AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 6c |
88%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 12c |
76%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 17c |
66%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 7c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
82%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 12c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is decisively NO-dominant, with conviction entries at 93c signaling high confidence that Israel does not withdraw from Lebanon before June 30, 2026. The YES side at 13c looks like cheap-lottery positioning rather than directional alpha — tracked wallets are pricing withdrawal as a tail event, not a base case.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | MM | NO | $1.9K | +0% | |
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $1.3K | -53% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,173 on $3.2K capital deployed (avg -37.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $3.5M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |