Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Jul 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $5.5M

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Q: How did 'Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jul 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUL 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (3 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	10c	80%
Compound Signal	NO	30c	40%
Claude Analysis	NO	6c	88%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	12c	78%
Gemini Flash	NO	25c	65%
Kimi Macro	NO	16c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 16c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

6 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is unambiguously positioned NO, with entries clustered at 78-79c signaling high conviction that Iran will not surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30. The YES side's averaged entry near 30c — now deeply underwater — suggests early speculative longs were faded by informed flow, reinforcing structural downside toward single digits.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x0c0e..4e	MM	NO	$45.4K	+15%
This Market Entered at 81c → now 50c (+15%), $45.4K on NO Activity · 4 events · Apr 29 → Jun 01 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 29BUYNO78+$1,951$1,951 Apr 30BUYNO79+$23,879$25,847 May 27BUYNO81+$4,756$31,371 Jun 01BUYNO88+$8,302$42,542 Realized— Unrealized+$6,490 Total Profit+$6,490 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1514) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x2e0b..70	MM	NO	$7.0K	+19%
This Market Entered at 78c → now 50c (+19%), $7.0K on NO Activity · 4 events · Apr 26 → May 02 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 26BUYNO72+$13$13 Apr 27BUYNO75+$2,882$2,896 Apr 28BUYNO78+$1,864$4,876 May 02BUYNO87+$1,007$6,446 Realized— Unrealized+$1,220 Total Profit+$1,220 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (768) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$2.9K	-65%
This Market Entered at 23c → now 50c (-65%), $2.9K on YES Activity · 3 events · May 06 → May 25 DatePositionAmountTotal May 06BUYYES21+$5,614$5,614 May 23BUYYES23+$653$6,939 May 25BUYYES28+$5,546$13,843 Realized— Unrealized−$8,943 Total Profit−$8,943 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1554) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$2.7K	-105%
This Market Entered at 18c → now 50c (-105%), $2.7K on YES Activity · 11 events · Apr 17 → Jun 09 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 17BUYYES68+$1,866$1,866 Apr 19BUYYES54+$3,853$5,326 Apr 20BUYYES43+$11$4,286 Apr 21BUYYES36+$34$3,623 May 07BUYYES23+$4$2,318 May 18BUYYES16+$881$2,493 May 22BUYYES20+$122$3,241 May 25BUYYES35+$34$5,705 Jun 05BUYYES13+$453$2,572 Jun 06BUYYES11+$1,336$3,512 Jun 09BUYYES11+$1,922$5,352 Realized— Unrealized−$5,967 Total Profit−$5,967 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1922) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	YES	$2.6K	-82%
This Market Entered at 28c → now 50c (-82%), $2.6K on YES Activity · 16 events · Apr 19 → May 25 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 19BUYYES54+$383$383 Apr 20BUYYES45+$1,951$2,267 Apr 21BUYYES33+$797$2,496 Apr 22BUYYES30+$33$2,270 Apr 24BUYYES28+$2,506$4,634 May 10SELLYES22−$813$2,832 May 18BUYYES17+$637$2,857 May 18SELLYES21−$15$3,447 May 19SELLYES17−$81$2,709 May 20BUYYES19+$1,241$4,260 May 20SELLYES21−$362$4,425 May 22BUYYES20+$75$4,232 May 23BUYYES19+$1,620$5,616 May 23SELLYES21−$525$5,716 May 24BUYYES37+$2,975$13,081 May 25BUYYES29+$2,753$12,824 Realized−$718 Unrealized−$10,048 Total Profit−$10,765 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1512) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x12d6..a8	MM	NO	$1.5K	+6%
This Market Entered at 89c → now 50c (+6%), $1.5K on NO Activity · 1 event · Jun 08 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 08BUYNO89+$1,401$1,401 Realized— Unrealized+$83 Total Profit+$83 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1280) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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87% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$4,837 on $62.0K capital deployed (avg +7.8%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

87% in profit

YES positions

13% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	6c	$5.5M	0c
AI Consensus	16c	—	✓ matched

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