As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “US recession by end of 2026?” at 8% YES with $1.7M traded. 4 tracked wallets hold a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Polymarket traders put recession odds at just 8%, betting the US economy avoids a downturn through 2026 despite bearish forecaster warnings.
The "US recession by end of 2026" contract now trades at 8% YES against 92% NO, a sharp retreat from the 30% YES level recorded in mid-April, when roughly $1.3 million had been wagered on whether the American economy would tip into contraction before January 2027. At that spring peak, the crowd matched Goldman Sachs at 30%, sat below JPMorgan at 35%, and trailed Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi, who pushed his estimate close to 50%. The collapse in implied odds since then tracks incoming data that has yet to confirm a broad downturn, leaving the probability of a us recession this year priced near its lowest point of 2026. [Forbes, Apr 14]
The bearish case remains on record. Veteran forecaster Gary Shilling, who was fired from Merrill Lynch for correctly calling the 1969-70 recession, warned on May 5, 2026 that a us recession was "almost inevitable" by year-end, citing a "frozen" housing market, weak corporate investment and a fading consumer. He paired that with a call for a 20% to 30% equity correction, noting S&P 500 price-to-sales and price-to-book ratios at all-time highs. Valuation gauges echo the concern: the Buffett indicator stood near 213% in March, above its 193% peak in late 2021 that preceded the following year's bear market. [Business Insider, May 2]
The competing risk is stagflation rather than outright contraction. On May 14, 2026, traders placed nearly 40% odds on stagflation by end of 2026, as surging oil prices and inflation invited comparisons to the supply shocks of the 1970s. Raymond James chief economist Eugenio Aleman framed the scenario as below-potential growth paired with higher inflation, while stressing it would fall short of the severity seen in the early 1980s. The path ahead hinges on forthcoming CPI, employment and GDP releases; a sustained deterioration would revive the recession bid, while resilient consumer spending and a stable labor market would keep the NO side dominant. [CNBC, May 14]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/8 models agree on NO, fair value 10c vs market 8c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 8c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 96c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 74c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 91c | 82% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 93c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 28c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 92c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 78% |
7 of 8 models estimate NO fair value below market (74–98c vs 92c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 90c — market prices it at 92c. 2-point gap supports YES.
All four tracked wallets are positioned exclusively on NO, with no YES entries recorded, signaling unanimous smart-money conviction against a 2026 US recession. Their 67c-90c NO entries show they bought downside risk early and cheaply, and the resulting unrealized gains likely anchor continued NO bias. This one-sided positioning suggests the market's 8c YES price reflects informed consensus rather than mispricing.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc021..a8 ★ | Smart | NO | $11.7K | +30% | |
| 0xeb6f..f0 | MM | NO | $33.8K | +23% | |
| 0xc30c..09 | MM | NO | $2.1K | +1% | |
| 0x1c1e..e7 | MM | NO | $1.7K | +29% |
All tracked NO positions are in profit with entries at 67c-90c against a current YES price of 8c, implying NO trades around 92c. This 100% NO profitability creates strong incentive to hold or add, reinforcing price support for NO and keeping YES capped near 8c. No YES holder is in profit, so upside pressure from that cohort is absent.
Polymarket prices YES at 8c with $1.7M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 10c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $1.7M |
| Our Model | 10c | — |