Prediction markets give a 6% probability to: will cale makar win the 2025–2026 nhl james norris memorial trophy? — **4/1/26:**Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar addressed Makar’s status Wednesday morning, telling Altitude Sports that Makar is going to “miss some time here” but that the injury overall is “nothing se.
Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar suffered an upper-body injury during a game against the Calgary Flames on March 30, 2026, exiting on what proved to be his final shift of the contest after recording three assists, including a primary assist on Nathan MacKinnon's power-play goal. Head coach Jared Bednar confirmed on April 1 that Makar would "miss some time" but characterized the injury as "nothing serious" and not a threat to his playoff availability. The Avalanche, with approximately nine games remaining in the regular season, indicated they would manage Makar's return conservatively to ensure he is fully healthy heading into the postseason. [NHL.com, Apr 1]
At the time of his injury, Makar had accumulated 75 points on the season, maintaining his status as one of the premier offensive defensemen in the league. However, his Norris Trophy candidacy — awarded annually to the NHL's top defenseman — faces significant headwinds entering the final stretch of the regular season. Norris voting heavily weighs late-season performance and overall point totals, and Makar's absence during the final weeks limits his ability to pad his statistics relative to competitors who remain active. The timing of the injury, coming with multiple regular-season games still to play, is a direct factor in the low probability attached to his winning the award. [ProHockeyRumors, Apr 1]
The 2025–26 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy race features multiple defensemen who have posted strong campaigns, and Makar's missed time effectively cedes ground to those candidates in the final weeks of voting consideration. Bednar stated explicitly that the team's priority is ensuring Makar is "right for playoffs," signaling Colorado will not rush him back regardless of individual award implications. Makar previously won the Norris Trophy in 2022 and has been a perennial finalist, but a late-season injury at this stage of the calendar makes a repeat award unlikely given the competition and the points he will forfeit while sidelined. His return timeline remains unspecified beyond the broad characterization of "some time." [Bolavip, Apr 2]
Polymarket prices this at 6% YES with $56K in total trading volume.
What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.
Unlock PRO — $29/moStrong insider signal detected. Smart money accumulating at 35–40c with high conviction. Risk-adjusted upside remains favorable.
We tracked 12 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. Five trade exclusively political events — primaries, elections, and policy votes. Their combined win rate across 147 resolved bets is 84%. All five are positioned YES. The remaining 7 wallets are mixed-portfolio traders with a lower 62% win rate, split between YES (4) and NO (3).
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7a..f2 | Insider | YES | $46K | +153% | |
| 0x3f..a2 | Smart | YES | $14.2K | +217% | |
| 0xa8..c7 | Smart | NO | $12.4K | -5% | |
| 0x7c..f1 | Smart | YES | $8.7K | +111% | |
| 0xb2..d9 | Insider | YES | $6.1K | +153% | |
| 0x91..e4 | Retail | YES | $5.3K | +73% | |
| 0xd4..b3 | Retail | YES | $4.8K | +90% | |
| 0xe7..a1 | MM | NO | $3.9K | +3% | |
| 0xf2..c8 | Smart | YES | $2.1K | +171% | |
| 0xc1..d5 | Retail | NO | $1.8K | +7% | |
| 0xa3..e9 | Smart | YES | $1.5K | +138% | |
| 0x55..f7 | Retail | YES | $1.2K | +27% |
4 of the top-5 YES wallets trade ONLY this market. Combined position: $178K. All entered at 15-16c (now 38c, +140% unrealized profit). None have any other positions on Polymarket.
This pattern — new wallets, single market, large conviction — has preceded correct outcomes in 73% of similar cases in our dataset.
Most YES wallets entered between 12c and 22c over the past 3 weeks. They’re sitting on 2–3x unrealized gains and none have started selling — creating a price floor around 20c. Meanwhile, NO wallets entered at 60–70c and 56% are now underwater as price drifted down to 62c.
78% of YES positions are in profit — most YES buyers entered early and are sitting on gains without selling, indicating conviction. Only 44% of NO positions are profitable — the majority bought high and are now underwater. This disparity strongly favors YES.
Polymarket prices YES at 38c while Kalshi has it at 24c — a 14-cent gap. Gaps above 10c have historically closed within 10 days, with the platform receiving more smart-money flow being right 73% of the time. In this case, Polymarket has 4x the smart-money volume on YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume | SM Flow | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 38c | $247K | $47K | |
| Kalshi | 24c | $65K | $4K | |
| Our Model | 52c | — | — |
Five independent mathematical frameworks analyzed this market. Four converge on YES being underpriced at 38c. The Bayesian model sees 54% probability based on historical primary patterns. The Hidden Markov model detects a regime shift since the March 22 ruling. Only the Gaussian Process model dissents, flagging high timeline uncertainty over 24 months.
| Model | Verdict | Confidence | Agrees? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Inference | YES 54% | ||
| Hidden Markov | YES 61% | ||
| PIN Model | YES 48% | ||
| Ensemble Boosting | YES 57% | ||
| Gaussian Process | NO 52% |
Since launch, we’ve published 15 signals in the Politics category. 13 resolved in line with our recommendation, generating an average return of +62% per signal. Our 2 losses averaged –24%. Full history below — no cherry-picking.
| Signal | Entry | Exit | Return | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Rate Dec 2025 | 38c | 69c | +81% | WON | |
| Ukraine Ceasefire Q1 | 76c | 94c | +24% | WON | |
| Trump VP Pick | 42c | 31c | -26% | LOST | |
| Midterm Senate Control | 22c | 78c | +254% | WON | |
| Biden Withdrawal | 65c | 91c | +40% | WON | |