Was the AI verdict correct?

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	YES	93c	86%
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	66c	32%
Claude Analysis	YES	91c	70%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	86c	65%
Gemini Flash	YES	90c	75%
Kimi Macro	YES	86c	75%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 87c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

5 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

All 5 tracked wallets sit on the YES side with entries clustered in the 75c-92c range, signaling unanimous smart money conviction that MicroStrategy will sell at least some Bitcoin before year-end 2026. Despite the dominant_side flag reading NO, the actual wallet flow shows zero NO exposure — a strong directional bet that Saylor's hold-forever thesis breaks within the window.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x44c1..c1 +59%	MM	YES	$26.1K	+1%
This Market Entered at 89c → now 50c (+1%), $26.1K on YES ↑ Position grew +59% since last snapshot Activity · 3 events · May 29 → May 31 DatePositionAmountTotal May 29BUYYES88+$8,085$8,084 May 30BUYYES90+$8,086$16,375 May 31BUYYES90+$9,703$26,078 Realized— Unrealized+$204 Total Profit+$204 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1722) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x6bab..92 ★	MM	YES	$5.9K	+17%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 77c → now 50c (+17%), $5.9K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal May 08BUYYES77+$5,024$5,024 May 08SELLYES80−$4$5,244 Realized— Unrealized+$879 Total Profit+$879 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1686) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$4.6K	+17%
This Market Entered at 75c → now 50c (+17%), $4.6K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 06 → May 14 DatePositionAmountTotal May 06BUYYES49+$918$918 May 14BUYYES89+$2,907$4,560 Realized— Unrealized+$786 Total Profit+$786 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1042) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5188..04	MM	YES	$2.4K	+2%
This Market Entered at 88c → now 50c (+2%), $2.4K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 31 DatePositionAmountTotal May 31BUYYES88+$2,327$2,327 Realized— Unrealized+$53 Total Profit+$53 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1546) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xcaab..dd	MM	YES	$1.5K	-5%
This Market Entered at 92c → now 50c (-5%), $1.5K on YES Activity · 5 events · Feb 05 → May 22 DatePositionAmountTotal Feb 05SELLYES27−$5$0 May 08SELLYES74−$36$0 May 14BUYYES92+$844$844 May 15BUYYES91+$1,400$2,239 May 22SELLYES80−$565$1,395 Realized−$82 Unrealized−$27 Total Profit−$109 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1524) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$6,955 on $40.5K capital deployed (avg +17.2%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	90c	$2.3M	100c
AI Consensus	87c	—	✓ matched

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