AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 97c |
94%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 74c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 95c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 91c |
75%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 91c |
86%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 77c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money took a single directional YES bet near 91c and has not rotated, signaling conviction that the BoJ holds rates steady. The absence of any NO entries from tracked wallets reinforces a one-sided read: informed flow treats a hold as the base case, not a contested outcome.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $3.3K | +3% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$322 on $3.3K capital deployed (avg +9.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $385.1K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 77c | — | ✓ matched |