Live probabilities for major world events — elections, wars, crypto, economics. Powered by real-time data from Polymarket and Kalshi.
PRO subscribers also get: smart money positioning, AI verdicts, entry targets
Markets repriced after March 22 court ruling cleared Trump’s legal path. 5 of 12 wallets are politics top-5 specialists who called 9 of last 10 primaries correctly.
Cross-platform gap widening as Kalshi traders overweight recent CPI data. Polymarket institutional flow suggests steady rates — gap historically closes in 9.8 days.
Smart money positioning against ceasefire deadline despite diplomatic signals. Three top-10 geopolitics wallets entered NO positions within 48 hours of each other.
Moderate edge with weak convergence. Only 2 of 5 frameworks agree — macro models bearish while on-chain metrics suggest accumulation phase.