AI-powered tweet count predictions for 9 public figures. Live tracking, hourly heatmaps, Polymarket bracket analysis, and historical posting patterns. Every forecast is graded after the market closes: 309 graded, 83% inside the bracket or within 20% of the count, paper ROI +0.4% at $1,000 per call. Misses are on the page.
Select a person to see AI predictions, live count, heatmap, and bracket analysis.
Every resolved Polymarket post-count market is graded against the forecast we had 24 h before the close. Hit = within 20% of the final count or inside the winning bracket. Money = $1,000 on the bracket our forecast pointed to, at that moment's YES price, held to resolution; markets without a price at the checkpoint are not staked. Buying the favourite bracket instead would have returned −$4,193 on the same markets. As of 2026-09-10.
| Persona | Graded | Hit | Staked | Won | Avg price | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk | 92 | 80% | 65 | 30 | 50¢ | −$8,136 | -12.5% |
| Donald Trump | 41 | 78% | 21 | 10 | 37¢ | +$3,141 | +15.0% |
| Andrew Tate | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Ted Cruz | 39 | 97% | 27 | 15 | 48¢ | +$293 | +1.1% |
| CZ Binance | not graded: counter mismatch: our tracker counts original posts, the market counts all posts — grading paused 2026-09-04 | ||||||
| White House | 40 | 98% | 26 | 18 | 66¢ | −$1,160 | -4.5% |
| Khamenei | 29 | 79% | 21 | 17 | 78¢ | +$656 | +3.1% |
| NYC Mayor | 31 | 81% | 16 | 14 | 73¢ | +$3,623 | +22.6% |
| Zelenskyy | 37 | 73% | 21 | 16 | 68¢ | +$2,349 | +11.2% |
| All personas | 309 | 83% | 197 | 120 | 57¢ | +$765 | +0.4% |
OddsShift's AI model analyzes thousands of historical posts per person, identifying time-of-day patterns, day-of-week trends, and news-cycle correlations. The model generates hourly expected counts and compares them against live Polymarket bracket odds to identify over/underpriced contracts. Forecast accuracy is shown per market on each persona page, misses included.