AI-powered tweet count predictions for 9 public figures. Live tracking, hourly heatmaps, Polymarket bracket analysis, and historical posting patterns. Every forecast is graded after the market closes: 332 graded, 84% inside the bracket or within 20% of the count, paper ROI +2.7% at $1,000 per call. Misses are on the page.
Select a person to see AI predictions, live count, heatmap, and bracket analysis.
Every resolved Polymarket post-count market is graded against the forecast we had 24 h before the close. Hit = within 20% of the final count or inside the winning bracket. Money = $1,000 on the bracket our forecast pointed to, at that moment's YES price, held to resolution; markets without a price at the checkpoint are not staked. Buying the favourite bracket instead would have returned −$3,078 on the same markets. As of 2026-09-18.
| Persona | Graded | Hit | Staked | Won | Avg price | P&L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk | 98 | 82% | 71 | 34 | 51¢ | −$7,512 | -10.6% |
| Donald Trump | 44 | 80% | 24 | 11 | 37¢ | +$3,469 | +14.5% |
| Andrew Tate | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Ted Cruz | 42 | 98% | 30 | 17 | 48¢ | +$1,554 | +5.2% |
| CZ Binance | not graded: counter mismatch: our tracker counts original posts, the market counts all posts — grading paused 2026-09-04 | ||||||
| White House | 43 | 98% | 29 | 20 | 63¢ | +$3,595 | +12.4% |
| Khamenei | 31 | 81% | 23 | 19 | 79¢ | +$781 | +3.4% |
| NYC Mayor | 34 | 79% | 19 | 14 | 64¢ | +$623 | +3.3% |
| Zelenskyy | 40 | 75% | 24 | 19 | 68¢ | +$3,526 | +14.7% |
| All personas | 332 | 84% | 220 | 134 | 57¢ | +$6,036 | +2.7% |
OddsShift's AI model analyzes thousands of historical posts per person, identifying time-of-day patterns, day-of-week trends, and news-cycle correlations. The model generates hourly expected counts and compares them against live Polymarket bracket odds to identify over/underpriced contracts. Forecast accuracy is shown per market on each persona page, misses included.