Market Radar: What Prediction Markets Think Will Happen

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Diplomatic posturing has cooled with no direct U.S. military escalation despite regional tension. All 15 tracked smart wallets hold NO across $39.9M in volume, a durable structural consensus.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Regime's security apparatus remains intact despite sustained protests and sanctions pressure, keeping NO firmly priced. All 12 tracked smart wallets hold NO across $21.5M in volume.

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Putin remains firmly entrenched with no succession fight or elite fracture in sight, and his 2024 reelection locked in a term through 2030. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO across $16.7M in volume.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Fed minutes show a divided FOMC does not anticipate a cut before early 2027, making a July rate hold the base case at 78%.

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Xi's norm-breaking third term and absence of a named successor leave no institutional path to an early exit. The lone tracked wallet sits NO, matching $11.2M in volume that favors continuity.

95%

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Denmark and Greenland have flatly rejected Washington's repeated annexation overtures, leaving any 2026 handover near-impossible. Still, all 4 tracked smart wallets sit on YES against the 94% NO majority.

Trump out as President before 2027?

No impeachment proceedings or resignation pressure in motion, keeping removal odds near the floor despite $9.8M wagered. All 3 tracked smart wallets sit on the NO side, reinforcing the consensus.

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Despite regional tensions, Khamenei's grip on power shows no succession crisis, keeping YES bids thin. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO, aligned with the 84% consensus across $3.1M in volume.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Martial law bars wartime elections in Ukraine, keeping a leadership change off the table while the war grinds on. All three tracked smart-money wallets sit on NO, with $2.6M volume backing the status quo.

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

GameStop made an unsolicited, non-binding bid for eBay in May, but at 12% odds a completed acquisition looks unlikely.

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Pahlavi remains in exile abroad with no announced plan to return while Tehran's clerical government holds firm, leaving little runway before year-end. All 5 tracked smart wallets back NO across $1.9M in volume.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Midterm history favors the opposition, making a GOP hold of both chambers a long shot. Yet all 3 tracked smart wallets are positioned YES against the 86% NO crowd on $1.9M volume.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

A handover of Iran's enriched stockpile would require a negotiated deal, yet talks remain stalled with no framework agreed. All 4 tracked wallets hold NO, aligned with the $1.8M in one-sided volume.

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Rodríguez sits as Maduro's VP, and only his exit would elevate her — no such transition is underway. The single tracked smart wallet holds NO, echoing $1.7M in volume leaning against a handover.

US recession by end of 2026?

Resilient job growth and cooling inflation have kept recession fears muted heading into H2 2026. All 3 tracked smart wallets sit NO on $1.7M volume, signaling confidence in continued expansion.

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

Regional tensions cooled since the June Iran-Israel exchange, making a two-week airspace shutdown a tail risk. The lone tracked wallet sits NO, and $1.1M in volume backs the heavy skew.

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Past missile exchanges triggered only hours-long airspace closures, never a sustained shutdown. The single tracked smart wallet sits NO, aligned with the $1M market's heavy lean against closure.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

A signed nuclear accord within this narrow window looks unlikely, with Washington and Tehran yet to agree even a framework. All 5 tracked smart-money wallets sit on NO across $1M in volume.

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Talks remain intact, keeping a formal walkout priced as unlikely on $910K volume. Only one tracked smart wallet is positioned, on NO — a thin signal worth watching, not a strong consensus.

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?

No retirement signal from the 76-year-old justice with the July 15 deadline just days away. The single tracked smart wallet holds NO, aligned with $791K in volume leaning heavily against.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Stalled negotiations with no breakthrough at recent talks keep NO firmly ahead heading into H2 2026. All 3 tracked geopolitics wallets hold NO positions, backed by $678K in trading volume.

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

US-Iran tensions keep military escalation in play, yet a formal blockade this month reads as a low-probability tail. All 3 tracked smart wallets hold NO, backed by $605K in volume.

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?

Alito, 76, has given no public signal of stepping down, and speculation stays muted heading into the term's end. The one tracked smart wallet holds NO, echoing the 83% consensus against a retirement.

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Altman keeps saying an IPO isn't a priority as OpenAI leans on private mega-rounds after its 2025 for-profit restructuring. The single tracked smart wallet sits NO, aligned with the 76% skew on $414K volume.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Front lines stay largely frozen with no diplomatic breakthrough, keeping a near-term truce unlikely. Both tracked geopolitics wallets hold NO, echoing the $217K market's lean.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Stalled talks and ongoing front-line fighting make a near-term truce unlikely heading into H2 2026. Both tracked wallets hold NO across $199K in volume, reinforcing low odds of a deal.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?

Repeated peace talks have stalled without a durable truce, keeping traders doubtful a deal lands this window. The lone tracked wallet holds NO, in step with $144K of volume leaning against agreement.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

June FOMC minutes show a divided Fed leaning toward rate hikes to curb inflation, but markets see a July increase as unlikely.

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

A fringe contender with minimal establishment backing faces long odds against Brazil's better-known frontrunners. Both tracked smart wallets sit NO, and $7.9M in volume reinforces the bearish lean.

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Flávio Bolsonaro trails incumbent Lula in Brazil's 2026 race, and markets give him just a 22% chance of winning.

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

United Russia has topped every State Duma election since 2003 with a supermajority; state media control makes another first-place win the base case.

Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Hamilton's second Ferrari campaign has him chasing the frontrunners, keeping his title odds a long shot despite $5.0M in volume. The lone tracked smart wallet sits NO, matching the market's heavy lean against him.

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 34%: US strike on Cuba by December 31. Currently, markets are divided (34% YES, 66% NO).

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

The president's party has lost House seats in nearly every midterm since 1934, keeping GOP control a long shot. All 5 tracked smart wallets hold NO across $3.8M in volume.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

California wealth-tax proposals have repeatedly stalled in the legislature and face constitutional hurdles. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO, with $3.5M in volume signaling conviction against passage.

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

Bitcoin sits well above $45,000, and traders price a 64% chance it avoids that steep a drop before December 31, 2026.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES).

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei's absence from his father's funeral raised succession doubts, yet markets price him 83% likely to lead Iran by end of 2026.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

No framework deal has emerged with under two months left to the deadline, making a comprehensive agreement unlikely. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO across $2.5M in volume — firm conviction, no dissent.

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

California hasn't elected a Republican governor since Schwarzenegger in 2006, leaving Hilton a steep climb in a deep-blue state. The single tracked smart wallet holds NO, in line with $2.5M in volume.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Repeated ceasefire rounds have collapsed without a lasting framework, keeping a signed deal a distant prospect. All 3 tracked smart wallets sit on NO, backed by $2.4M in volume showing firm conviction.

Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?

OpenSea's long-teased token airdrop set expectations high, but comparable NFT-platform launches have struggled to hold ten-figure valuations on day one. The lone tracked wallet sits NO, echoing the 84% skew.

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Sticky inflation and a resilient labor market keep the Fed on hold, pricing near-zero odds of even one 2026 cut. Both tracked smart wallets sit NO, backed by $2M in volume.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Tehran has resisted any handover in negotiations, keeping the market firmly at 85% NO. Yet three geopolitics wallets are positioned YES against the crowd — a contrarian signal on $1.9M volume.

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Ongoing corruption trial and coalition strains persist, but Netanyahu still holds his Knesset majority. All three tracked smart-money wallets sit on NO across $1.9M in volume.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Front lines around Crimea have stayed frozen with no Ukrainian breakthrough, keeping recapture odds pinned near single digits. The lone tracked smart wallet sits NO, echoing the 90% skew across $1.7M in volume.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Split-Congress outcome rests on the GOP's favorable 2026 Senate map holding while Democrats ride the midterm swing to retake the House. All 4 tracked wallets sit YES, above the 40% market price.

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Water-cannon standoffs near Scarborough Shoal keep tensions high, but neither side has fired a shot. Both tracked smart wallets sit on NO, aligned with $1.3M in volume betting against open conflict.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Washington revoked Iran's oil-sale waiver as new satellite images show activity at a buried nuclear site, keeping odds at 78% NO.

Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?

LeBron remains tied to the Lakers, making a Heat move a long-shot despite recurring trade chatter. Just one tracked wallet leans YES against $1.1M in mostly-NO volume — thin, contrarian conviction.

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

A slide to $40K would mean a deep drawdown, and the market treats that as a low-odds tail scenario. Both smart wallets hold NO, in line with $1.1M of volume leaning against the dip.

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Six days from the July 15 deadline, Iranian airspace remains open, keeping expectations low. The single tracked smart wallet holds NO, matching the $1.1M market's 79% lean.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Iran has advanced enrichment but no test and no clear political trigger, leaving a 2027 detonation a tail risk. The lone tracked wallet holds NO, aligned with the $1.1M market's near-certain fade.

95%

Science

New pandemic in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: New pandemic in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Nobel winners are announced in October, and stalled ceasefire diplomacy makes a wartime laureate unlikely despite Zelenskyy's nominations. Only one tracked wallet is positioned here, holding NO.

Crypto

Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?

Bitcoin closed red Tuesday after a six-bar green streak, but a fall to $30,000 means a deep crash markets rate just 10% likely.

Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Traders lean NO at 68%, doubting Puffpaw clears a $200M fully diluted valuation on its first day of trading.

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Ongoing war in Ukraine and periodic airspace incursions keep escalation fears alive, but direct alliance-wide conflict remains a tail risk. The sole tracked smart wallet sits on NO, aligning with $555K in mostly bearish flow.

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

Speculation focuses on whether the 76-year-old justice steps down while Republicans hold the Senate, but he's signaled no intent. The lone tracked wallet sits NO, matching the 70% skew on $554K volume.

Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?

Count Binface is a satirical protest candidate who has never won an elected seat, and markets price him at just 7% to break that streak.

93%

Crypto

Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?

OpenSea's long-awaited token launch has traders skeptical a $2B first-day FDV is reachable given cooling NFT-sector demand. The lone tracked smart wallet sits NO, aligned with the 92% consensus across $517K in volume.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

No sitting president has resigned since Nixon in 1974, anchoring expectations firmly against it. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO, with $499K in volume reinforcing that consensus.

Sports

Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Norway reached the World Cup quarterfinals on Haaland's brace against Brazil, but two more knockout wins to reach the final remain a steep ask.

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

Oman remains the favored broker for US-Iran backchannels, leaving Qatar a long-shot venue. The lone tracked wallet holds NO, in line with $466K in volume tilting bearish.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

No direct US-Iran talks are scheduled with just eight days left on the clock, keeping odds firmly low. The single tracked smart wallet holds a NO position, and $466K in volume reinforces the skeptical lean.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?

A comprehensive deal by the tight September deadline looks unlikely with no framework yet agreed. The one tracked smart wallet holds NO, aligning with the $464K book's bearish lean.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Fed officials signaled one rate hike then a pause, leaving September 25 bps odds at just 38% with markets favoring no change.

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

OpenAI's for-profit restructuring keeps an IPO possible, but Altman has flagged no near-term listing at a $1t valuation on this timeline. The one tracked wallet holds NO across $293K in volume.

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027.

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

Fed's hold-to-cut stance keeps a hike off the table barring an inflation resurgence before July. The single tracked smart wallet and $286K in volume both lean NO.

Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026?

LPL teams own multiple past MSI titles, but LCK's recent international dominance keeps China priced as the underdog. Just one tracked wallet is positioned, leaning NO — thin signal on a single data point.

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Alberta has scheduled no independence referendum for 2026, and separatist sentiment stays a fringe minority, so a vote this year is highly unlikely.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027.

Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Trump is weighing scrapping the vague two-page Iran MOU amid renewed war tensions, but a formal withdrawal announcement by July 31 stays unlikely at 22%.

H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?

The SAVE Act passed the House but stalled in the Senate, where it needs 60 votes with no Democratic backing to advance. The lone tracked smart wallet holds NO, aligning with the market's $172K volume.

Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?

Garlinghouse has repeatedly downplayed near-term IPO plans, citing Ripple's cash-rich balance sheet after its SEC settlement. The single tracked wallet holds NO on $151K volume.

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

Musk has floated uniting his ventures, but SpaceX stays private with no formal board filing and a tight September 30 deadline. The lone tracked wallet and $143K in volume both sit on NO.

Major CEX insolvent in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Major CEX insolvent in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?

Erdoğan's mandate runs to 2028 and his bloc lacks the parliamentary supermajority to force an early vote. The one tracked smart wallet on $127K volume is positioned NO.

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Traders expect the Fed to stay the course across the April, June and July meetings after recent holds. Only one smart wallet backs a policy shift, while the bulk of $120K volume favors continuity.

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?

SBF's family has lobbied Trump for clemency on his 25-year fraud sentence, but no pardon signal has emerged. The single tracked wallet holds NO, matching thin conviction on a long-shot outcome.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Elevated insurance premiums and rerouting continue to hold tanker transits below normal amid unresolved regional tensions. All 3 smart wallets tracked on $110K volume are positioned NO against a full recovery.

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

Daily Hormuz transits have run below the 60-ship mark amid lingering regional tension, keeping that threshold out of reach so far. The single tracked smart wallet holds NO, echoing the $104K in volume.

Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Hegseth stays on as Defense Secretary amid ongoing Pentagon turnover, with traders pricing a low chance of an early exit. The single tracked smart wallet holds NO, and $103K volume signals thin conviction.

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Musk has floated combining his ventures, but no board vote or SEC filing points to a formal tie-up. Only one tracked wallet is positioned, sitting NO, and $72K volume signals thin conviction either way.

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 32%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31. Currently, markets are divided (32% YES, 68% NO).

Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES).

95%

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?

Tariff disputes and repeated missed deadlines have stalled India-U.S. negotiations. The lone tracked wallet holds NO, and thin $62K volume signals low market conviction.

Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?

White House visits are typically reserved for title-winning teams, leaving the Seahawks a long shot without a Super Bowl run. The lone tracked wallet holds NO, aligning with the 70% bearish tilt on $57K volume.

Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?

Saylor's 2024 DC tax-fraud case ended in a $40M civil settlement with no criminal referral, keeping federal-charge odds low. Thin $55K volume and the lone tracked wallet both sit NO.

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Incumbent Lula enters October's first-round vote favored but facing a fragmented right-wing field. All 3 tracked smart wallets hold NO — a contrarian bet against the crowd on $7.3M volume.

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

The FOMC's June minutes show a divided Fed expecting no rate cut before early 2027, with soft jobs data and easing oil prices reinforcing the pause.

Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?

GTA 6 ships this November, while bitcoin near $100K needs a 10x in months — launching a game is the easier feat, so NO edges ahead.

50%

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Midterm dynamics favor the out-party, keeping Democrats heavily bid. Yet all 7 tracked smart wallets are positioned NO on $4.5M volume — a contrarian divergence from the crowd.

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Antonelli's strong midseason form at Mercedes keeps him narrowly favored in the title fight. Only one tracked smart wallet is positioned, all YES, so the $3.7M volume reflects crowd sentiment more than alpha conviction.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Betting has tilted toward tighter policy as $3.6M in volume piles into the 2026 Fed path debate. Both tracked smart-money wallets sit on NO, wagering against another hike despite the crowd's 60% lean.

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

The 2026 Senate map favors Republicans, making a Democratic sweep of both chambers hard even if the House flips. All 5 tracked wallets sit NO on $2.1M volume, doubting a double-chamber trifecta.

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Maduro has held power despite US sanctions and post-2024-election pressure, with no credible ouster mechanism in sight. All 4 tracked wallets sit on YES, backed by $2.1M volume.

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

Traders sit near 50/50 on BTC revisiting $50K, a level that would mark a steep drawdown from current prices. Only one tracked smart wallet is positioned, leaning NO — thin conviction behind the $1.9M volume.

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democrats face a tough 2026 map, defending more competitive seats than they can flip to retake the chamber. All three tracked smart-money wallets are positioned NO on $1.8M in volume.

Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Puffpaw's day-one FDV hinges on float size and launch demand, leaving the $100M mark a genuine coin-flip at even odds.

50%

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Becerra leads a crowded Democratic field with $1.7M in volume backing YES. All 7 tracked smart wallets sit on NO, betting against the frontrunner despite the lopsided price.

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Republicans hold a slim Senate majority and defend fewer toss-up seats in 2026, keeping the outcome close. All 3 tracked smart wallets sit on NO despite $1.4M in volume leaning YES.

Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?

LeBron-to-Cleveland reunion talk keeps the market near a coin flip on $1.2M in volume. Two tracked smart-money wallets lean YES, cutting against the slight NO edge in the current price.

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Nvidia's stock is up just 4.5% this year, and fading AI-beneficiary sentiment leaves its title as the world's most valuable company genuinely contested.

Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

Sinner sits as the clear tournament favorite on $741K in traded volume. The lone tracked smart wallet is positioned NO — a thin contrarian signal cutting against the market's YES majority.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Stalled backchannel signals and regional friction have kept the odds near a coin flip. Only one tracked smart wallet has taken a side—NO—so despite $734K in volume, the conviction signal is thin.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Six months into 2026 with no market-defining shock, the status-quo bet stays firm on $646K volume. The lone tracked wallet holds NO, a contrarian bet a major event still lands by year-end.

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

No S-1 filed and Sam Altman keeps downplaying a near-term listing amid OpenAI's for-profit restructuring. Only one tracked wallet holds NO — a lone contrarian bet an IPO still lands by year-end.

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

Xi last visited the US in November 2023 for APEC; with trade talks and summit diplomacy ongoing, markets price a 94% chance he returns before 2027.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Recent inflation prints keep Fed policymakers cautious, tilting the September meeting toward a hold. The lone tracked smart wallet sits NO on $406K volume — betting on a rate move against the crowd.

Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 66%: Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026. Currently, markets are divided (66% YES, 34% NO).

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

Persistent warmth as La Niña fades keeps 2026 tracking just behind record-setting 2024. Only one tracked wallet is positioned, holding NO, too thin to read as a real smart-money signal.

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Trump called the Iran ceasefire over after strikes, and reports say Tehran is dragging out talks as the 60-day deadline looks unlikely to hold.

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Sanders-backed progressive campaign and grassroots fundraising keep him leading the crowded primary field. The lone smart-money wallet holds a contrarian NO — a thin, low-conviction signal.

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

Naval blockade would mark a sharp escalation beyond current US-Iran sanctions, keeping the market near a coin-flip. Only one tracked wallet is positioned, on NO—too thin to read as real consensus.

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Sticky inflation and hawkish Fed signals keep an autumn tightening live, holding the market near a coin flip. Both smart wallets tracking this sit YES, and $178K in volume tilts toward a hike.

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

Gen Z-led protests demanding Akhannouch's resignation over health and jobs keep coalition pressure high. One tracked wallet holds YES; $165K volume signals conviction but thin smart-money confirmation.

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

Repeated US-China negotiation rounds have signaled tariff de-escalation, keeping YES dominant. Only one tracked wallet is positioned here, backing YES on modest $147K volume.

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Sticky inflation has kept the Fed on hold, pushing the consecutive-pause scenario to a strong favorite. Both smart wallets tracked here fade that view, positioned NO against $140K in volume.

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Fed held rates steady through mid-2026, leaving traders split on whether Jul, Sep, or Oct breaks the pattern. The lone smart wallet sits NO on $88K volume, betting on continuity.

50%

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?

OpenAI's $852B March valuation sits just 6% shy of $900B, and BofA's first $520M pre-IPO loan signals accelerating investor demand.

93%

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 76%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (76% YES).

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

Markets are split on this outcome at 48% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $58K in volume.

Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?

LeBron remains under contract with the Lakers for 2026-27, leaving no clear path to Golden State despite offseason trade chatter. Both tracked smart wallets sit NO, aligned with the 83% consensus on $1.1M volume.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Despite $4.6M in volume pushing the price toward YES, shipping recovery remains contested. All 6 tracked smart wallets are positioned NO, diverging sharply from the 58% crowd consensus.