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Geopolitics
Resolves: Jun 2026 4 days left Volume: $304K

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?

NO
60c
YES
40c

Prediction markets put the probability at 40%: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3. Currently, markets are divided (40% YES, 60% NO).

Up from 31% to 40% since 2026-05-28 (+9pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $304K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 40c YES with $304K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →
OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.
MODERATE OUR VERDICT
BUY NO 60c

7-point gap between model (33c) and market (40c) supports NO. BUY NO at 40c — models see 7c of upside.

+57% TARGET YIELD
36c
94c
100c
60c
67c
Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

Models Are Divided on This Market

ModelSaysFair Value estimated fair priceConfidence
MATH PIN ModelYES80c—
MATH Compound SignalNO58c—
AI Claude AnalysisNO68c
55%
AI DeepSeek QuantNO75c
65%
AI Gemini Flash???50c
50%
AI Kimi MacroYES61c
60%

3 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (58–75c vs 60c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 65% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 67c — market prices it at 60c. 7-point gap supports NO.

Why One Model Disagrees: PIN Model dissents at 80c — PIN=100% informed trading. 1 smart vs 0 retail wallets. Informed capital concentrated 0% on NO. Fair value: 80% YES.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money positioning is sparse — a lone YES entry at 32c suggests opportunistic rather than thesis-driven exposure on a ceasefire announcement. Combined with the NO-dominant flow, the signal leans bearish: trackable alpha is not anchoring the YES side ahead of the June 3 deadline.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x12d6..a8MMYES$3.9K+12%
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All YES Positions Are in Profit

The single tracked YES position entered at 32c against the current 40c mark, sitting at roughly 25% in profit. With only one wallet exposed and the dominant side reading NO, profitability is thin and offers minimal conviction-based support at the 40c level.

Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
100% in profit
NO positions
0% in profit

Polymarket: 40c YES — $304K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 40c with $304K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 33c. 7-point gap suggests market may undervalue NO.

PlatformYES PriceVolume
Polymarket40c$304K
Our Model33c—
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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 40% YES with $304K in total volume.

Where can I bet on US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 33c YES. 3 models agree on direction.