{
 "week": "2026-W41",
 "period": {
  "start": "2026-10-05",
  "end": "2026-10-11"
 },
 "generated_at": "2026-10-12T06:00:03.517950+00:00",
 "stake": 1000,
 "record_period": {
  "first": "2026-04-15",
  "last": "2026-10-09"
 },
 "open_buy_calls": 129,
 "resolved_this_week": 27,
 "resolved_total": 1368,
 "called_this_week": 22,
 "called_total": 551,
 "this_week": {
  "verdict": {
   "n": 14,
   "matched": 7,
   "pct": 50,
   "hold": 8,
   "pnl": {
    "calls": 14,
    "stake": 1000,
    "total": -4784.4,
    "roi_pct": -34.2
   },
   "by_category": {
    "other": {
     "n": 9,
     "matched": 5
    },
    "politics": {
     "n": 4,
     "matched": 1
    },
    "geopolitics": {
     "n": 1,
     "matched": 1
    }
   }
  }
 },
 "cumulative": {
  "verdict": {
   "n": 354,
   "matched": 251,
   "pct": 71,
   "hold": 196,
   "pnl": {
    "calls": 354,
    "stake": 1000,
    "total": 1380.36,
    "roi_pct": 0.4
   },
   "by_category": {
    "other": {
     "n": 114,
     "matched": 87
    },
    "geopolitics": {
     "n": 105,
     "matched": 78
    },
    "politics": {
     "n": 59,
     "matched": 43
    },
    "sports": {
     "n": 37,
     "matched": 22
    },
    "economics": {
     "n": 21,
     "matched": 12
    },
    "crypto": {
     "n": 16,
     "matched": 8
    },
    "science": {
     "n": 2,
     "matched": 1
    }
   }
  }
 },
 "excluded": {
  "invalid_or_unknown_outcome": 8,
  "no_call": 817,
  "hold_verdicts": 196,
  "verdict_after_close": 0
 },
 "rows": [
  {
   "slug": "will-scott-jennings-be-the-next-white-house-press-secretary-20260812211426417",
   "title": "Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-09T21:53:46+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 153637.54524199996,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 62,
    "frozen_at": "2026-08-22T01:38:52.115177+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 612.9
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-candidate-n-be-the-next-white-house-press-secretary-20260812210720674",
   "title": "Will  Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-09T21:50:40+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 94926.153991,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 80,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-12T23:19:36.092486+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 250.0
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-volodymyr-zelensky-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2026-637",
   "title": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-09T12:09:42+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 935224.4158839998,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 92,
    "frozen_at": "2026-07-06T00:43:50.341312+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 86.96
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
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   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-donald-trump-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2026-382",
   "title": "Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?",
   "category": "politics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-09T12:07:40+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 7958451.593404001,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 7,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-13T22:10:04.790664+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-7",
   "title": "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-08T23:24:56+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 523977.6674389999,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 94,
    "frozen_at": "2026-10-03T23:55:26.859115+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "mls-chi-vwh-2026-07-16-chi",
   "title": "Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-07-16?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-07T02:57:00+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 96733.87143800002,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 61,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-22T23:35:00.995885+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440",
   "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-06T15:49:59+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 12299800.912391998,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 70,
    "frozen_at": "2026-07-10T01:53:49.347628+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 428.57
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "NO",
    "wallets_on_side": 1,
    "wallets": 1,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-08-27T22:15:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.945
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-paramount-close-warner-bros-acquisition-by-end-of-2026",
   "title": "Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?",
   "category": "geopolitics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-06T15:30:15+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 183682.56439999994,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "BUY YES",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 70,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-13T22:10:04.762958+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 428.57
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-september-30-999-671-939",
   "title": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-06T15:26:33+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 4249239.902849001,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 93,
    "frozen_at": "2026-08-22T01:38:51.759407+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 75.27
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "NO",
    "wallets_on_side": 1,
    "wallets": 1,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-09-16T10:12:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.95
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-sergio-moro-win-the-governor-of-parana-election-20260608205122817",
   "title": "Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?",
   "category": "politics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-06T14:41:42+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 210881.533777,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "BUY YES",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 75,
    "frozen_at": "2026-08-26T00:12:32.796698+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": true,
    "pnl": 333.33
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "YES",
    "wallets_on_side": 1,
    "wallets": 1,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-10-01T22:17:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.775
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-by-october-31",
   "title": "Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-06T12:33:28+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 643183.6491569998,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 50,
    "frozen_at": "2026-10-05T23:51:24.550037+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-by-october-15",
   "title": "Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-06T11:41:25+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 456306.14634200017,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 51,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-26T23:37:26.269201+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-mamdani-freeze-nyc-rents-before-2027",
   "title": "Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-06T01:15:00.367286+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 294181.5971109999,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 33,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-23T23:41:15.915362+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-openais-valuation-hit-high-1pt0t-by-december-31-846-461",
   "title": "Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?",
   "category": "other",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-05T19:28:55+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 138909.028003,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 19,
    "frozen_at": "2026-06-13T03:08:45.649557+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-renan-santos-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election",
   "title": "Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
   "category": "politics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-05T12:25:40+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 17121884.170470994,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 93,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-13T22:10:04.439662+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": {
    "side": "NO",
    "wallets_on_side": 2,
    "wallets": 2,
    "snapshot_at": "2026-08-15T22:11:00+00:00",
    "entry_price": 0.941
   },
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-flvio-bolsonaro-finish-in-second-place-in-the-first-round-of-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election",
   "title": "Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
   "category": "politics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-05T07:30:41+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 2674006.06113,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "BUY YES",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 86,
    "frozen_at": "2026-08-24T01:06:38.244851+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-renan-santos-win-the-first-round-of-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election",
   "title": "Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
   "category": "politics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-05T04:48:10+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 223171.17960699997,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 95,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-18T00:46:57.261523+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-flavio-bolsonaro-win-the-most-votes-in-the-first-round-of-the-2026-brazil-presidential-election",
   "title": "Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?",
   "category": "politics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-05T03:40:14+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 2618505.136829998,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "BUY NO",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 74,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-26T23:37:25.801665+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-lula-win-the-most-votes-in-the-first-round-of-the-2026-brazil-presidential-election",
   "title": "Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?",
   "category": "politics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-05T03:40:14+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 3409754.557964002,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "BUY YES",
    "call": true,
    "entry_c": 71,
    "frozen_at": "2026-09-18T23:16:24.110429+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": false,
    "matched": false,
    "pnl": -1000.0
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-flavio-bolsonaro-qualify-for-brazils-presidential-runoff",
   "title": "Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?",
   "category": "politics",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-05T03:33:56+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 100,
   "volume_at_close": 269404.27676999994,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "YES",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 93,
    "frozen_at": "2026-08-30T00:10:46.272727+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-fernando-haddad-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election",
   "title": "Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
   "category": "politics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-05T02:52:11.964963+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 7739832.271963001,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 95,
    "frozen_at": "2026-04-15T00:59:39.352883+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-any-presidential-candidate-win-outright-in-the-first-round-of-the-brazil-election",
   "title": "Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?",
   "category": "politics",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-05T02:48:56+00:00",
   "final_price_c": 0,
   "volume_at_close": 1452788.8026790007,
   "verdict": {
    "side": "NO",
    "direction": "HOLD",
    "call": false,
    "entry_c": 93,
    "frozen_at": "2026-08-31T10:17:15.379179+00:00",
    "source": "first_publish",
    "side_hit": true,
    "matched": null,
    "pnl": null
   },
   "wallet_side": null,
   "verdict_after_close": false,
   "called": true
  }
 ],
 "not_called": [
  {
   "slug": "will-yulia-navalnaya-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2026-261",
   "title": "Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-09T12:08:10+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "mlb-cle-cws-2026-10-07",
   "title": "Mlb cle cws",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-07T23:43:34+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "atp-clarke-piraino-2026-10-05",
   "title": "Atp clarke piraino",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-06T23:03:11+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-qualify-for-brazils-presidential-runoff",
   "title": "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?",
   "won": "YES",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-05T03:33:56+00:00"
  },
  {
   "slug": "will-tarcisio-de-frietas-qualify-for-brazils-presidential-runoff",
   "title": "Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?",
   "won": "NO",
   "closed_at": "2026-10-05T03:33:56+00:00"
  }
 ],
 "method": "Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed — at first publication or in the nightly record. BUY YES / BUY NO is graded against the outcome with $1,000 staked and held to resolution; HOLD means the radar looked and did not enter: it is shown, never graded or staked. Markets without a verdict on file are counted, not listed. INVALID resolutions and verdicts recorded after the close are excluded. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call; each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data.",
 "narrative": "Week 2026-W41 (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-11). Tracked markets resolved this week: 27, of which 22 had an AI verdict frozen before the close; the rest are not graded. BUY verdicts this week: 7 of 14 hit the outcome; 8 HOLD verdicts are not calls. Cumulative: 251 of 354 BUY verdicts hit (71%), ROI +0.4% with $1,000 on each call held to resolution, 196 HOLD not counted, 129 BUY verdicts still open."
}