Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Jul 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $12.4M

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Q: How did 'Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jul 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUL 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (4 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (4 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.

Stop Loss Target Final

7 of 7 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	NO	15c	70%
PIN Model	NO	33c	34%
Compound Signal	NO	24c	52%
Claude Analysis	NO	9c	82%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	15c	78%
Gemini Flash	NO	24c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	76c	65%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 28c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

8 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 8 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 8 market makers are providing $167K in liquidity, primarily on YES. NO wallets entered between 35c–69c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$68.3K	+16%
This Market Entered at 44c → now 50c (+16%), $68.3K on YES Activity · 17 events · Mar 23 → Jun 18 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 23BUYYES28+$75$75 Mar 24BUYYES27+$11$82 Apr 13BUYYES38+$45$161 Apr 14BUYYES48+$6,515$6,721 May 03BUYYES26+$827$4,387 May 06BUYYES32+$192$5,659 May 07BUYYES35+$940$7,188 May 18BUYYES21+$133$4,404 May 22BUYYES25+$899$6,041 May 27BUYYES26+$1,224$7,580 May 28BUYYES25+$2,942$10,238 Jun 11BUYYES25+$195$10,524 Jun 14BUYYES39+$2,416$18,973 Jun 15BUYYES24+$860$12,174 Jun 16BUYYES40+$2,788$23,379 Jun 17BUYYES48+$25,593$53,763 Jun 18BUYYES59+$16,027$82,702 Realized— Unrealized+$13,303 Total Profit+$13,303 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1944) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x44c1..c1 +591%	MM	NO	$42.8K	+30%
This Market Entered at 35c → now 50c (+30%), $42.8K on NO ↑ Position grew +591% since last snapshot Activity · 1 event · Jun 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 19BUYNO35+$32,938$32,938 Realized— Unrealized+$9,845 Total Profit+$9,845 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1778) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x162f..8d	MM	YES	$27.1K	+39%
This Market Entered at 33c → now 50c (+39%), $27.1K on YES Activity · 9 events · Jun 11 → Jun 18 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 11BUYYES13+$839$839 Jun 12SELLYES18−$851$281 Jun 13BUYYES27+$8,940$9,364 Jun 14BUYYES35+$13,505$25,707 Jun 16BUYYES55+$623$40,711 Jun 17BUYYES57+$1,131$43,282 Jun 17SELLYES47−$9,429$26,082 Jun 18BUYYES62+$3,011$37,930 Jun 18SELLYES60−$6,635$29,659 Realized+$5,975 Unrealized+$10,826 Total Profit+$16,801 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1064) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b +72%	MM	YES	$13.0K	+10%
This Market Entered at 49c → now 50c (+10%), $13.0K on YES ↑ Position grew +72% since last snapshot Activity · 8 events · Jun 02 → Jun 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 02BUYYES23+$1,160$1,160 Jun 09BUYYES16+$325$1,113 Jun 11SELLYES19−$459$855 Jun 12SELLYES20−$362$572 Jun 17BUYYES45+$4,519$5,790 Jun 17SELLYES46−$3,099$2,763 Jun 18BUYYES63+$8,047$11,850 Jun 19BUYYES64+$3,185$15,171 Realized+$325 Unrealized+$1,198 Total Profit+$1,523 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1520) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xe25b..1b	MM	YES	$6.8K	-4%
This Market Entered at 57c → now 50c (-4%), $6.8K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jun 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 19BUYYES57+$7,160$7,160 Realized— Unrealized−$325 Total Profit−$325 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1146) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x6bab..92 ★	MM	YES	$5.8K	+8%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 50c → now 50c (+8%), $5.8K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jun 18 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 18BUYYES50+$5,349$5,349 Realized— Unrealized+$440 Total Profit+$440 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1698) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$2.0K	+82%
This Market Entered at 30c → now 50c (+82%), $2.0K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 06 DatePositionAmountTotal May 06BUYYES30+$1,075$1,075 Realized— Unrealized+$883 Total Profit+$883 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1556) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd48a..90	MM	NO	$1.3K	-34%
This Market Entered at 69c → now 50c (-34%), $1.3K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal May 08BUYNO69+$2,000$2,000 Realized— Unrealized−$682 Total Profit−$682 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (174) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

26% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$43,037 on $167.1K capital deployed (avg -25.8%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

26% in profit

YES positions

74% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	55c	$12.4M	0c
AI Consensus	28c	—	✓ matched

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