Market Radar: What Prediction Markets Think Will Happen

Live probabilities for major world events — elections, wars, crypto, economics. Powered by real-time data from Polymarket and Kalshi.

PRO subscribers also get: smart money positioning, AI verdicts, entry targets

4 active markets
Politics

Trump wins 2028 Republican Primary

Markets repriced after March 22 court ruling cleared Trump’s legal path. 5 of 12 wallets are politics top-5 specialists who called 9 of last 10 primaries correctly.

NO
62%
YES
38%
Economics

Fed holds rates through Q3 2026

Cross-platform gap widening as Kalshi traders overweight recent CPI data. Polymarket institutional flow suggests steady rates — gap historically closes in 9.8 days.

NO
59%
YES
41%
Geopolitics

Ukraine ceasefire before July 2026

Smart money positioning against ceasefire deadline despite diplomatic signals. Three top-10 geopolitics wallets entered NO positions within 48 hours of each other.

YES
88%
NO
12%
Crypto

Bitcoin above $150K by Dec 2026

Moderate edge with weak convergence. Only 2 of 5 frameworks agree — macro models bearish while on-chain metrics suggest accumulation phase.

NO
67%
YES
33%
HOW IT WORKS three layers of intelligence
01
Prediction markets set the odds
Thousands of traders bet real money on future events. When 10,000 people bet on whether Ukraine will reach a ceasefire by July 2026, the resulting price reflects the crowd’s best estimate: an 88% probability.
50+ active markets · 2 platforms · updated every 10 min
02
Smart money reveals the edge
We track the 50 most profitable wallets on Polymarket — traders with 84–96% historical accuracy. When these wallets take large positions, it often signals information the broader market hasn’t priced in yet.
50 top wallets · 87% signal accuracy · on-chain verified
03
Free probabilities, PRO analysis
Free users see live probabilities and market context for every event. PRO subscribers get smart money positioning, AI-generated verdicts, entry targets, and alerts when top wallets make moves.
Free: probabilities + context · PRO: $29/mo · cancel anytime

Recently Resolved signal track record

13/15 correct (87%) See full track record ›
Fed Rate Decision Dec 2025 38¢ → 69¢ +81% WON
Ukraine Ceasefire Q1 2026 76¢ → 94¢ +24% WON
Trump VP Pick 42¢ → 31¢ -26% LOST