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Resolved: Jun 26, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $247.1K

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

Resolved · JUN 26
NO
0c
YES
100c
Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (4 of 8 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.
MODERATE RESULT
YES WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG
14c
89c
100c
100c
Stop Loss Target Final

3 of 7 Models Agreed: YES

Model Said Fair Value estimated fair price of YES Confidence Result
Bayesian Update YES 59c
18%
PIN Model NO 2c
96%
Compound Signal YES 59c
18%
DeepSeek Quant NO 40c
70%
Grok Contrarian NO 40c
70%
Gemini Flash ??? 60c
65%
Kimi Macro YES 73c
65%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 48c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

1 of 1 Wallets Is Smart Money

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. 1 is classified as smart money. All 1 positioned NO — unanimous.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x8152..daSmartNO$1.0K+34%
See all 87 tracked wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,043 on $1.0K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)
YES positions
0% in profit
NO positions
100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform Last YES Price Volume Final
Polymarket 37c $247.1K 100c
AI Consensus 48c — × missed
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