As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “US recession by end of 2026?” at 6% YES with $2.3M traded. 7 tracked wallets hold a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Polymarket traders put recession odds at just 8%, betting the US economy avoids a downturn through 2026 despite bearish forecaster warnings.
The "US recession by end of 2026" contract now trades at 8% YES against 92% NO, a sharp retreat from the 30% YES level recorded in mid-April, when roughly $1.3 million had been wagered on whether the American economy would tip into contraction before January 2027. At that spring peak, the crowd matched Goldman Sachs at 30%, sat below JPMorgan at 35%, and trailed Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi, who pushed his estimate close to 50%. The collapse in implied odds since then tracks incoming data that has yet to confirm a broad downturn, leaving the probability of a us recession this year priced near its lowest point of 2026. [Forbes, Apr 14]
The bearish case remains on record. Veteran forecaster Gary Shilling, who was fired from Merrill Lynch for correctly calling the 1969-70 recession, warned on May 5, 2026 that a us recession was "almost inevitable" by year-end, citing a "frozen" housing market, weak corporate investment and a fading consumer. He paired that with a call for a 20% to 30% equity correction, noting S&P 500 price-to-sales and price-to-book ratios at all-time highs. Valuation gauges echo the concern: the Buffett indicator stood near 213% in March, above its 193% peak in late 2021 that preceded the following year's bear market. [Business Insider, May 2]
The competing risk is stagflation rather than outright contraction. On May 14, 2026, traders placed nearly 40% odds on stagflation by end of 2026, as surging oil prices and inflation invited comparisons to the supply shocks of the 1970s. Raymond James chief economist Eugenio Aleman framed the scenario as below-potential growth paired with higher inflation, while stressing it would fall short of the severity seen in the early 1980s. The path ahead hinges on forthcoming CPI, employment and GDP releases; a sustained deterioration would revive the recession bid, while resilient consumer spending and a stable labor market would keep the NO side dominant. [CNBC, May 14]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo8/8 models agree on NO, fair value 11c vs market 6c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 6c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 96c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 74c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 92c | 85% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 94c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 78c | 41% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 92c | 88% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 78% |
8 of 8 models estimate NO fair value below market (74–98c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 88% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 89c — market prices it at 94c. 5-point gap supports YES.
Seven tracked wallets are uniformly positioned on NO, with no YES entries recorded, indicating one-sided smart-money conviction against a 2026 recession. Their 67c-90c NO entries show they were willing to pay up for the bearish-recession view to be wrong, signaling confidence in continued economic resilience. This alignment points to further drift toward lower YES prices unless a macro shock forces repricing.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc021..a8 ★ | Smart | NO | $12.0K | +33% | |
| 0x6828..56 | Smart | NO | $3.6K | +5% | |
| 0xeb6f..f0 | MM | NO | $37.3K | +24% | |
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | NO | $7.1K | +4% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $4.4K | +10% | |
| 0xc30c..09 | MM | NO | $2.8K | +5% | |
| 0x1c1e..e7 | MM | NO | $1.7K | +32% |
All tracked NO positions are in profit with entries between 67c and 90c against a current YES price of 6c, implying NO trades near 94c. Zero YES holders are profitable, creating strong downside pressure on YES and reinforcing the 6c level as a ceiling rather than a floor. The absence of profitable YES exposure suggests little organic bid support for a recession call at these odds.
Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $2.3M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 11c. 5-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $2.3M |
| Our Model | 11c | — |