Radar: AI verdicts on Polymarket markets where smart money is positioned

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Despite regional strikes and protests, Tehran's grip has held with no succession crisis in sight. $25.5M in volume and all 13 tracked wallets sit NO, pricing regime survival as near-certain.

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Regime-stability bets hold firm despite ongoing regional tensions and sanctions pressure, with no succession trigger emerging before year-end. All 4 tracked smart wallets sit on NO across $4.4M in volume.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Tanker rerouting and elevated war-risk insurance keep shipping below pre-crisis levels, dimming a year-end recovery. All 6 tracked smart wallets hold NO positions across $10.4M in volume.

Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Sullivan’s 2026 bid faces headwinds after a primary challenger emerged from the state GOP’s Trump-aligned wing. The sole tracked smart wallet is positioned NO, aligning with the 64% consensus despite $137K in two-sided volume.

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Republicans currently hold the Senate, but recent national polling gives Democrats a modest edge heading into the 2026 midterms.

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

GameStop's meme-driven M&A speculation lacks any confirmed talks with eBay, keeping the market firmly skeptical at $2.9M in volume. All 7 tracked smart wallets sit on NO, signaling no insider expectation of a deal.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

A split Congress — Republicans holding the Senate while Democrats flip the House — trails unified-control scenarios across $2M in volume. All 4 tracked smart wallets sit on YES, against the 64% NO lean.

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026.

US recession by end of 2026?

Resilient labor data and easing inflation keep recession fears muted heading into year-end. All three tracked smart wallets hold NO, backed by $1.7M volume — a firm bet on continued expansion.

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Succession speculation around aging Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei keeps son Mojtaba the clerical frontrunner. All 6 tracked wallets hold YES on $6.4M volume, a firm consensus bet on a managed transition.

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

The president's party historically loses House seats at midterms, keeping GOP retention odds in single digits. All 5 tracked smart wallets sit on NO across $4.3M in volume.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Midterm dynamics weigh against the incumbent party sweeping both chambers, keeping a unified Republican Congress deep out of favor. All 3 tracked smart wallets hold NO, aligned with the 90% lean across $2.7M in volume.

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Netanyahu leads Likud into the 2026 election as one of two frontrunners, yet a crowded field keeps his comeback well below even odds.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 6c. 4 smart wallets tracked.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Stalled negotiations and ongoing front-line fighting keep a near-term deal a long shot. Both smart wallets tracked here hold NO, aligned with the $2.2M in trading volume.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 6c. 4 smart wallets tracked.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 12c. 4 smart wallets tracked.

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

McConnell is finishing his final Senate term and stays active chairing hearings despite recent hospitalization, making an early exit unlikely.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31.

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 34c. 3 smart wallets tracked.

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 57c. 5 smart wallets tracked.

Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 6c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES).

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 10c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 40%: Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026.

Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 38c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 28c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 22c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Iran leadership change by November 30?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 6c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 17c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 20c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 6c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 5c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

The president's party typically loses House seats at midterms, keeping the flip priced near-certain all cycle. Yet all 8 tracked smart-money wallets sit on NO, fading the crowd's consensus.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Fed officials have signaled patience on cuts amid sticky inflation, keeping a hold in October as the base case. Two tracked wallets with a strong historical record are aligned on YES, reinforcing the 70% consensus.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting.

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

Bitcoin would need a deep sell-off to hit $55,000, and traders price that at just 18% by December 31, 2026.

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

US-Cuba tensions keep military escalation in view, yet $5.2M in volume prices a direct strike as unlikely. All 3 tracked smart wallets hold NO, betting action won't materialize by year-end.

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

A Democratic sweep of both chambers sits at a coin-flip as neither party holds a clear midterm edge yet. Six tracked wallets have converged on the YES side across $2.8M in volume.

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

Bitcoin trades well above $50K; a 38%+ drop would need a severe macro shock markets aren't pricing. The one tracked wallet sits NO, matching $3.5M volume that favors no deep dip.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 30c. 3 smart wallets tracked.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 36%: US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026.

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Barcelona's teenage winger is dazzling but the Ballon d'Or has gone to a teenager only once (1958); voters favor Champions League-winning veterans. The lone tracked wallet sits NO, echoing the 85% skew.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 6c. 4 smart wallets tracked.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 14c. 4 smart wallets tracked.

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Maduro stays entrenched despite US sanctions and a disputed 2024 mandate, with military backing making near-term ouster unlikely. All 4 tracked wallets sit YES on $2.8M volume, a firm consensus.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Stalled front lines and no active ceasefire talks keep a near-term deal remote, pinning odds near lows. Yet 2 tracked smart wallets hold YES, a contrarian bet against the $2.7M NO-heavy flow.

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Coalition strain and the ongoing corruption trial keep his grip precarious heading into 2026. Four tracked smart wallets lean YES on $2.3M volume, betting on an early exit.

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Two months from November, the race sits at a dead heat with $1.7M wagered and neither side pulling ahead. All 4 tracked smart-money wallets are positioned NO, leaning against a Republican hold.

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Persistent NATO-Russia border and airspace incidents keep a tail-risk premium priced into 2026. All 3 tracked geopolitics wallets lean YES against the 76% NO crowd on $1.8M volume—a contrarian smart-money tilt.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Tehran has repeatedly refused to surrender its stockpile despite sanctions pressure, keeping this pinned deep in NO. Both tracked smart wallets hold NO, matching the one-sided $2.2M in volume.

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?

With under four months left in 2026, the market prices the required rally to $120K as a long shot. The lone tracked smart wallet sits NO, aligned with the 88% majority and $1.7M in volume.

Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?

OpenSea's long-awaited SEA token launch fuels debate, but a $1B day-one FDV would require aggressive valuation amid a cooling NFT market. The lone tracked wallet sits NO, aligning with $2.1M in bearish flow.

91%

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?

Bitcoin sits below the $110K mark and traders see a year-end climb as unlikely at current momentum. The lone tracked smart wallet is positioned NO, aligning with the 80% bearish lean across $1.6M in volume.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Tehran has repeatedly rejected halting enrichment amid stalled nuclear talks, pinning YES odds in the low teens. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO, aligned with the $1.7M in trading volume.

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Rolling blackouts and record emigration keep collapse talk alive, but the regime retains firm military control. A single tracked wallet sits NO, echoing the $1.7M market's lopsided lean.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Hamas leaders have publicly rejected disarmament as a ceasefire term, anchoring the market's skepticism. A single tracked wallet holds a contrarian YES against the 78% NO crowd — a thin signal on $1.6M volume.

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES).

91%

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?

Gold would need a sharp rally to clear $6,000 by year-end, a move traders view as a long shot on the current trajectory. The lone tracked smart wallet holds NO, echoing the 89% bearish lean.

Sports

Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (28% YES).

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026.

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 42c. 4 smart wallets tracked.

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31.

93%

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Prediction markets put the probability at 82%: Nothing Ever Happens: 2026.

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 48%: Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Zelensky’s public stance remains firm against territorial concessions, reinforced by Western military aid pledges. All tracked smart wallets hold NO, with volume concentrated on the downside, suggesting low odds of a pre-2027 deal.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31.

Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES).

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 17%: Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (17% YES).

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 44%: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting. Currently, markets are divided (44% YES, 56% NO).

Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 28c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

No one announced as next James Bond?

Prediction markets put the probability at 21%: No one announced as next James Bond.

Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES).

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 32%: China x Philippines military clash before 2027.

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES).

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Prediction markets put the probability at 42%: Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide.

Iran full airspace closure by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: Iran full airspace closure by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (28% YES).

Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 16c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027.

US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 34c. 3 smart wallets tracked.

Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 5c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 22c. 3 smart wallets tracked.

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Saudi normalization talks stalled after Riyadh conditioned a deal on Israeli progress toward Palestinian statehood. One smart wallet holds a firm NO position, aligning with the 85% consensus despite $301K in volume.

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 16c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

Iran has not announced any Hormuz toll by December 31, with current odds at 31% YES versus 69% NO, and recent U.S.

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31.

Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).

Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 8c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES).

Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 10c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 6c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 28c. 3 smart wallets tracked.

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

OpenAI’s latest funding round reportedly values it near $1.6T, leaving a steep gap to $2.0T by year-end. Only one smart wallet is active, firmly positioned NO, while $113K in volume shows no bullish accumulation.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 10c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 78c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 8c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 22%: Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027.

Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?

Trump’s inner circle has signaled continuity with Karoline Leavitt, and no credible reports suggest a shakeup. One smart wallet is firmly positioned NO, aligning with the 81% consensus despite $93K in two-sided trading.

Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 5c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 42%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31.

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 5c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Iran coup attempt by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Iran coup attempt by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 26c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 6c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?

Saylor’s public Bitcoin advocacy and SEC scrutiny have not produced any formal charges, keeping odds low. One smart wallet holds a NO position, aligning with the $73K volume trend against a federal case.

Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 11c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 6c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027.

Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 14c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 7c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

93%

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 5c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 16c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 22c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 43c. 3 smart wallets tracked.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Renewed back-channel US-Iran talks have shifted sentiment toward de-escalation. Both tracked smart wallets sit on YES, aligned with $1.3M in volume leaning toward a lifted blockade.

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Eizenkot's National Unity party surge in recent polls has fueled speculation as coalition instability keeps early-election odds elevated. Thin conviction signal — a lone tracked wallet sits NO against heavy $1.7M turnover.

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 70c. 4 smart wallets tracked.

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Anthropic's enterprise API revenue reportedly tripled in Q3, narrowing the gap with OpenAI's valuation trajectory. One high-accuracy wallet holds a YES position, while $972K in volume shows sustained conviction despite thin smart-money participation.

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 66c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 82c. 3 smart wallets tracked.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 62%: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31.

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 72c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 44%: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting.

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 64%: Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026.

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 62c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 78c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 68%: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30. Currently, markets are divided (68% YES, 32% NO).

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 69c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 46c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 81c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 55c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 41c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 78%: Will STRC hit $100 by December 31.

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 90c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 46%: Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election.

50%

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 69%: Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026.

Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on Wednesday that no plans exist for a Putin-Trump meeting in China, despite market odds favoring a 54% chance of one.

Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 71c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?

China’s 2026 growth target range aligns with official policy guidance and recent IMF forecasts, keeping odds stable near 89%. Two tracked smart wallets hold YES consensus, while $222K in volume shows no significant contrary flow.

Trump meets with Putin by December 31?

Kremlin signals and war fatigue narratives have pushed odds up since late October. One tracked wallet, a top-10 geopolitics trader, holds a YES position, aligning with the $116K volume favoring the affirmative.

Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 53%: Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election.

50%

Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 88c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES).

Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

The Academy expanded preferential ballot voting this year, boosting frontrunner momentum after its SAG ensemble win. One smart wallet holds a large YES position, aligning with the 55% consensus despite the $96K volume split.

50%

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 46c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 69c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 77c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 74c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 90c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 78c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 42c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

58%