How did 'US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Jun 15, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 6 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jun 15, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $2.3M

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Resolved · JUN 15

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 3 of 6 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	86c	72%
Compound Signal	YES	63c	26%
Claude Analysis	YES	72c	55%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	74c	65%
Kimi Macro	YES	74c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 74c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is decisively long: YES dominates entry flow across a tight 62-73c band, signaling conviction accumulation rather than speculative tail bets, while the lone NO cohort is stranded at 48c with no follow-through buyers. The pattern — concentrated YES entries near current price plus underwater NO — points to continued drift toward deal-likely pricing absent a hard diplomatic break.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x162f..8d	MM	YES	$12.7K	+36%
This Market Entered at 65c → now 50c (+36%), $12.7K on YES Activity · 6 events · May 20 → Jun 13 DatePositionAmountTotal May 20BUYYES62+$1,682$1,682 Jun 07BUYYES67+$7,063$8,881 Jun 10BUYYES64+$3,570$12,104 Jun 11BUYYES63+$727$12,572 Jun 12SELLYES71−$1,056$13,134 Jun 13SELLYES80−$4,020$10,756 Realized+$821 Unrealized+$3,918 Total Profit+$4,739 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (932) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	YES	$2.5K	+21%
This Market Entered at 75c → now 50c (+21%), $2.5K on YES Activity · 5 events · Jun 12 → Jun 14 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 12BUYYES73+$2,319$2,319 Jun 13BUYYES76+$351$2,754 Jun 13SELLYES79−$620$2,250 Jun 14BUYYES83+$513$2,870 Jun 14SELLYES80−$632$2,134 Realized+$80 Unrealized+$518 Total Profit+$598 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1006) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$2.2K	+12%
This Market Entered at 62c → now 50c (+12%), $2.2K on YES Activity · 6 events · Mar 23 → May 07 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 23BUYYES51+$2,573$2,573 Apr 14BUYYES66+$802$4,139 Apr 16BUYYES69+$654$4,970 Apr 20BUYYES70+$187$5,224 May 06BUYYES60+$933$5,434 May 07BUYYES65+$339$6,202 Realized— Unrealized+$750 Total Profit+$750 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (2793) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xeec5..fe	Retail	YES	$1.9K	+28%
This Market Entered at 71c → now 50c (+28%), $1.9K on YES Activity · 6 events · Apr 09 → Jun 12 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 09BUYYES57+$100$100 Apr 13BUYYES54+$200$294 Apr 17BUYYES77+$1,326$1,743 Apr 17SELLYES77−$77$1,673 Jun 03BUYYES65+$42$1,455 Jun 12SELLYES78−$156$1,587 Realized+$19 Unrealized+$472 Total Profit+$491 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1542 trades).
0x5cd5..33 ★	Retail	YES	$1.1K	+17%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 80c → now 50c (+17%), $1.1K on YES Activity · 4 events · May 24 → Jun 14 DatePositionAmountTotal May 24BUYYES79+$193$193 Jun 12BUYYES74+$124$304 Jun 13BUYYES79+$436$761 Jun 14BUYYES87+$184$1,022 Realized— Unrealized+$173 Total Profit+$173 Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.

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100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$9,958 on $20.5K capital deployed (avg +48.6%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	94c	$2.3M	100c
AI Consensus	74c	—	✓ matched

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