Market Radar: What Prediction Markets Think Will Happen

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Markets price invasion at 18%, with strike threats oscillating against diplomacy and Hormuz disruption tagged into 2027 — base case stays NO.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

US-Iran framework talks advanced this week per Pakistan-brokered reports, pushing YES to 66% as a May 31 deal looks plausible but unsigned.

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Thunder hold 64% implied probability with media consensus naming them clear NBA title favorites ahead of Spurs, Knicks, and Cavs.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES).

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

NO at 93% reflects the structural calculus: Beijing wants Taiwan's chip fabs intact, not rubble, and a 2026 invasion destroys the prize.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

UAE's ADNOC says full Hormuz flows won't return until first half of 2027, validating the 81% NO consensus that May normalization is implausible.

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES).

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES).

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Xi remains firmly in power, with no succession signals and active diplomacy with Trump.

Trump out as President before 2027?

Markets price exit at just 10% — Trump remains firmly entrenched, already eyeing 2028 GOP targets and floating a third term.

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Markets price 70% NO despite NSC convening May 19 on Iran options; closure requires deliberate escalation, not just heightened tension.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES).

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Sanctions tightening and tanker pile-ups at Kharg signal pressure, not seizure; 94% NO reflects zero military path to dislodging Iran by June 30.

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?

WTI sits near $107 with Brent already above $110, so a $4 push in days remaining is plausible but markets still price 87% NO.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Tehran's regime has weathered recent protests and sanctions without visible succession signals as Khamenei holds power. Six smart wallets sit NO at 68%, with $2.5M volume reflecting structural skepticism on a short timeline.

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Stalled IAEA inspections and unresolved enrichment red lines have kept negotiations from advancing past technical-level talks. 7 smart wallets pricing NO at $2.4M volume mirror the diplomatic gridlock — no breakthrough catalyst in sight.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Zelenskyy is pursuing EU accession and consolidating wartime authority, with no election plausible under martial law.

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Reza Pahlavi remains in exile with no credible re-entry pathway; the 88% NO reflects regime control over borders despite Iran war disruption.

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Machado's exile-return push and opposition momentum make a Maduro-to-Rodríguez handover unlikely by year-end, validating the 80% NO.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Counterproposal fell short of US demands and strikes continue, making a clean enrichment halt by June 30 a tall order.

US recession by end of 2026?

Dimon's warnings on debt refinancing and real estate stress are real, but markets price 76% NO — labor and consumer spending haven't cracked yet.

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Markets price 92% NO as failed Ahmadinejad regime-change plot leaves Tehran intact while Trump-Iran talks signal de-escalation, not collapse.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Markets price an 82% chance Democrats flip at least one chamber, with internal GOP friction over the $1B White House security ask reinforcing the bearish tilt.

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Coup plot collapsed after the wounded ex-president withdrew, per US officials cited by NYT, leaving the 7% YES priced for residual unrest, not regime change.

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Markets lean NO at 58%, but a 42% YES tail reflects active conflict spillover risk that keeps closure plausible through June.

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Nomura's no-cut forecast aligns with bond traders pricing in zero 2026 easing, and the market echoes it at 92% NO.

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

eBay flatly rejected GameStop's acquisition offer, and traders price just 14% odds of a deal closing despite the public attention.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 24%: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (24% YES).

Epstein client list released by June 30?

Sarah Kellen's House Oversight testimony adds pressure, but DOJ release timelines rarely move on witness depositions alone.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES).

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES).

Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 8c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 34%: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026. Currently, markets are divided (34% YES, 66% NO).

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Despite renewed envoy pressure and diplomatic push, formal acquisition by 2026 year-end remains extremely unlikely given Denmark and Greenland's firm rejection.

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Spurs took Game 1 against OKC behind Wembanyama, but the Thunder remain title favorites and 85% NO reflects the steep series math ahead.

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

France sits as +500 co-favorite with Spain at DraftKings, yet the 18% market price reflects a 48-team field where even elites historically convert under 20%.

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Spain sits at +500 co-favorites with France at DraftKings, yet markets price them at just 17% — bookmaker enthusiasm outruns implied probability here.

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Portugal's golden generation still leans on 40-year-old Ronaldo, and the 9% odds reflect a squad that's never reached a World Cup final.

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Brazil sits at just 9% to lift the 2026 trophy, and even Orenburg forward Alexandre Jesus publicly doubts his country's chances under Ancelotti.

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Germany enters as a contender with Musiala leading Nagelsmann's squad, but a 48-team field and 5% odds reflect long historical drought since 2014.

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

England's 11% reflects strong squad depth but historic underperformance at major tournaments — markets price them as dark horses, not favorites.

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Knicks face a steep climb at 19% — they're in the Eastern Conference Finals but still need to outlast Cleveland and a tougher West.

Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Prediction markets put the probability at 19%: Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (19% YES).

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Sánchez Palomino trails establishment candidates in pre-election polling with the April 2026 vote approaching. All 4 tracked wallets sit NO on $12.8M volume, reflecting low conviction in a Peru Libre comeback.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

No structural path: 93% NO reflects clerical-military control, with Pahlavi exiled and lacking domestic organization to seize power within 2026.

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro in the first major head-to-head poll, and a fresh banker scandal compounds the drag; 26% YES looks generous.

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Santos remains a fringe candidate with limited national polling traction, while frontrunners dominate the 2026 race narrative. The single smart wallet tracked sits firmly NO, aligned with $5.7M in volume tilted 87% against.

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES).

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Trump's Saturday announcement of a near-final Iran peace deal with Hormuz reopening makes YES the dominant scenario by May 31.

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Starmer survives the June 30 cutoff barring a snap leadership challenge, with markets pricing a 72% NO.

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Putin is pursuing a victorious war conclusion and broader European security deal this year, signaling entrenchment rather than imminent exit at 12% YES.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 88%: US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Saylor's "never sell" doctrine remains intact through Q1 2026, with MicroStrategy continuing to accumulate BTC rather than divest holdings. Three smart wallets positioned NO, aligning with the firm's public hold-forever treasury strategy.

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Machado already won the 2025 prize, and Trump's name isn't surfacing in current peace-laureate coverage.

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Becerra leads at 52% on Polymarket while Steyer sits at 26%, suggesting his $192M self-funding hasn't overcome the frontrunner's institutional edge.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Heavy billionaire money is mobilizing against the measure, with Brin alone spending $57M to defeat it.

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Satoshi's 1.1M BTC has sat untouched since 2010, and 92% NO odds reflect that institutional flows don't change dormant-wallet behavior.

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Republicans face a steep uphill battle to retain their narrow House majority, with markets pricing only a 20% chance of GOP control after 2026.

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

Bitcoin sits well above $45K with macro fear elevated but not extreme, and a 55% drawdown by year-end remains a tail scenario rather than a base case.

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Trump publicly demands Iran surrender its near-weapons-grade uranium, signaling zero tolerance for enrichment before May 31.

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

United Russia controls state media, election machinery, and has won every Duma vote since 2003, making 56% YES look underpriced versus structural reality.

Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Vegas sits at 33% implied probability with the Conference Final underway, leaving them as live underdogs against a 67% field consensus.

Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ancelotti has officially named Neymar to Brazil's 2026 World Cup squad, aligning with the 86% YES market consensus.

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 68%: Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026. Currently, markets are divided (68% YES, 32% NO).

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Supreme Leader insists enriched uranium stays in Iran while Tehran floats a 14-point counter-proposal, making surrender by June 30 highly unlikely.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 24%: Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (24% YES).

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Talks have stalled with no formal framework announced and a 3-week deadline tightening the window for ratification. Five tracked wallets are positioned NO against the 68% YES consensus, signaling skepticism on timeline feasibility.

Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?

OpenSea's last private valuation hit $13B in 2022 but has since cratered amid NFT collapse, making a $1B day-one FDV plausible yet far from certain.

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 11%: US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (11% YES).

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Saylor's never-sell doctrine holds, but 80% YES suggests traders expect at least minor treasury rebalancing or tax-loss harvesting before year-end.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Republicans defending 22 of 35 Senate seats while needing only +5 House net for Democratic control makes the split outcome a long-tail scenario.

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Economics

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Markets price 40% odds of a 2026 hike despite Warsh and Trump pushing for cuts, as accelerating post-Iran inflation forces traders to hedge.

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Nomura now forecasts zero Fed cuts in 2026 as inflation reaccelerates, and traders agree—84% NO odds price in a hold-the-line year.

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Pratt's outsider campaign gains traction with Trump's backing, but a 22% market price still leaves Bass and the Democratic machine heavily favored.

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 38%: Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Carolina enters the conference finals as the favorite at 30%, but four teams remain and the market still implies a 70% chance someone else lifts the Cup.

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Troop drawdowns are structured and gradual per NATO chief Rutte, signaling realignment rather than exit, which keeps NO firmly anchored at 93%.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Iran is hardening its stance and rejecting US enrichment demands, with Khamenei refusing the core ask just 10 days from deadline.

Science

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 30%: Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (30% YES).

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

NO at 91% is correct: even a "fine-tuned" framework is weeks from signatures, and a permanent deal by May 31 leaves zero room for ratification.

Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES).

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 24%: Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (24% YES).

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 20%: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June.

New pandemic in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: New pandemic in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES).

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 19%: Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (19% YES).

Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch.

Ethereum flipped in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 40%: Ethereum flipped in 2026. Currently, markets are divided (40% YES, 60% NO).

Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Epstein suicide note released by May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Epstein suicide note released by May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Prediction markets put the probability at 11%: Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (11% YES).

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

Iran has kept airspace open through escalating regional strikes, with 64% NO reflecting that closure remains a last-resort signal Tehran rarely pulls.

Kash Patel out by June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 22%: Kash Patel out by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (22% YES).

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Markets are split on this outcome at 57% YES. 2 tracked wallets with $336K in volume.

Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

SBF released from custody in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: SBF released from custody in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES).

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES).

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).

Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 7%: Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (7% YES).

Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

Prediction markets put the probability at 11%: Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (11% YES).

Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026.

Economics

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES).

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 20%: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (20% YES).

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 22%: NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (22% YES).

Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 7%: Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (7% YES).

Science

Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?

Prediction markets put the probability at 38%: Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website. Currently, markets are divided (38% YES, 62% NO).

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 36%: Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31. Currently, markets are divided (36% YES, 64% NO).

Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Geopolitics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 36c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Ebola case in the US by June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Ebola case in the US by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES).

James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES).

Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES).

Major CEX insolvent in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Major CEX insolvent in 2026.

Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

Prediction markets put the probability at 34%: Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote.

Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 13%: Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (13% YES).

Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 34%: Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30. Currently, markets are divided (34% YES, 66% NO).

Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES).

Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 7%: Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (7% YES).

Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES).

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 13%: Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (13% YES).

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

PSG enter the final as 57% favorites, but Dembélé's leg injury just before kickoff sharply narrows their edge.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Prediction markets put the probability at 32%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June. Currently, markets are divided (32% YES, 68% NO).

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Fujimori enters the June 7 runoff with a commanding 76% market price after first-round confirmation, though her three prior presidential losses warrant caution.

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Lula leads recent polls after the Bolsonaro-banker scandal, but markets price him at 46%, reflecting incumbent fatigue and a tight runoff scenario.

Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?

Take-Two just reaffirmed GTA VI for November 19, 2026, while Bitcoin would need to roughly 10x in ~18 months to hit $1M.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democrats hold an 80% edge as midterm history favors the out-party, though internal messaging fractures could narrow the gap before November.

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Labour's polling collapse and internal party rebellion over welfare cuts have pushed ouster odds sharply higher through Q2 2026. Lone smart wallet positioned NO bucks consensus, betting Starmer survives despite leadership chatter.

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Markets are split on this outcome at 54% YES. 3 smart wallets positioned NO — watch for convergence.

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Oh, the conservative People Power Party incumbent, trails Democratic challengers in recent Seoul polls as the June 3 race tightens. Two smart wallets hold YES despite the 36% market price, betting on incumbent advantage.

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Markets price 46% YES for Democrats sweeping both chambers, reflecting tight Senate math even with a favorable House map.

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Maduro's 67% YES reflects entrenched military and Cuban-backed control, while Machado's exile-return push lacks a credible removal mechanism before December.

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?

Thunder enter the West Finals as title favorites, with market pricing matching their dominance throughout the 2026 playoff run.

Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Puffpaw's vape-to-earn hardware launch faces a coin-flip market at 49% YES, with crypto sentiment splitting on novelty hardware FDVs.

50%

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Framework talks in Geneva closed May 21 with both sides confirming a 60-day technical track on enrichment caps. Four tracked wallets opened YES at 0.68-0.74 average, with $1.4M volume skewed 3:1 toward upside.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Trump says Iran deal is "largely negotiated" and Reuters reports a comprehensive accord is near, fueling the 81% YES surge.

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

De la Espriella leads at 56% as Colombia's right-wing populist surge consolidates around his anti-establishment platform ahead of May 2026.

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 88%: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30. Currently, markets see this as likely (88% YES).

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democrats need a net gain of four seats while defending tougher 2026 maps, and markets price that uphill climb at 48% YES versus 52% NO.

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Seoul mayoral betting leans toward incumbent-aligned Chong Won-oh at 66%, but a third of capital still hedges against a late challenger surge.

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

Markets price a 40% chance BTC revisits $50K — meaningful tail risk despite bullish $200K narratives dominating recent crypto headlines.

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Netanyahu's coalition holds despite war fatigue and corruption trial pressure, but 44% YES reflects real removal risk before December 2026.

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Prediction markets put the probability at 52%: Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections. Currently, markets are divided (52% YES, 48% NO).

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Trump's Saturday announcement of a largely-reached Iran peace deal with the strait reopening makes a lift announcement by June 30 highly likely.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 73%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (73% YES).

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Markets are split on this outcome at 50% YES. 2 tracked wallets with $974K in volume.

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Prediction markets put the probability at 67%: Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan.

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 61%: Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026. Currently, markets are divided (61% YES, 39% NO).

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Markets are split on this outcome at 41% YES. 4 smart wallets positioned YES — watch for convergence.

Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Prediction markets put the probability at 72%: Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open. Currently, markets see this as likely (72% YES).

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Prediction markets put the probability at 73%: Nothing Ever Happens: 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (73% YES).

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 68%: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31. Currently, markets are divided (68% YES, 32% NO).

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

Markets are split on this outcome at 43% YES. 2 tracked wallets with $339K in volume.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Markets strongly favor this outcome at 88% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $297K in volume.

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

Markets strongly favor this outcome at 88% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $263K in volume.

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference?

Markets are split on this outcome at 55% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $198K in volume.

Kash Patel out by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 62%: Kash Patel out by December 31. Currently, markets are divided (62% YES, 38% NO).

Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?

Markets strongly favor this outcome at 82% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $179K in volume.

Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?

Markets strongly favor this outcome at 81% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $143K in volume.

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Markets are split on this outcome at 55% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $126K in volume.

Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Markets strongly favor this outcome at 88% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $120K in volume.

ECB rate hike in 2026?

Markets strongly favor this outcome at 92% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $116K in volume.

Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Markets are split on this outcome at 56% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $87K in volume.

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?

YES holds the edge at 88% as the U.S.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Reuters reports US-Iran deal is "largely negotiated," yet a permanent peace pact by June 30 remains a tall order given verification hurdles.

56%