As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “ Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?” at 12% YES with $1.7M traded. 4 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Trump says Iran agreed to halt enrichment, but Tehran hasn't confirmed and no signed deal makes a Dec 31 deadline unlikely.
Momentum toward a nuclear settlement accelerated in mid-2026, when Reuters reported on June 15 that a memorandum circulated by Washington and Tehran committed Iran to "neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons," with a senior Iranian official stating Tehran would freeze its nuclear activity and refrain from further uranium enrichment pending a final agreement. That followed President Donald Trump's April 16 claim that Iran had agreed to hand over its enriched uranium, which he called a "key sticking point," and his assertion that "most of the points are already negotiated." The war that erupted on February 28, 2026 gave both sides an incentive to close a deal, but the central question of whether Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31 remains contingent on a signed, final text that neither party has yet produced. [Reuters, Jun 15]
Hawks point to Trump's leverage — a naval blockade and the threat to resume airstrikes — as reason to expect capitulation, while analysts caution that Tehran has "repeatedly" pledged not to build a weapon "for decades" without dismantling enrichment. Al Jazeera, citing Axios on May 7, described a 14-point draft under which Iran would halt enrichment for "at least 12 years" and dilute its highly enriched stockpile domestically, in exchange for sanctions relief and reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. Critically, a multi-year freeze is not the same as a permanent end. [Al Jazeera, May 7]
The structural factor is precedent: the 2015 JCPOA limited but never eliminated enrichment, and Tehran has consistently resisted full cessation as a sovereignty red line. Whether Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31 therefore depends less on stated intent than on converting a framework into an irreversible, verified dismantlement before year-end — a threshold no draft has yet crossed. [CFR, Mar 2]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 14c vs market 12c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 71c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 90c | 70% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 92c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 75c | 55% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 78% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (71–98c vs 88c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 86c — market prices it at 88c. 2-point gap supports YES.
Smart money is uniformly positioned on NO, with entry prices spanning a wide range (47c-86c), suggesting accumulation at various conviction levels over time. The absence of any YES entries among tracked wallets signals a consensus that enrichment will not end by year-end, reinforcing bearish sentiment on YES. This one-sided positioning implies that any YES rally would likely face heavy resistance from these profitable NO holders looking to add or defend their positions.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $19.9K | +22% | |
| 0x2e0b..70 | MM | NO | $9.7K | +2% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $2.0K | +59% | |
| 0x22db..0f | Retail | NO | $1.4K | +86% |
All tracked NO positions are in profit, with entries ranging from 47c to 86c, indicating strong historical conviction against the YES outcome. With zero YES holders profitable, there is no upward price pressure from trapped longs, and the 12c YES price reflects persistent selling pressure. NO profit-taking could emerge near resolution, but current positioning suggests limited downside for NO unless new geopolitical catalysts emerge.
Polymarket prices YES at 12c with $1.7M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 14c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 12c | $1.7M |
| Our Model | 14c | — |