As of September 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “ Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?” at 12% YES with $1.7M traded. 4 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES). Iran, the P5+1, and the European Union reach an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program that is named the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Diplomatic efforts to secure an agreement on "iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by december 31" have entered a volatile phase, following President Donald Trump’s April 17 statement that Tehran had agreed to hand over its remaining uranium stockpile and halt enrichment activities. Trump characterized the ongoing war as going “swimmingly” and claimed it “should be ending pretty soon,” adding on Truth Social that “MOST OF THE POINTS ARE ALREADY NEGOTIATED.” However, Iranian officials have not confirmed any such concession, and a new round of U.S.-Iran talks was scheduled for the weekend following those remarks, leaving the core issue of enrichment rights unresolved [Fortune, Apr 17].
The market’s 12% YES probability reflects deep skepticism that a binding commitment on "iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by december 31" will materialize, despite the presidential optimism. A June 15 report citing Iranian state media IRNA indicated that Tehran would maintain its position on the country’s “right” to uranium enrichment and on keeping enriched material inside Iran during negotiations, directly contradicting Trump’s claim of a finalized deal. Concurrently, Israeli strikes in Lebanon have threatened to destabilize the broader regional ceasefire framework, complicating any nuclear accord that requires multi-front security guarantees [CBS News, Jun 15]. The gap between U.S. announcements and Iranian official statements has widened, with Tehran stressing that no “final conclusion” has been reached on the proposal.
The structural obstacle to any December 31 deadline remains the precedent of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), under which Iran accepted limits on enrichment to 3.67% and strict IAEA verification in exchange for sanctions relief—a deal Trump unilaterally abandoned in May 2018. Analysts note that Tehran’s current leadership has repeatedly framed enrichment as a sovereign right, making a full cessation without a parallel, verifiable sanctions-lifting mechanism politically untenable. The key variable determining whether "iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by december 31" becomes reality is not battlefield momentum but whether negotiators can bridge the verification and sanctions architecture that collapsed in 2018, as any new agreement must survive domestic political scrutiny in both Washington and Tehran [PBS, Feb 25].
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Unlock PRO — $29/mo4/5 models agree on NO, fair value 14c vs market 12c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 71c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 92c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 28c | 41% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 85% |
4 of 5 models estimate NO fair value below market (71–98c vs 88c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 86c — market prices it at 88c. 2-point gap supports YES.
We tracked 4 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 3 market makers are providing $32K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 47c–86c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $19.9K | +22% | |
| 0x2e0b..70 | MM | NO | $9.7K | +2% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $2.0K | +59% | |
| 0x22db..0f | Retail | NO | $1.4K | +86% |
NO wallets entered at 47c–86c. At current price 12c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.
Polymarket prices YES at 12c with $1.7M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 14c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 12c | $1.7M |
| Our Model | 14c | — |