Market Radar: What Prediction Markets Think Will Happen

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Despite sustained sanctions and sporadic unrest, Tehran's security apparatus remains intact, keeping collapse odds low. All 12 tracked smart wallets hold NO, backed by $24.8M in volume.

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Succession chatter persists amid regional pressure, but no imminent trigger has materialized. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO across $4.1M volume, signaling low conviction in near-term change.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES).

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Iran-Oman talks on Hormuz shipping lanes are in final stages, yet markets give just 29% odds traffic normalizes by December 31.

Trump out as President before 2027?

Carville insists Trump will exit by Easter 2027, yet markets give just a 6% chance he leaves office before then.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Denmark and Greenland have flatly rejected Trump's repeated annexation push, leaving no path to a sovereignty transfer this year. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO across $10.6M in volume.

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Succession speculation around 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has elevated his son as the presumed heir. All 7 tracked geopolitics wallets sit on the YES side across $6.1M in volume.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Midterm history favors the out-party and Republicans' thin House majority makes a Democratic flip the base case. Yet all 8 tracked smart wallets hold NO, betting against the 88% crowd.

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will GameStop acquire eBay. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Prediction markets put the probability at 38%: 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House. Currently, markets are divided (38% YES, 62% NO).

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

March 2024 re-election locked Putin's term through 2030, with no credible succession or health signal pointing to an early exit. All four tracked wallets hold NO across $19.5M in volume.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Martial law bars wartime elections in Ukraine, keeping his incumbency intact despite a term that formally lapsed in 2024. All 4 tracked smart wallets sit on NO across a $3.1M market — firm consensus.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 20%: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31.

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Barcelona teenager Yamal trades as a long shot, trailing established front-runners despite his breakout profile. The single tracked smart wallet holds NO, aligning with the $1.9M market's 84% lean against him.

US recession by end of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: US recession by end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: China x Japan military clash before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Talks have repeatedly stalled with no durable framework agreed as fighting continues into late 2026. Both tracked wallets sit on NO, matching $862K of volume that favors no deal.

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Altman has repeatedly signaled no near-term IPO as OpenAI digests its for-profit restructuring. The single tracked wallet sits NO, aligning with the 83% consensus across $467K in volume.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Russia holds battlefield momentum and shows little urgency to halt fighting, keeping a year-end ceasefire unlikely despite mounting sanctions pressure.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Stalled talks and ongoing frontline combat keep a near-term truce priced as unlikely. Just one tracked wallet is positioned NO, so smart-money conviction is thin against $326K in volume.

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026.

Gemini 4.0 released by August 31, 2026?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 7c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Traders lean toward a Fed hold in September, keeping hike odds near 30% amid the cooling-inflation debate. The single tracked smart wallet sits NO, matching the $9.3M in volume tilting against a hike.

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

With his father Jair barred from running until 2030, Flávio has emerged as the Bolsonaro family's likely standard-bearer, keeping YES bid up on $8.8M volume. Both tracked smart wallets sit on YES.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

The CLARITY Act cleared the House in July 2025 but still awaits Senate passage, keeping a 2026 signing uncertain.

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

United Russia has held a Duma supermajority since 2021, with tight media control and most opposition barred from ballots ahead of the 2026 vote. Both tracked smart wallets sit on YES across $7.7M in volume.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Shipping insurers keep the corridor flagged high-risk as tanker traffic stays diverted, keeping a return to normal flow unlikely by month-end. All 8 tracked smart wallets hold NO, backed by $5.2M in volume.

Crypto

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

A slide to $45,000 would mark a deep drawdown, and $5.1M in volume is pricing that scenario as unlikely. The single tracked smart wallet also holds NO, aligning with the broader market's downside skepticism.

Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES).

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Heightened US-Cuba rhetoric keeps a small floor under YES, but no actual military mobilization has surfaced. All three tracked smart wallets hold NO positions, aligning with the $5.1M volume's bearish tilt.

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Historic midterm losses for the sitting president's party are pricing Democrats to flip the narrow GOP majority. All 5 tracked smart wallets hold NO, aligned with $4.2M in volume.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Proposition 40, a one-time billionaire wealth tax, qualified for California's November 3, 2026 ballot, yet markets price passage at just 28%.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Heightened U.S. rhetoric toward Cuba keeps a thin YES bid alive, but no troop movements or formal threats have materialized. All 5 tracked smart wallets hold NO across $3.3M in volume.

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Coalition strain and ongoing corruption trials cloud his path to another term despite incumbency. All 3 tracked smart wallets are positioned NO on $3.1M volume, signaling consensus against a return.

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

Bitcoin trades well above $50,000, and markets give only an 18% chance it dips there by December 31, 2026.

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Markets are split on this outcome at 46% YES. 6 smart wallets positioned YES — watch for convergence.

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion.

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027.

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Markets are split on this outcome at 50% YES. 3 smart wallets positioned NO — watch for convergence.

50%

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Houthi Red Sea attacks have rerouted shipping around Africa but never fully sealed the chokepoint. Both tracked wallets sit on NO across $2.1M in volume, betting on continued passage.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026.

Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch.

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).

Crypto

Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31.

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Cuban regime falls in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES).

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Hamas says it reached a disarmament deal, but 70% odds favor NO, reflecting deep doubt it fully disarms by December 31.

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 35%: Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. Currently, markets are divided (35% YES, 65% NO).

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

With no US signal to lift the Iranian naval blockade and tensions still elevated, a reversal before the Q3 deadline looks unlikely. All 3 tracked smart wallets sit on NO across $1.2M in volume.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

IAEA monitoring and stalled enrichment talks keep a weaponized breakout a low-odds tail bet through 2027. The single tracked wallet holding NO aligns with the durable status-quo edge that has kept this priced near 95%.

95%

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?

Gold futures settled near $4,240 in late August, needing a ~41% surge to reach $6,000 by December, so markets price it at just 13%.

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?

No film has ever grossed $900m domestically within a month of release, and only Force Awakens ever crossed $900m domestic at all.

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Traders are pricing a Fed hold into the September meeting, leaning roughly two-to-one against tightening. All 6 tracked smart-money wallets sit on NO across $896K in volume, reinforcing the hold thesis.

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?

WTI briefly topped $95 Thursday on U.S.-Iran military escalation, but holding above that level through month-end remains unlikely at 22%.

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

Clemency chatter followed DOJ interviews with Maxwell, but no formal pardon signal emerged. The lone smart wallet tracked here holds NO, aligning with the 94% consensus across $745K volume.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Kyiv has repeatedly rejected any formal, legal cession of land despite stalled ceasefire talks, keeping YES pinned in single digits. The lone tracked smart wallet sits NO, aligned with the $700K book.

Crypto

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?

Bitcoin sits well below $85K with little runway left in August, making the strike a stretch. The lone tracked smart wallet holds NO, and $658K in volume leans firmly bearish.

Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Clearing a $200M day-one valuation is a steep bar for the new crypto token; $619K in volume leans bearish. The single tracked smart wallet holds a NO position, aligning with the 82% skew.

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?

WTI crude trades far below $100 with only days left in August, making a spike to that level highly unlikely before month's end.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Backchannel signals persist but no direct meeting has materialized, keeping the market tilted toward NO. Three tracked smart-money wallets hold contrarian YES against the crowd on $479K volume.

Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?

ETH remains far below the $5,000 mark with limited runway before the December 31 deadline, keeping YES odds compressed. Heavy $450K volume and the lone tracked smart wallet both sit on NO.

Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?

Infantino has led FIFA since 2016 with no serious challenger, keeping an exit by December 31 unlikely at 18%.

Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?

STRC still sits below the $100 mark with a narrowing window before the September 30 deadline. Both tracked smart wallets hold NO on $372K volume, reinforcing the market's lean toward the target falling short.

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Tehran has threatened toll charges on Hormuz shipping but taken no formal action, keeping NO firmly ahead. Just one tracked wallet is positioned, backing NO, on $372K volume — thin conviction behind the current lean.

Kash Patel out by December 31?

Removal chatter around the FBI director persists, but NO holds a firm 3-to-1 edge. Only one tracked wallet leans YES — a thin contrarian signal against $356K in volume favoring the status quo.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Court-martial appeal ruling and Pentagon leadership rumors kept resignation odds low; no formal step-down process has begun. The lone tracked wallet with a $352K market backing NO aligns with the 80% consensus against removal.

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Fed held steady in Jun–Jul, and $340K volume prices continuity through Sep. The lone tracked wallet bets YES on a shift — thin, contrarian signal against a 68% NO majority.

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

With five weeks left, no filing or board vote has surfaced and Musk has floated but never formalized a Tesla-SpaceX tie-up. The lone tracked wallet holds NO, matching $338K of volume against it.

Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?

Ongoing document releases have produced no new charges against named individuals, keeping YES pinned low. The single tracked smart wallet sits on NO, in line with the $333K volume skew.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?

No signed maritime pact and talks stalled with the August 31 deadline near. The single tracked smart wallet holds NO, aligned with $314K in volume tilted firmly toward no deal.

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Markets expect steady policy as inflation cools, making three straight unchanged Fed decisions the base case. The single tracked smart wallet holds NO, and $311K in volume leans the same direction.

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

OpenAI remains privately held with no filed IPO timeline, and Altman has downplayed any near-term listing. The single tracked wallet across $298K volume sits NO, aligning with the 85% skew.

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Water-cannon and ramming clashes near Second Thomas Shoal keep tensions high, yet both sides avoid lethal escalation. Both tracked wallets hold NO, betting on standoff over open conflict.

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 34%: Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027.

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

Cross-strait tensions stayed rhetorical through 2026 with no naval quarantine declared, keeping this pinned near status-quo NO. The lone tracked wallet sits NO, and $261K of volume shows firm conviction against escalation.

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Alberta's separatist petition drive under Premier Smith needs ~177K signatures to force a referendum, keeping odds low. The lone tracked wallet holds NO, in line with $256K in volume.

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

Supreme Leader Khamenei remains entrenched despite ongoing regional tensions, keeping regime-change odds subdued. The lone tracked smart wallet sits NO, consistent with $248K in volume favoring the status quo.

Iran full airspace closure by September 30?

Regional tensions have kept airspace-closure fears alive, but Iran has avoided a full shutdown despite prior escalations. Thin smart-money coverage—one tracked wallet—sits NO, aligned with $194K of volume favoring no closure.

H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

No comprehensive U.S.-Iran deal exists yet, and any accord still faces Security Council veto risk before year-end. Both tracked wallets sit NO, aligned with $176K in volume leaning heavily against.

Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?

Erdoğan's term runs to 2028, and only a 60% parliamentary supermajority can trigger an early vote—an unlikely bar for 2026.

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 39%: Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31. Currently, markets are divided (39% YES, 61% NO).

Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31.

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 24%: Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (24% YES).

Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Ripple Labs IPO before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Iran full airspace closure by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 27%: Iran full airspace closure by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (27% YES).

JD Vance out as VP by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: JD Vance out as VP by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 72%: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting.

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31.

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Markets are split on this outcome at 56% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $127K in volume.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

No VEI-6 event since Pinatubo in 1991 keeps this pinned to a rare base rate. The single tracked wallet holds NO, with $128K volume backing the status quo.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES).

Russia coup attempt in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Russia coup attempt in 2026.

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?

Labor market resilience has held unemployment below the 5.0% mark, with little sign of sharp deterioration this year. Just one tracked wallet is positioned—NO—on $123K volume.

Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 24%: Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027.

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31.

Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 30%: Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (30% YES).

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 27%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (27% YES).

Iran coup attempt by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Iran coup attempt by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?

Unemployment has hovered near 4% through 2026, leaving a wide gap to the 6.0% threshold. Thin $76K volume and the lone tracked smart wallet both sit firmly on NO.

Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?

GOP strategist and CNN pundit Scott Jennings drew buzz as a contender, but no official nomination has surfaced. The lone tracked smart wallet sits on NO amid thin $59K volume.

Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).

Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026.

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Avengers: Doomsday be the #1 searched movie on Google this year. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

With inflation easing toward target, traders expect the Fed to hold rates steady in September rather than resume cuts. All 9 tracked smart wallets sit on YES, backed by $10.1M in volume.

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Lula enters the October 4 vote as the incumbent frontrunner, and early polling backs a narrow reelection edge over his rivals.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Persistent inflation and a resilient labor market have kept a hike in play despite earlier cut bets, splitting the market near 56/44. All 5 tracked smart wallets back YES, aligning with the $7.9M in volume.

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Sticky inflation and a hawkish Fed kept rates on hold through mid-2026. Both tracked smart wallets sit on NO — a contrarian bet that at least one cut still lands this year.

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Strong early-season form keeps the young Mercedes driver as the market's clear title favorite. Only one tracked smart wallet is positioned — YES — on $4.0M volume, a thin conviction signal.

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Kane's prolific goalscoring keeps him favored, though the award historically rewards Champions League and major-trophy campaigns. Only one tracked smart wallet is positioned, backing YES on $3.7M in volume.

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Markets strongly favor this outcome at 86% YES. 5 smart wallets positioned YES — watch for convergence.

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Markets are split on this outcome at 48% YES. 3 smart wallets positioned NO — watch for convergence.

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Markets are split on this outcome at 57% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $1.6M in volume.

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Markets are split on this outcome at 50% YES. 4 smart wallets positioned NO — watch for convergence.

50%

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

Frozen US-Iran channels and stalled nuclear talks leave no meeting on the calendar. $917K traded, but the lone tracked wallet holds NO, betting diplomacy breaks through before the deadline.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

De-escalation signals between Washington and Tehran have tilted sentiment toward a lift this year. Both tracked smart wallets sit YES, aligned with the market's $867K in volume.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Status-quo bets dominate this "no major catastrophe" market, with YES climbing to 82% as 2026 stays quiet through August. Thin conviction signal: just one tracked wallet is positioned, also on YES.

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Marvel's Spider-Man reboot leads 2026's box-office slate as rival tentpoles trail early projections. All 3 tracked wallets hold YES on $614K volume — a firm consensus.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Iran's Strait of Hormuz ship attacks remain its core war leverage, so a US blockade-end announcement by October 31 stays a coin-flip at 42%.

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

Reported funding rounds pushing Anthropic's valuation past $180B have fueled IPO speculation, lifting YES 10+ points. A single tracked wallet sits YES, and $552K volume signals conviction over a coin-flip. Character count: ~197.

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Traders are pricing the Fed to hold steady into the fall, leaving a hike the minority outcome. All 3 tracked smart wallets sit YES on $493K volume, betting against the crowd.

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Financial Times reported Anthropic could launch its IPO as soon as October 2026 near a $1 trillion valuation, supporting the 88% YES.

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Soaring valuation and repeated mega-funding rounds keep IPO speculation high. Both tracked smart wallets hold YES positions, with $464K in volume reinforcing the tilt.

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

OpenAI has filed no S-1 and Altman has called a public listing not a near-term priority after its recent restructuring. The single tracked wallet sits YES, aligning with the $453K volume lean.

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?

Domestic box office tracking has landed the film squarely in the 800m–900m band, keeping the outcome tight as the August 31 deadline nears. With $351K in volume, the lone smart wallet tracked is positioned YES.

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire in April 2026, and with no strikes since, the truce looks likely to hold through September 30.

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Fed held steady in June and July as inflation cooled, leaving a third straight September pause needed to complete the streak. Both tracked smart wallets took NO on $298K volume, betting the run breaks.

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

No fresh US-Iran strikes since the June truce, keeping the ceasefire intact toward Sept 15. Only one tracked wallet is positioned YES on $227K volume—thin smart-money conviction, not a strong signal.

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

July's hold banked the first of three pauses; September and October now decide it. Just one tracked wallet is positioned YES, so the 57% lean rests on $239K volume more than smart-money conviction.

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 90%: US x China tariff agreement by December 31.

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?

Consensus forecasts peg China's 2026 real GDP growth near 4.5%, squarely inside the 4.0-5.0% band and backing the 88% YES odds.

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

GenZ212 protests over health and education spending have battered Akhannouch's coalition ahead of Morocco's 2026 elections. One tracked wallet backs YES amid $167K in volume.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 69%: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31.

Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 68%: Will STRC hit $100 by December 31.

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 76%: Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election.

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?

Markets strongly favor this outcome at 88% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $115K in volume.

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Markets are split on this outcome at 52% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $107K in volume.

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 70%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (70% YES).

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?

Markets strongly favor this outcome at 93% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $92K in volume.

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?

Markets strongly favor this outcome at 89% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $89K in volume.

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?

Markets strongly favor this outcome at 93% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $88K in volume.

Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

Markets are split on this outcome at 55% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $78K in volume.

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

Markets are split on this outcome at 46% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $76K in volume.

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

Markets are split on this outcome at 56% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $73K in volume.

Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Markets are split on this outcome at 46% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $56K in volume.

54%