Radar: AI verdicts on Polymarket markets where smart money is positioned

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Despite regional strikes and protests, Tehran's grip has held with no succession crisis in sight. $25.5M in volume and all 13 tracked wallets sit NO, pricing regime survival as near-certain.

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Regime-stability bets hold firm despite ongoing regional tensions and sanctions pressure, with no succession trigger emerging before year-end. All 4 tracked smart wallets sit on NO across $4.4M in volume.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Midterm dynamics weigh against the incumbent party sweeping both chambers, keeping a unified Republican Congress deep out of favor. All 3 tracked smart wallets hold NO, aligned with the 90% lean across $2.7M in volume.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Tanker rerouting and elevated war-risk insurance keep shipping below pre-crisis levels, dimming a year-end recovery. All 6 tracked smart wallets hold NO positions across $10.4M in volume.

Trump out as President before 2027?

At 6% YES versus 94% NO, markets see almost no chance Trump leaves office before 2027.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Denmark and Greenland have flatly rejected any US purchase despite Trump's repeated push, keeping YES in single digits. All 4 tracked smart wallets sit on NO across $10.6M in volume.

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Succession speculation around aging Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei keeps son Mojtaba the clerical frontrunner. All 6 tracked wallets hold YES on $6.4M volume, a firm consensus bet on a managed transition.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

No official move to lift Iran sanctions has surfaced with the Sept 30 deadline approaching. All 3 tracked geopolitics wallets hold NO, aligning with the $2.5M market's 84% skew.

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

GameStop's meme-driven M&A speculation lacks any confirmed talks with eBay, keeping the market firmly skeptical at $2.9M in volume. All 7 tracked smart wallets sit on NO, signaling no insider expectation of a deal.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

A split Congress — Republicans holding the Senate while Democrats flip the House — trails unified-control scenarios across $2M in volume. All 4 tracked smart wallets sit on YES, against the 64% NO lean.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Mixed inflation and cooling labor data have traders leaning toward a Fed hold, keeping NO 16 points ahead. Both tracked smart wallets sit on NO, backed by $17.4M in volume.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

The president's party typically loses House seats at midterms, keeping the flip priced near-certain all cycle. Yet all 8 tracked smart-money wallets sit on NO, fading the crowd's consensus.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Ukraine's wartime martial law suspends elections, leaving no constitutional path to a leadership change before year-end. All 4 tracked wallets hold NO across $3.1M in volume.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Stalled negotiations and ongoing front-line fighting keep a near-term deal a long shot. Both smart wallets tracked here hold NO, aligned with the $2.2M in trading volume.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 6c. 5 smart wallets tracked.

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Barcelona's teenage winger is dazzling but the Ballon d'Or has gone to a teenager only once (1958); voters favor Champions League-winning veterans. The lone tracked wallet sits NO, echoing the 85% skew.

US recession by end of 2026?

Resilient labor data and easing inflation keep recession fears muted heading into year-end. All three tracked smart wallets hold NO, backed by $1.7M volume — a firm bet on continued expansion.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

No direct Moscow-Kyiv talks are scheduled and front lines remain frozen, leaving little runway to sign a deal before Oct 31. Both tracked wallets hold NO, backed by $1M in one-sided volume.

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

McConnell is finishing his final Senate term and stays active chairing hearings despite recent hospitalization, making an early exit unlikely.

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Senkaku patrol tensions keep tail risk priced in, but a direct clash stays a low-base-rate event on this sub-two-year horizon. All 3 tracked geopolitics wallets hold NO across $1.3M in volume.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Kremlin statements and battlefield stalemate have kept a ceasefire out of reach, with no formal negotiation framework emerging. Two smart wallets, both with strong geopolitical track records, hold NO positions, aligning with the 84% consensus.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?

Iranian naval exercises near the Strait of Hormuz and stalled IAEA talks have kept odds low. One smart wallet holds a NO position, aligning with $509K in volume favoring the status quo.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Ongoing battlefield stalemate and no formal negotiation framework have kept odds low despite sporadic diplomatic signals. One smart wallet holds a firm NO position, aligning with the 94% consensus and $443K in volume.

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

OpenAI’s board remains divided, with Altman targeting late 2026 but Friar blocking on readiness, so an IPO before 2027 is unlikely at 8% odds.

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?

OpenAI’s hardware push remains speculative, with no credible leaks or supply-chain signals since the 2025 device pivot. One smart wallet holds a firm NO stance, and the $76K volume shows no late bullish accumulation.

Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 11c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 14c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

The Fed weighs cooling inflation against labor-market softness heading into its September meeting, tilting odds toward holding rates steady. All 10 tracked smart wallets are positioned YES, backed by $21.2M in volume.

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

With no credible succession trigger or health crisis materializing, the Kremlin's leadership remains firmly entrenched heading into year-end. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO across $19.9M in volume.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

House passage in July 2025 stalled in the Senate with no floor vote scheduled, leaving 2026 enactment doubtful. Three tracked smart-money wallets took contrarian YES against the 82% NO crowd.

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

United Russia's grip on ballot access and state media keeps it the structural favorite despite low approval. Both tracked smart wallets sit YES, aligned with the $9.1M in volume.

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

Bitcoin would need a steep crash to hit $45,000, and markets put just a 6% chance on that dip by year-end.

Crypto

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

Bitcoin would need a deep sell-off to hit $55,000, and traders price that at just 18% by December 31, 2026.

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

US-Cuba tensions keep military escalation in view, yet $5.2M in volume prices a direct strike as unlikely. All 3 tracked smart wallets hold NO, betting action won't materialize by year-end.

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

The president's party historically loses House seats at midterms, keeping GOP retention odds in single digits. All 5 tracked smart wallets sit on NO across $4.3M in volume.

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Netanyahu leads Likud into the 2026 election as one of two frontrunners, yet a crowded field keeps his comeback well below even odds.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

California's prior wealth-tax bills stalled in the legislature, and tax-hike ballot measures rarely clear a majority. All three tracked smart-money wallets hold NO across $3.7M in volume.

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

Bitcoin trades well above $50K; a 38%+ drop would need a severe macro shock markets aren't pricing. The one tracked wallet sits NO, matching $3.5M volume that favors no deep dip.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Absent any troop mobilization or formal military authorization, the market stays anchored to the status quo. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO, aligned with $3.3M in volume backing the low-conflict case.

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

A Democratic sweep of both chambers sits at a coin-flip as neither party holds a clear midterm edge yet. Six tracked wallets have converged on the YES side across $2.8M in volume.

50%

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Stalled front lines and no active ceasefire talks keep a near-term deal remote, pinning odds near lows. Yet 2 tracked smart wallets hold YES, a contrarian bet against the $2.7M NO-heavy flow.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Stalled enrichment talks and no signed framework keep a year-end deal out of reach. All three tracked geopolitics wallets hold NO, matching the $2.4M market's heavy skew against a breakthrough.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 13c. 3 smart wallets tracked.

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Republicans currently hold the Senate, but recent national polling gives Democrats a modest edge heading into the 2026 midterms.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Tehran has repeatedly refused to surrender its stockpile despite sanctions pressure, keeping this pinned deep in NO. Both tracked smart wallets hold NO, matching the one-sided $2.2M in volume.

Crypto

Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?

OpenSea's long-awaited SEA token launch fuels debate, but a $1B day-one FDV would require aggressive valuation amid a cooling NFT market. The lone tracked wallet sits NO, aligning with $2.1M in bearish flow.

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

Bitcoin peaked near $126,272 in October 2025, so a plunge to $40,000 would need a ~68% crash — unlikely by year-end.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

A holding truce with no fresh escalation reported in late September keeps disruption risk low. Both tracked smart wallets are positioned YES, backed by nearly $1M in volume.

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Persistent NATO-Russia border and airspace incidents keep a tail-risk premium priced into 2026. All 3 tracked geopolitics wallets lean YES against the 76% NO crowd on $1.8M volume—a contrarian smart-money tilt.

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?

With under four months left in 2026, the market prices the required rally to $120K as a long shot. The lone tracked smart wallet sits NO, aligned with the 88% majority and $1.7M in volume.

Crypto

Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Puffpaw's vape-to-earn token debuts on Berachain, but clearing a $100M FDV on day one is a steep bar that traders put at just 26%.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Tehran has repeatedly rejected halting enrichment amid stalled nuclear talks, pinning YES odds in the low teens. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO, aligned with the $1.7M in trading volume.

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Rolling blackouts and record emigration keep collapse talk alive, but the regime retains firm military control. A single tracked wallet sits NO, echoing the $1.7M market's lopsided lean.

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?

Bitcoin sits below the $110K mark and traders see a year-end climb as unlikely at current momentum. The lone tracked smart wallet is positioned NO, aligning with the 80% bearish lean across $1.6M in volume.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Hamas leaders have publicly rejected disarmament as a ceasefire term, anchoring the market's skepticism. A single tracked wallet holds a contrarian YES against the 78% NO crowd — a thin signal on $1.6M volume.

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

LA Councilmember Raman sits below even odds against a crowded field on $1.5M volume. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold YES, betting against the 65% NO majority.

Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?

With limited runway left in 2026 and price well below target, the market discounts a $130K print heavily. The one tracked smart wallet holds NO, echoed by $1.3M in bearish-leaning volume.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 6c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 36%: US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026.

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?

Gold would need a sharp rally to clear $6,000 by year-end, a move traders view as a long shot on the current trajectory. The lone tracked smart wallet holds NO, echoing the 89% bearish lean.

Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 40%: Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Prediction markets put the probability at 82%: Nothing Ever Happens: 2026.

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

Pardon speculation faded after the DOJ reaffirmed her sentence and no clemency chatter emerged from Mar-a-Lago. The lone smart wallet holds NO, aligning with the 94% consensus and $748K in volume.

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Zelensky’s public stance remains firm against territorial concessions, reinforced by Western military aid pledges. All tracked smart wallets hold NO, with volume concentrated on the downside, suggesting low odds of a pre-2027 deal.

Iran full airspace closure by September 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Iran full airspace closure by September 30.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31.

Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES).

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Iran-Israel tensions and repeated tanker seizures have kept transit insurance rates elevated through September. One tracked wallet holds a firm NO position, aligning with the 92% market consensus despite $380K in total volume.

Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?

Other market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 5c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

95%

Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?

STRC buybacks reduced Bitcoin per diluted share, and with only 34% odds, a $100 price by September 30 remains unlikely given halted BTC purchases.

Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?

OpenSea’s token launch faces skepticism as NFT trading volumes remain near multi-year lows. The sole smart wallet on the card holds a NO position, aligning with the 92% consensus despite $541K in traded volume.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES).

Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ethereum faces stiff resistance near $4,100, with ETF outflows and rising bond yields dampening momentum. All 1 smart wallet holds NO, and $459K in volume shows no accumulation pattern ahead of the 2026 deadline.

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 32%: China x Philippines military clash before 2027.

Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES).

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 17%: Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (17% YES).

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Prediction markets put the probability at 42%: Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide.

Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

No one announced as next James Bond?

Prediction markets put the probability at 21%: No one announced as next James Bond.

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Prediction markets put the probability at 58%: Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep).

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Saudi normalization talks stalled after Riyadh conditioned a deal on Israeli progress toward Palestinian statehood. One smart wallet holds a firm NO position, aligning with the 85% consensus despite $301K in volume.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting.

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES).

Iran full airspace closure by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: Iran full airspace closure by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (28% YES).

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027.

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 7%: Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026.

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 6c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 42%: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets are divided (42% YES, 58% NO).

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Cooling inflation and softer labor data have boosted odds of a full pause streak. One smart wallet, consensus YES, holds the largest position, while volume skews slightly toward NO.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Fed officials have signaled patience on cuts amid sticky inflation, keeping a hold in October as the base case. Two tracked wallets with a strong historical record are aligned on YES, reinforcing the 70% consensus.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES).

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 8c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31.

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

Iran has not announced any Hormuz toll by December 31, with current odds at 31% YES versus 69% NO, and recent U.S.

H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026.

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

Paramount’s board has shown no formal interest, and regulatory scrutiny over media consolidation remains a major hurdle. The sole smart wallet is firmly positioned NO, while $152K in volume shows no meaningful YES accumulation.

Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?

Ripple Labs has not filed for an IPO, and its SEC lawsuit history plus ongoing regulatory uncertainty make a pre-2027 listing unlikely at current 6% odds.

JD Vance out as VP by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: JD Vance out as VP by December 31.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Sullivan’s 2026 bid faces headwinds after a primary challenger emerged from the state GOP’s Trump-aligned wing. The sole tracked smart wallet is positioned NO, aligning with the 64% consensus despite $137K in two-sided volume.

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 46%: Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election.

Russia coup attempt in 2026?

Kremlin security service purges and the Wagner Group's formal dissolution have reduced visible coup vectors. The sole tracked wallet holds a NO position, aligning with the 94% consensus despite $129K in volume.

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

OpenAI’s latest funding round reportedly values it near $1.6T, leaving a steep gap to $2.0T by year-end. Only one smart wallet is active, firmly positioned NO, while $113K in volume shows no bullish accumulation.

Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?

Trump’s inner circle has signaled continuity with Karoline Leavitt, and no credible reports suggest a shakeup. One smart wallet is firmly positioned NO, aligning with the 81% consensus despite $93K in two-sided trading.

Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 57%: Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026. Currently, markets are divided (57% YES, 43% NO).

95%

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 42%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31.

Iran coup attempt by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Iran coup attempt by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 6c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026.

Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?

Saylor’s public Bitcoin advocacy and SEC scrutiny have not produced any formal charges, keeping odds low. One smart wallet holds a NO position, aligning with the $73K volume trend against a federal case.

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027.

Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES).

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?

Google search trends show no major Avengers: Doomsday trailer or release event driving sustained queries this year. One tracked wallet holds a NO position, aligning with the 91% consensus despite $54K in trading volume.

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 12c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Lula's re-election bid stays a near coin-flip against a fragmented right-wing field. All 3 tracked smart wallets and $9.6M in volume lean the edge toward YES.

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Contested field keeps the race near a coin-flip, with $9.6M in volume reflecting heavy uncertainty over the right's 2026 standard-bearer. Both tracked smart-money wallets lean YES, against the market's NO tilt.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Sticky inflation and recent hawkish Fed commentary keep a 2026 hike in play. All five tracked smart wallets are positioned YES, with $8.5M in volume backing that conviction.

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Sticky inflation has kept the Fed on hold at every 2026 meeting, with officials signaling no urgency to cut. Both tracked wallets back YES, aligned with $7.9M in volume.

Sports

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Strong season-long form has kept Antonelli near the front of title contention, with $4.1M in volume signaling durable conviction. The single tracked smart wallet sits YES, aligning with the market's bullish lean.

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Maduro stays entrenched despite US sanctions and a disputed 2024 mandate, with military backing making near-term ouster unlikely. All 4 tracked wallets sit YES on $2.8M volume, a firm consensus.

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Coalition strain and the ongoing corruption trial keep his grip precarious heading into 2026. Four tracked smart wallets lean YES on $2.3M volume, betting on an early exit.

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Eizenkot's National Unity party surge in recent polls has fueled speculation as coalition instability keeps early-election odds elevated. Thin conviction signal — a lone tracked wallet sits NO against heavy $1.7M turnover.

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Two months from November, the race sits at a dead heat with $1.7M wagered and neither side pulling ahead. All 4 tracked smart-money wallets are positioned NO, leaning against a Republican hold.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Renewed back-channel US-Iran talks have shifted sentiment toward de-escalation. Both tracked smart wallets sit on YES, aligned with $1.3M in volume leaning toward a lifted blockade.

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Sticky inflation and hawkish Fed commentary keep a September hike on the table despite market doubts. Six tracked smart wallets hold YES, betting against the crowd's 58% no-hike lean.

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Anthropic's enterprise API revenue reportedly tripled in Q3, narrowing the gap with OpenAI's valuation trajectory. One high-accuracy wallet holds a YES position, while $972K in volume shows sustained conviction despite thin smart-money participation.

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 88%: Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (88% YES).

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Bolsonaro’s political ban and legal challenges have solidified his position as the leading opposition figure against Lula. One smart wallet holds a YES consensus, and $524K in volume reflects strong conviction in his second-place finish.

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 56%: Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting. Currently, markets are divided (56% YES, 44% NO).

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 90c. 3 smart wallets tracked.

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 94%: Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026.

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 90%: Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (90% YES).

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

OpenAI’s $40B SoftBank-led round and rapid commercialization keep IPO pressure low, while regulatory scrutiny delays any filing. One tracked wallet holds a YES position, aligning with the 92% consensus despite thin smart-money participation.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 72%: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (72% YES).

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 90c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 62%: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31.

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Prediction markets put the probability at 40%: Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep). Currently, markets are divided (40% YES, 60% NO).

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Prediction markets put the probability at 56%: Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct). Currently, markets are divided (56% YES, 44% NO).

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 56%: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027. Currently, markets are divided (56% YES, 44% NO).

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

Trade volume surged past $242K after Beijing signaled flexibility on agricultural purchases ahead of the APEC summit. The sole smart wallet tracking this market holds a YES position, aligning with the 89% consensus.

Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 78%: Will STRC hit $100 by December 31.

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?

China’s 2026 growth target range aligns with official policy guidance and recent IMF forecasts, keeping odds stable near 89%. Two tracked smart wallets hold YES consensus, while $222K in volume shows no significant contrary flow.

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 85c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

Royal decree on August 22 reshuffled key ministries, signaling erosion of Akhannouch's parliamentary base. One smart wallet with a YES consensus has driven $168K in volume, aligning with the 91% market tilt.

Trump meets with Putin by December 31?

Kremlin signals and war fatigue narratives have pushed odds up since late October. One tracked wallet, a top-10 geopolitics trader, holds a YES position, aligning with the $116K volume favoring the affirmative.

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

OpenAI's recent $40B funding round at a $300B valuation makes a 3.3x jump to $1T by year-end a steep ask. The sole tracked smart wallet is positioned NO, suggesting skepticism despite the 83% market price.

Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

The Academy expanded preferential ballot voting this year, boosting frontrunner momentum after its SAG ensemble win. One smart wallet holds a large YES position, aligning with the 55% consensus despite the $96K volume split.

50%

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 69%: Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026.

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 89%: Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (89% YES).

Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 82%: Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election. Currently, markets see this as likely (82% YES).

Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 53%: Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election.

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 62%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31. Currently, markets are divided (62% YES, 38% NO).