{
 "week": "2026-W39",
 "period": {
  "start": "2026-09-21",
  "end": "2026-09-27"
 },
 "generated_at": "2026-09-28T06:00:06.959305+00:00",
 "stake": 1000,
 "record_period": {
  "first": "2026-04-15",
  "last": "2026-09-27"
 },
 "open_buy_calls": 108,
 "resolved_this_week": 26,
 "resolved_total": 1295,
 "called_this_week": 18,
 "called_total": 497,
 "this_week": {
  "verdict": {
   "n": 11,
   "matched": 8,
   "pct": 73,
   "hold": 7,
   "pnl": {
    "calls": 11,
    "stake": 1000,
    "total": 2095.48,
    "roi_pct": 19.0
   },
   "by_category": {
    "geopolitics": {
     "n": 9,
     "matched": 6
    },
    "politics": {
     "n": 2,
     "matched": 2
    }
   }
  }
 },
 "cumulative": {
  "verdict": {
   "n": 316,
   "matched": 221,
   "pct": 70,
   "hold": 180,
   "pnl": {
    "calls": 316,
    "stake": 1000,
    "total": 1607.85,
    "roi_pct": 0.5
   },
   "by_category": {
    "geopolitics": {
     "n": 98,
     "matched": 71
    },
    "other": {
     "n": 97,
     "matched": 74
    },
    "politics": {
     "n": 52,
     "matched": 40
    },
    "sports": {
     "n": 37,
     "matched": 22
    },
    "economics": {
     "n": 19,
     "matched": 10
    },
    "crypto": {
     "n": 12,
     "matched": 4
    },
    "science": {
     "n": 1,
     "matched": 0
    }
   }
  }
 },
 "excluded": {
  "invalid_or_unknown_outcome": 8,
  "no_call": 798,
  "hold_verdicts": 180,
  "verdict_after_close": 0
 },
 "rows": [
  {
   "slug": "us-x-china-tariff-agreement-by-december-31",
   "title": "US x China tariff agreement by December 31?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-27T07:15:00+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 302988.27756899997,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "BUY YES",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 87,
    "frozen_at": "2026-07-12T01:51:58.896556+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 149.43
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "YES",
    "wallets_on_side": 1,
    "wallets": 1,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-09-26T10:15:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.949
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-september-25-20260917",
   "title": "US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-27T06:05:48.106852+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 734156.6500520003,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 94,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-21T10:21:14.496639+00:00",
    "source": "latest_pre_resolution",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "YES",
    "wallets_on_side": 2,
    "wallets": 2,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-09-21T10:11:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.935
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-benjamin-netanyahu-visit-new-york-city-by-september-30-20260722053445710-178",
   "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-24T18:26:14+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 203143.78590300004,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 95,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-20T23:28:10.927599+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "YES",
    "wallets_on_side": 1,
    "wallets": 1,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-09-20T22:11:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.95
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-xi-jinping-visit-us-before-2027-763-851",
   "title": "Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-24T00:07:49+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 1132873.2728429998,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 94,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-04T01:33:41.082472+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "YES",
    "wallets_on_side": 1,
    "wallets": 1,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-09-16T22:12:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.947
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-xi-jinping-visit-us-by-september-30",
   "title": "Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-24T00:07:47+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 807671.2508130001,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 95,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-20T10:22:57.686716+00:00",
    "source": "latest_pre_resolution",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-xi-jinping-visit-us-by-september-23",
   "title": "Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-24T00:06:47+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 658899.5207189999,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 10,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-18T23:16:24.058347+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-xi-jinping-visit-us-by-september-24",
   "title": "Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-24T00:06:47+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 385299.3616859999,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 94,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-18T23:16:24.080771+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "YES",
    "wallets_on_side": 1,
    "wallets": 1,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-09-20T22:11:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.95
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-russia-enter-dobropillia-by-december-31-756-874",
   "title": "Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-22T23:10:01+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 169417.70025499995,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "BUY YES",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 89,
    "frozen_at": "2026-08-21T03:13:13.249999+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 123.6
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-qatar-by-september-30-2026-20260622185050767",
   "title": "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-22T22:30:43+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 762692.5484160001,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 81,
    "frozen_at": "2026-07-12T01:51:58.565887+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 234.57
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-no-qualifying-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-occur-by-september-30-2026-20260622185050763",
   "title": "Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-22T21:22:15+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 1641762.3411070001,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 22,
    "frozen_at": "2026-08-23T01:32:20.602001+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 3545.45
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-october-31-2026",
   "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-22T21:20:55.789128+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 356750.60374999995,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 20,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-14T23:27:56.028877+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-march-31-2027",
   "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-22T21:20:55.785107+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 451510.68794499995,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 44,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-09T23:51:18.322699+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-december-31-2026",
   "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-22T21:20:55.780752+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 468562.5689750001,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 61,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-08T23:48:58.078050+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-september-30-2026",
   "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-22T21:17:58+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 1703765.3360310008,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 20,
    "frozen_at": "2026-08-21T03:13:12.774191+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "iran-oman-hormuz-agreement-by-september-21",
   "title": "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-22T20:51:58+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 142692.30236899998,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 88,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-13T23:20:44.696520+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 136.36
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-september-21-2026",
   "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-22T06:01:43+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 1462591.6606600005,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 86,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-02T01:28:08.830178+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 162.79
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "NO",
    "wallets_on_side": 1,
    "wallets": 1,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-09-15T10:12:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.945
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-united-russia-er-gain-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election",
   "title": "Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?",
   "category": "politics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-21T12:43:47+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 24490194.082594987,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "BUY YES",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 65,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-17T00:43:34.030055+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 538.46
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "YES",
    "wallets_on_side": 3,
    "wallets": 4,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-09-20T10:12:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.805
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-new-people-nl-gain-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election",
   "title": "Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?",
   "category": "politics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-21T10:45:42+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 6052715.028636998,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 83,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-18T23:16:23.207872+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 204.82
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "NO",
    "wallets_on_side": 1,
    "wallets": 1,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-09-19T22:13:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.806
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  }
 ],
 "not_called": [
  {
   "slug": "mlb-lad-sf-2026-09-26",
   "title": "Mlb lad sf",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-26T23:19:20+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "mlb-atl-mia-2026-09-26",
   "title": "Mlb atl mia",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-26T23:13:05+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-15-20260810150912478",
   "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-23T23:32:46+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "mlb-min-sf-2026-09-23",
   "title": "Mlb min sf",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-23T22:48:01+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "atp-ratti-coria-2026-09-21",
   "title": "Atp ratti coria",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-22T23:06:41+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-switzerland-by-september-30-2026-20260622185050768",
   "title": "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-22T21:42:12+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-spd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-berlin-state-elections",
   "title": "Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-21T04:59:13+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-afd-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-berlin-state-elections",
   "title": "Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-09-21T04:36:10+00:00"
  }
 ],
 "method": "Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data.",
 "narrative": "For week 2026-W39 (September 21 to September 27), 26 tracked markets resolved. Of those, 18 had an AI verdict frozen before the market closed; the remaining 8 are not graded. This week, 8 of 11 BUY verdicts hit the outcome. The 7 HOLD verdicts are not calls and are not counted. Cumulatively, 221 of 316 BUY verdicts have hit the outcome, or 70%. With $1,000 placed on each call and held to resolution, that works out to an ROI of +0.5%. Another 180 HOLD verdicts are not counted, and 108 BUY verdicts are still open and awaiting resolution."
}