How did 'Fed rate hike in 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Sep 16, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 6 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Sep 16, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $10.1M

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Resolved · SEP 16

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 3 of 6 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

DIRECTION MATCHED

87c

100c

Stop Loss Target Final

2 of 6 Models Agreed: YES

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	93c	86%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	38c	62%
Grok Contrarian	NO	38c	62%
Gemini Flash	YES	92c	80%
Kimi Macro	NO	35c	72%
Claude Analysis	???	—	0%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 59c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

1 of 6 Wallets Is Smart Money

Smart money is overwhelmingly positioned long YES, with entries spanning 49c-89c indicating accumulation across the move rather than a single late chase. The lone NO entry at 37c is deeply offside and signals weak contrarian conviction. This positioning skew points to sustained directional confidence toward a 2026 Fed hike.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x12d6..a8	Smart	YES	$23.7K	+5%
This Market Entered at 89c → now 50c (+5%), $23.7K on YES Activity · 3 events · Sep 12 → Sep 14 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 12BUYYES89+$96$96 Sep 13SELLYES89−$47$49 Sep 14BUYYES89+$22,551$22,600 Realized— Unrealized+$1,143 Total Profit+$1,143 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1278 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0xeb6f..f0	MM	NO	$8.6K	-53%
This Market Entered at 37c → now 50c (-53%), $8.6K on NO Activity · 24 events · Mar 23 → Aug 17 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 23BUYNO75+$2,120$2,120 Jun 16BUYNO64+$6,542$8,353 Jun 17SELLNO49−$3,403$2,950 Jun 20BUYNO35+$1,809$3,930 Jul 02BUYNO46+$5,095$10,288 Jul 08BUYNO40+$24$8,922 Jul 09BUYNO43+$1,477$11,068 Jul 10SELLNO48−$4,205$8,119 Jul 12BUYNO39+$94$6,770 Jul 13BUYNO28+$173$4,988 Jul 14BUYNO48+$1,151$9,699 Jul 15BUYNO48+$5,950$15,731 Jul 28BUYNO23+$7,068$14,545 Jul 28SELLNO23−$5,030$9,515 Jul 29BUYNO35+$8,223$22,528 Jul 29SELLNO37−$43$24,061 Jul 30BUYNO34+$11,405$33,462 Jul 30SELLNO34−$1,026$32,515 Aug 04BUYNO33+$15,098$46,990 Aug 07SELLNO46−$1,699$63,116 Aug 10SELLNO45−$0$61,744 Aug 12BUYNO46+$6,848$69,374 Aug 16SELLNO54−$5,929$76,278 Aug 17SELLNO53−$4,836$70,030 Realized−$28 Unrealized−$40,498 Total Profit−$40,526 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1188) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	YES	$6.7K	+8%
This Market Entered at 69c → now 50c (+8%), $6.7K on YES Activity · 10 events · Jul 13 → Aug 04 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 13BUYYES63+$1,654$1,654 Jul 14BUYYES66+$1,531$3,282 Jul 22BUYYES62+$16$3,079 Jul 23BUYYES66+$132$3,410 Jul 24BUYYES72+$808$4,528 Jul 27BUYYES69+$7,090$11,409 Jul 29BUYYES75+$3,024$15,483 Jul 30SELLYES66−$4,533$9,092 Aug 02SELLYES66−$4,127$4,966 Aug 04SELLYES64−$260$4,556 Realized−$421 Unrealized+$1,740 Total Profit+$1,320 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1224) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xcaab..dd	Retail	YES	$2.4K	+34%
This Market Entered at 58c → now 50c (+34%), $2.4K on YES Activity · 7 events · Jul 09 → Sep 11 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 09BUYYES52+$1,759$1,759 Jul 13BUYYES60+$13$2,042 Jul 14BUYYES65+$1,420$3,643 Jul 29SELLYES64−$1,280$2,289 Aug 06BUYYES62+$231$2,449 Sep 04SELLYES72−$1,101$1,743 Sep 11BUYYES86+$86$2,168 Realized+$354 Unrealized+$895 Total Profit+$1,250 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1520 trades).
0xeec5..fe	Retail	YES	$2.3K	+27%
This Market Entered at 73c → now 50c (+27%), $2.3K on YES Activity · 2 events · Sep 04 → Sep 11 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 04BUYYES72+$680$680 Sep 11BUYYES74+$1,092$1,795 Realized— Unrealized+$483 Total Profit+$483 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1520 trades).
0x7c3d..6b	Retail	YES	$1.8K	+84%
This Market Entered at 49c → now 50c (+84%), $1.8K on YES Activity · 2 events · Aug 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 19BUYYES49+$1,002$1,002 Aug 19SELLYES50−$85$938 Realized+$2 Unrealized+$835 Total Profit+$837 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1274 trades).

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81% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,675 on $45.4K capital deployed (avg +3.7%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

81% in profit

NO positions

19% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	94c	$10.1M	100c
AI Consensus	59c	—	✓ matched

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