AI verdicts on Polymarket markets where smart money is positioned

OddsShift gives an AI verdict — BUY YES, BUY NO or HOLD — on every Polymarket market where one of 166 tracked smart-money wallets holds a position: 164 Radar markets today. Every BUY is frozen before resolution and graded after, $1,000 per call, misses listed.

START HERE: THE RADAR → graded track record

Today 164 Polymarket markets carry a live AI verdict, built from the positions of 166 tracked wallets (5 tier-1, 16 tier-2, tiered daily by their record on resolved markets), 3 math models and up to 5 AI models. Record so far: 251 of 354 graded BUY verdicts hit the outcome (71%, April – October 2026), ROI +0.4% at $1,000 per call held to resolution; 196 HOLD verdicts not counted. Beyond the Radar, 751 tracked markets carry a live price, volume and a news brief, and 1,368 resolved markets sit in the archive. Free: price, volume and news brief on every tracked market, plus the full graded record. PRO ($29/mo): every verdict with its entry, target and fair value, the wallet positions behind it, and an alert within a minute of a tracked wallet's trade. Last updated: October 12, 2026

164

Radar markets with a live AI verdict

166

tracked wallets · 5 tier-1 / 16 tier-2

71%

251 of 354 graded BUY verdicts hit the outcome

THREE PRODUCTS one main, two separate

Radar — the main product

Every Polymarket market where a tracked smart-money wallet holds a position gets an AI verdict — BUY YES, BUY NO or HOLD. The verdict is the wallets' side weighed by 3 math models and up to 5 AI models; PRO sees the entry price, the target and the fair value behind it. Every BUY is frozen before resolution and graded after, $1,000 per call, misses listed.

164 Radar markets · 128 open BUY verdicts · 251 of 354 graded hit

Copy Trading

The 166 tracked Polymarket wallets behind the Radar, ranked by their measured record on resolved markets (5 tier-1, 16 tier-2), each with its own page. Follow one and get an alert within a minute of its trade (PRO). We never execute trades.

X-Tweet Market

Tweet-count forecasts, graded per persona. A separate product from the Radar, with its own markets.

HOW A VERDICT IS BUILT wallets in, one verdict out

Tracked wallets take a position

A market enters the Radar when at least one of 166 tracked smart-money wallets holds YES or NO in it, read from on-chain balances on Polygon. The wallets are tiered daily by their record on resolved markets. Their side is an input to the verdict, never the call itself.

166 wallets · 5 tier-1 · 16 tier-2 · on-chain balances

3 math models + up to 5 AI models estimate fair value

Three math models and up to five AI models each estimate what the contract is worth and compare it with the market price. Only the models that responded that night count; the page shows which ones did.

3 math models · up to 5 AI models · fair value vs market price

One verdict: BUY YES, BUY NO or HOLD

When the wallets' side and the model fair value point the same way against the market price, the market gets BUY YES or BUY NO with an entry price and a target. When they do not, it gets HOLD — no entry.

BUY YES · BUY NO · HOLD = no entry

Frozen before resolution, graded after

Every BUY verdict is frozen at publication and scored once the market resolves: hit or miss, $1,000 per call held to resolution, misses listed, HOLD not counted. The record lives on /accuracy, scoreboards by month on /reports.

251 of 354 hit · ROI +0.4% · April – October 2026

TRACK RECORD 251 of 354 BUY verdicts hit the outcome · April – October 2026

AI verdicts · accuracy

71%

251 of 354 BUY verdicts frozen before the close · 196 HOLD not counted

ROI, $1,000 per call

+0.4%

held to resolution · +$1,380 total on 354 calls

Open BUY verdicts

128

on live markets — they enter the record as they resolve

354 BUY verdicts frozen before resolution · 196 HOLD verdicts (no entry) not counted · methodology: /accuracy · scoreboards by month → · all resolved markets

PRO $29/mo · cancel anytime

PRO — $29/mo: every AI verdict with its entry price and target, the model fair value behind it and the tracked-wallet positions that feed it, on all 164 Radar markets; wallet pages with follow; Telegram/email alert within a minute of a tracked wallet's trade. Cancel anytime; access runs to the end of the billing period.

Free: live price, volume and news brief on every tracked market; on Radar markets, how many tracked wallets hold it and whether a verdict is live; the full graded track record and monthly scoreboards.

See pricing → How it works Getting started

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

What is OddsShift?

OddsShift gives an AI verdict — BUY YES, BUY NO or HOLD — on every Polymarket market where a tracked smart-money wallet holds a position. The tracked wallets are tiered daily by their record on resolved markets. Every BUY is frozen before resolution and graded after, $1,000 per call, misses listed.

What is an AI verdict?

The call OddsShift publishes on a Radar market — a market where at least one tracked wallet holds a position. It combines the side the tracked wallets hold with 3 math models and up to 5 AI models that estimate the market's fair value, and comes out as BUY YES, BUY NO or HOLD. PRO shows the entry price, the target and the fair value behind each verdict.

What does HOLD mean?

No entry. The wallets' side and the models do not agree strongly enough against the market price to justify a position, so the verdict is not a call. HOLD verdicts are published for transparency but never counted in the graded record.

How is the record graded?

Every BUY verdict is frozen at publication with its entry price. When the market resolves it is scored as a hit or a miss, and its result is computed at $1,000 per call held to resolution. Misses are listed, HOLD verdicts are not counted. The full track record is at /accuracy, monthly scoreboards at /reports.

What does PRO include, and what is free?

PRO — $29/mo: every AI verdict with its entry price and target, the model fair value behind it and the tracked-wallet positions that feed it, on all Radar markets; wallet pages with follow; Telegram/email alert within a minute of a tracked wallet's trade. Cancel anytime; access runs to the end of the billing period. Free: live price, volume and news brief on every tracked market; on Radar markets, how many tracked wallets hold it and whether a verdict is live; the full graded track record and monthly scoreboards.

Do you execute trades?

No. OddsShift never trades for you and never holds your funds. An AI verdict or a wallet alert is information; any position is opened by you, on Polymarket, in your own account.