As of October 18, 2026, Polymarket prices “ Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?” at 8% YES with $2.0M traded. 4 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 8% probability to: iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by december 31?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 11c vs market 8c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 96c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 74c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 91c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 88c | 55% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 88c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 95c | 82% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (74–96c vs 92c). Kimi Macro leads with 82% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 89c — market prices it at 92c. 3-point gap supports YES.
All four tracked wallets are positioned NO with entries spanning 47c-86c, signaling that informed money treated the enrichment halt as highly unlikely throughout the contract's life. The wide entry range shows accumulation on the NO side even at relatively cheap 47c levels, indicating early and persistent conviction rather than late momentum chasing. With zero YES entries from tracked wallets, there is no smart-money signal supporting the agreement scenario, reinforcing the bearish YES direction.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x22db..0f | Smart | NO | $1.5K | +95% | |
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $11.3K | +30% | |
| 0x2e0b..70 | MM | NO | $10.2K | +7% | |
| 0x0845..6f | Retail | NO | $2.1K | +66% |
Every tracked NO position is in profit while all YES holders sit underwater, confirming a one-sided market where the 8c YES price reflects near-zero conviction. NO entries at 47c-86c have captured the full drift down to 8c, and the absence of any profitable YES exposure means there is no bid support to slow further downside. With NO holders deep in the money, profit-taking risk is the main counterweight, but the price structure implies continued pressure toward single digits.
Polymarket prices YES at 8c with $2.0M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 11c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $2.0M |
| Our Model | 11c | — |