026-09-15",
   "title": "Atp nakash ilagan",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-15T23:00:36+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-sweden-democrats-sd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-swedish-parliamentary-election",
   "title": "Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-14T05:44:52+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-moderate-party-m-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-swedish-parliamentary-election",
   "title": "Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-14T05:42:21+00:00"
  }
 ],
 "method": "Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data.",
 "narrative": "Week 2026-W38 (2026-09-14 to 2026-09-20). Tracked markets resolved this week: 26, of which 16 had an AI verdict frozen before the close; the rest are not graded. BUY verdicts this week: 7 of 10 hit the outcome; 6 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative: 213 of 305 BUY verdicts hit (70%), ROI -0.2% with $1,000 on each call held to resolution, 173 HOLD not counted, 109 BUY verdicts still open."
}