Which is better, Kalshi or Polymarket?
It depends on your priorities. Polymarket offers wider market variety and higher liquidity on most categories, but requires crypto (USDC) for funding. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated with broader US availability and fiat deposits (bank, debit card), but has fewer markets and higher fees (1-7%). OddsShift tracks both platforms so you can compare odds side by side in real time.
Why can't Americans use Polymarket?
Polymarket previously faced CFTC regulatory challenges that restricted US access. In 2025, Polymarket re-entered the US market through a partnership with QCEX under updated compliance frameworks. Most US states now have access, though availability varies. Kalshi has been available to US residents since launch as a CFTC-designated contract market.
How did Kalshi overtake Polymarket?
Kalshi gained ground through CFTC regulation (allowing full US access), a CNN partnership, and aggressive market expansion into sports and economics. By early 2026, Kalshi reached a $20B+ valuation. However, Polymarket still maintains higher trading volume in most crypto and political categories.
Does Polymarket actually pay out?
Yes. Polymarket pays out in USDC (a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar). When a market resolves, winning shares pay $1.00 each. Payouts are automatic and typically processed within minutes of market resolution. Funds can be withdrawn to any crypto wallet.
How is Kalshi legal but not Polymarket?
Kalshi is registered with the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) as a designated contract market (DCM), making it fully legal for US residents. Polymarket originally operated on blockchain without CFTC registration, creating regulatory uncertainty. Polymarket has since re-entered the US market through regulated partnerships, though its compliance framework differs from Kalshi's direct CFTC designation.
Who is Polymarket's biggest competitor?
Kalshi is Polymarket's primary competitor. Both platforms traded billions in 2025-2026. Other emerging competitors include Opinion (which reached $6.4B volume in its first 50 days), FanDuel Predictions, and Robinhood prediction markets. OddsShift compares odds across platforms to find where they disagree.
Does Polymarket pay taxes on winnings?
Prediction market winnings are generally taxable. Kalshi issues 1099 tax forms for US users. Polymarket (USDC-based) requires self-reporting of crypto gains. Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
Where is Polymarket banned?
Polymarket's availability has expanded significantly since 2025. It now serves most US states through regulated partnerships. However, some jurisdictions with strict gambling or crypto regulations may restrict access. Kalshi, as a CFTC-regulated exchange, is available in all US states.
Is there something like Polymarket in the USA?
Yes. Kalshi is the most direct US alternative to Polymarket — it's CFTC-regulated and available in all US states. Other US-accessible options include FanDuel Predictions and Robinhood prediction markets. Polymarket itself has also re-entered the US market as of 2025.
Is Kalshi or Polymarket more accurate?
Neither has an independent large-sample answer yet. Both platforms publish their own calibration figures. OddsShift records both prices where the same event is listed on both, but the matched sample is still too small to support category-level comparisons, so we do not publish them.
Can you do arbitrage between Polymarket and Kalshi?
In principle: if the same event is priced differently and the combined cost of buying both sides is under $1.00, the difference is locked in. In practice fees, withdrawal costs, slippage and resolution-rule differences usually eat most gaps, and the same event is rarely listed on both platforms with identical rules. Treat a gap as a prompt to check, not a guaranteed profit.