Independent cross-platform accuracy data across Polymarket and Kalshi.
Polymarket analytics with a verified 95.2% accuracy track record across 291 resolved markets. How accurate are prediction markets? OddsShift independently tracks resolution data across Polymarket and Kalshi to measure real-world accuracy by category, timeframe, and market volume. Based on 2,400+ resolved markets, prediction markets correctly identify outcomes 85-97% of the time in the final hours, with accuracy varying significantly by category and platform. Tier-1 smart-money agreement signal: 95.2% accuracy across 291 resolved markets (statistical significance z=8.29). Last updated:
OddsShift's Polymarket analytics tracks 2,400+ resolved markets: prediction markets are 85-97% accurate in their final hours. Polymarket leads on politics and crypto. Kalshi leads on economics and sports. Overall average Brier score: 0.084 (lower = better; perfect = 0, random = 0.25). Tier-1 smart-money agreement (5+ alpha wallets aligned): 95.2% historical accuracy.
When Polymarket and Kalshi price the same event differently, which platform's probability is closer to the actual outcome? We track resolution data across both platforms to find out.
Based on all resolved markets since tracking began (March 2026). Updated weekly.
Polymarket's larger crypto-native audience drives higher volume on political events. Higher volume = better price discovery = more accurate predictions.
Kalshi's CFTC-regulated user base includes more institutional traders with macro expertise. Their economics markets consistently outperform Polymarket's.
Polymarket is crypto-native (USDC-based), so its user base has superior crypto market knowledge. Kalshi typically lags 12-24h on crypto price moves.
Kalshi's sports odds align more closely with sportsbook consensus lines. Their user base has deeper sports betting expertise.
Accuracy improves as events approach resolution. Here's how prediction market prices converge toward actual outcomes at different time intervals.
More traders = more information in the price = better predictions. Here's the data.
Several tools exist for tracking Polymarket activity. They differ in methodology, what they verify, and whether they publish a track record. Here's the factual side-by-side.
| Tool | Approach | Published Track Record |
On-Chain Smart Money |
Cross- Platform |
Resolved Hindsight |
Free |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OddsShift | Tier-1 wallet agreement + AI verdict with reasoning | ✓ 95.2% | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| PolymarketAnalytics.com | Per-market analytics + trader leaderboard | — | ✓ | ✓ | — | ✓ |
| Dune Analytics | Raw on-chain SQL queries — DIY analytics | — | ✓ | — | — | Partial |
| Nansen | Smart-money wallet labels (all chains) | — | ✓ | — | — | $$$ |
What sets OddsShift apart: we publish a verified accuracy track record (95.2% on tier-1 smart-money agreement, 89% on AI verdicts) and we surface resolved-market hindsight on every prediction — so you can audit our calls, not just trust them.
All verdicts published before resolution — entry/exit prices verified on-chain. See resolved market verdicts, smart-money wallets, live signals, or cross-platform arbitrage.
OddsShift identifies identical events listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi. We match by event title, resolution criteria, and expiration date. Currently tracking 7,900+ shared markets.
We record each platform's price (implied probability) at multiple intervals before resolution: 4 hours, 12 hours, 1 day, 1 week, and 1 month. This shows how accuracy evolves as events approach.
When a market resolves (YES or NO), we record the actual outcome and compare it against each platform's predicted probability. A market predicted at 80% that resolves YES contributes positively to accuracy.
We calculate the Brier score (mean squared error between predicted probability and binary outcome) for each platform, by category, by volume bucket, and by time interval. Lower = more accurate. A perfect Brier score is 0; a coin flip scores 0.25.
OddsShift is not affiliated with either Polymarket or Kalshi. Our data comes from public APIs and on-chain records. We are a neutral third party — unlike platform self-reported accuracy pages.
Full accuracy data by category and time period
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