Other
Resolved: Jun 15, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $11.3M

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Resolved · JUN 15
NO
0c
YES
100c
Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 3 of 6 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.
MODERATE RESULT
YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

DIRECTION MATCHED
27c
59c
100c
100c
Stop Loss Target Final

2 of 6 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model Said Fair Value estimated fair price of YES Confidence Result
Bayesian Update NO 28c
44%
PIN Model YES 74c
48%
Compound Signal NO 43c
14%
Claude Analysis YES 68c
55%
DeepSeek Quant NO 28c
72%
Kimi Macro NO 52c
65%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 49c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

9 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Despite NO being the dominant side by wallet count, the smart money entry timing favors YES — early YES buyers caught the bottom while NO entries clustered at peak 65-71c suggest reactive positioning, not informed conviction. The fact that zero NO wallets are profitable indicates the bearish side is trapped, and any unwinding pressure from NO covers would push price higher toward a deal-likely zone.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x162f..8dMMYES$64.2K+76%
0xbacd..35MMYES$55.0K+24%
0x0845..6fMMYES$11.0K+11%
0xde7b..4bMMYES$8.4K+227%
0x5188..04MMYES$7.7K+58%
0x4e25..a7MMYES$6.5K+172%
0x7c3d..6bMMYES$3.8K+24%
0x24c8..e1MMNO$3.1K-70%
0x22db..0fRetailYES$2.1K+24%
0x0c0e..4eMMNO$1.4K-84%
See all 87 tracked wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

97% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$269,470 on $163.2K capital deployed (avg +165.1%).

YES positions
97% in profit
NO positions
3% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform Last YES Price Volume Final
Polymarket 80c $11.3M 100c
AI Consensus 49c × missed