Geopolitics

Resolves: Jun 2026 31 days left Volume: $1.7M

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Q: What are the current odds for ' Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 28% YES on Polymarket with $1.7M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about ' Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?'?

OddsShift tracks 4 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for ' Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 30c YES. 7 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

72c

YES

28c

Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (28% YES).

Down from 49% to 28% since 2026-04-14 (-21pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $1.7M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $1.7M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 28c YES.

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On this market: 7/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

STRONG OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 72c

7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 30c vs market 28c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 28c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

7 of 7 Models Agree: NO

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH Bayesian Update	NO	83c	—
MATH PIN Model	NO	59c	—
MATH Compound Signal	NO	74c	—
AI Claude Analysis	NO	88c	78%
AI DeepSeek Quant	NO	83c	82%
AI Gemini Flash	NO	75c	70%
AI Kimi Macro	NO	28c	68%

7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (28–88c vs 72c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 82% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 70c — market prices it at 72c. 2-point gap supports YES.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is unanimously short the deal, with entries clustered at 69-70c implying conviction that Iran's enrichment program survives the June 30 deadline regardless of diplomatic noise. The absence of any tracked YES accumulation, even at distressed 28c levels, signals that informed flow views current pricing as still rich relative to the true probability of a verifiable enrichment halt.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$11.5K	-22%
This Market Entered at 34c → now 28c (-22%), $11.5K on YES Activity · 11 events · Mar 23 → May 28 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 23BUYYES28+$75$75 Mar 24BUYYES27+$11$82 Apr 13BUYYES38+$45$161 Apr 14BUYYES48+$6,515$6,721 May 03BUYYES26+$827$4,387 May 06BUYYES32+$192$5,659 May 07BUYYES35+$940$7,188 May 18BUYYES21+$133$4,404 May 22BUYYES25+$899$6,041 May 27BUYYES26+$1,224$7,580 May 28BUYYES25+$2,942$10,238 Realized— Unrealized−$2,258 Total Profit−$2,258 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1870) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd48a..90	MM	NO	$2.1K	+4%
This Market Entered at 69c → now 72c (+4%), $2.1K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal May 08BUYNO69+$2,000$2,000 Realized— Unrealized+$86 Total Profit+$86 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (114) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33 ★	Retail	NO	$1.1K	+4%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 70c → now 72c (+4%), $1.1K on NO Activity · 4 events · Apr 01 → Apr 27 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 01BUYNO80+$490$490 Apr 21BUYNO51+$11$324 Apr 25BUYNO59+$321$696 Apr 27BUYNO69+$230$1,043 Realized— Unrealized+$36 Total Profit+$36 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1828 trades).
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$1.0K	-6%
This Market Entered at 30c → now 28c (-6%), $1.0K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 06 DatePositionAmountTotal May 06BUYYES30+$1,075$1,075 Realized— Unrealized−$69 Total Profit−$69 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1532) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

All four tracked wallets on the NO side are sitting on paper gains, having entered at 69-70c with YES now at 28c — a 40+ point markdown on the YES tail. YES buyers at 30-34c are underwater by 2-6c and lack any profitable cohort to defend the bid, leaving NO holders with no incentive to take profit at current spreads.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 28c YES — $1.7M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 28c with $1.7M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 30c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	28c	$1.7M
Our Model	30c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 28% YES with $1.7M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

OddsShift tracks 4 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 30c YES. 7 models agree on direction.