Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Will Cale Makar win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES). Dahlin, Makar, Werenski voted Norris Trophy finalists | NHL.com.
The National Hockey League announced on May 7, 2026 that Rasmus Dahlin of the Buffalo Sabres, Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche, and Zach Werenski of the Columbus Blue Jackets were named the three finalists for the 2025-26 cale makar nhl james norris memorial trophy, awarded annually to the defenseman voted the best at his position by the Professional Hockey Writers Association. Makar, who won the Norris in 2021-22, returns to the finalist list seeking his second career trophy. The winner will be announced at a later date during the NHL Awards ceremony, with voting already submitted by PHWA members at the conclusion of the regular season. [NHL.com, May 7]
The competitive field reflects a deep field of blue-line talent this season. Dahlin, a first-time Norris finalist, led the Buffalo Sabres in even-strength goals (13) and even-strength points (52), establishing himself as the offensive engine of his team's back end. Werenski posted career-best production for Columbus, while Makar continued his standing as the gold standard for puck-moving defensemen on a contending Avalanche roster. Voters have historically favored finalists who combine elite offensive output with reliable two-way play, and the trio represents three distinct profiles entering ballot season. The current standings on the cale makar nhl james norris memorial trophy market reflect a three-way race in which Makar enters as one of three viable candidates rather than a clear front-runner. [NHL.com, May 7]
Historical precedent shows the Norris Trophy rarely has a unanimous favorite among three finalists, with PHWA voting often splitting along regional and stylistic lines. The award has been won by a repeat winner in only a handful of recent cycles, and Makar's 2022 victory places him in the category of established former winners seeking a second nod. With the announcement ceremony approaching and no further voting input possible, the outcome is now locked pending reveal. Makar's odds of capturing his second career Norris will be settled when the NHL formally names the winner during awards week, with all three finalists carrying credible statistical cases into the announcement. [NHL.com, May 7]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($62K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 10c YES.
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