Anduril IPO before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 7%: Anduril IPO before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (7% YES). The defense-tech name draws heavy trader interest, with total volume of $355,338.46 and the highest liquidity of the three at $14,433.67.

What’s Happening

Trading data as of early July 2026 shows the "Anduril IPO before 2027?" contract at a **7% YES probability** with total volume of **$355,338.46** and a tight bid/ask spread of **$0.09/$0.10**, reflecting a last trade at **$0.11**. This marks a slight decline from the **9.5% YES** level observed in the same week, indicating the market has converged on a firm view that the defense-technology firm will not list this year despite heavy trader interest and the highest liquidity among comparable private-company contracts at **$14,433.67**. The **0.01 spread** is the most efficient of the three major private-company IPO markets tracked, suggesting price discovery has stabilized around a low-probability outcome. [247wallst, Jul 08]

The low odds persist even after Anduril's **$5 billion Series H round** in May 2026, which valued the company at **$61 billion** — nearly double its **$30.5 billion** valuation from the **$2.5 billion Series G** in 2025. The funding round, led by **Thrive Capital** and **Andreessen Horowitz**, followed the U.S. Air Force's selection of Anduril in **June 2026** for the production phase of its Collaborative Combat Aircraft program, under which the company will deliver initial **FQ-44** semi-autonomous fighter aircraft for testing and validation. Despite these catalysts, the company has not signaled any public offering plans, and its CEO **Brian Schimpf** has focused communications on future warfare strategy rather than listing timelines. [Forex, Jun 23]

Comparatively, the broader 2026 IPO race shows **Anthropic** leading with an **89.5% probability** of listing this year, backed by a confidential SEC filing, while **Databricks** trails at **41%** for a 2027 debut due to market conditions and capital competition. Anduril ranks lowest among these three at **7%** for a 2027 listing, despite strong sector fundamentals and record venture investment into defense tech — over **$7.7 billion** flowed to defense-related startups in 2025, with roughly a third going to Anduril. The company, founded in **2017** by **Palmer Luckey**, remains well-connected in the Trump administration and has been a primary beneficiary of U.S. military modernization efforts, but market participants are pricing in a longer wait for its public debut. [Pluang, Jun 09]

Traded on Polymarket — $357K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 7c YES with $357K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.