US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 54% YES on Polymarket with $14.0M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 12 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

YES

54c

46c

Prediction markets give a 54% probability to: us x iran permanent peace deal by june 30, 2026?.

Currently at 54%

Traded on Polymarket — $14.0M Volume

One of the highest-volume markets on Polymarket with $14.0M traded. Deep liquidity means tight spreads — you can enter and exit large positions without significant slippage. Currently priced at 54c YES.

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Smart money signal: 12 tracked wallets positioned YES with 1.9x conviction. Backed by $14.0M in trading volume.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY YES 54c

Smart money entered YES at 29c–64c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

7 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 12 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 7 market makers are providing $267K in liquidity, primarily on YES. All 1 positioned YES — unanimous.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xb8e6..67	Smart	YES	$2.0K	+6%
This Market Entered at 50c → now 54c (+6%), $2.0K on YES Activity · 3 events · Apr 13 → May 05 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 13BUYYES39+$121$121 Apr 24BUYYES53+$1,596$1,760 May 05BUYYES41+$172$1,534 Realized— Unrealized+$112 Total Profit+$112 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1602 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0xc658..84	MM	YES	$202.7K	+19%
This Market Entered at 43c → now 54c (+19%), $202.7K on YES Activity · 17 events · Apr 16 → May 24 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 16BUYYES68+$8,160$8,161 Apr 17SELLYES76−$9,212$1 Apr 20BUYYES69+$6,238$6,239 Apr 24BUYYES52+$7,073$11,789 May 06BUYYES46+$25,385$35,798 May 07BUYYES50+$17,041$56,114 May 09SELLYES52−$57,509$151 May 10BUYYES46+$34,088$34,223 May 10SELLYES41−$18,016$12,406 May 11BUYYES42+$2,624$15,238 May 12BUYYES35+$16,689$29,387 May 14BUYYES34+$42,070$70,617 May 18BUYYES30+$803$63,113 May 20BUYYES38+$20,544$100,740 May 21BUYYES44+$14,205$131,171 May 23BUYYES51+$41,121$192,532 May 24BUYYES53+$1,087$202,587 Realized+$715 Unrealized+$38,054 Total Profit+$38,770 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1758) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	Retail	YES	$24.5K	+42%
This Market Entered at 29c → now 54c (+42%), $24.5K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 18 → May 23 DatePositionAmountTotal May 18BUYYES27+$11,428$11,428 May 23BUYYES59+$1,748$27,289 Realized— Unrealized+$11,374 Total Profit+$11,374 Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.
0x24c8..e1	MM	YES	$17.4K	-20%
This Market Entered at 57c → now 54c (-20%), $17.4K on YES Activity · 16 events · Apr 17 → May 25 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 17BUYYES72+$6,750$6,750 Apr 19BUYYES71+$2,384$9,036 Apr 21BUYYES66+$3,610$12,012 Apr 21SELLYES65−$1,577$10,250 Apr 29SELLYES41−$550$5,915 May 01BUYYES39+$377$6,003 May 13SELLYES34−$680$4,553 May 18BUYYES38+$1,026$6,115 May 20BUYYES36+$3,848$9,707 May 20SELLYES30−$632$7,492 May 22SELLYES38−$1,911$7,467 May 23BUYYES55+$4,252$15,076 May 23SELLYES33−$925$8,106 May 24BUYYES65+$2,300$18,172 May 24SELLYES54−$530$14,657 May 25BUYYES60+$3,281$19,499 Realized−$2,938 Unrealized−$1,019 Total Profit−$3,957 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1604) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$16.5K	+10%
This Market Entered at 40c → now 46c (+10%), $16.5K on NO Activity · 10 events · Apr 16 → May 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 16BUYNO30+$100$100 Apr 17BUYNO32+$715$822 Apr 18BUYNO34+$2,843$3,716 Apr 21BUYNO33+$4,410$8,050 Apr 23BUYNO43+$955$11,351 May 10BUYNO52+$3,293$17,020 May 11SELLNO59−$223$19,088 May 18BUYNO76+$506$25,094 May 22BUYNO59+$118$19,599 May 23BUYNO58+$1,266$20,532 Realized+$81 Unrealized+$2,406 Total Profit+$2,486 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1974) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x12d6..a8	Retail	NO	$15.7K	+35%
This Market Entered at 35c → now 46c (+35%), $15.7K on NO Activity · 16 events · Apr 17 → May 25 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 17BUYNO20+$2,078$2,079 Apr 18BUYNO32+$53$3,365 Apr 19BUYNO35+$327$4,032 Apr 20BUYNO30+$2,430$5,868 Apr 22BUYNO38+$102$7,575 Apr 24BUYNO47+$1,048$10,331 Apr 24SELLNO54−$107$11,872 Apr 26BUYNO48+$14$10,567 May 20BUYNO60+$4,524$17,825 May 20SELLNO61−$5,544$12,452 May 21BUYNO61+$127$12,579 May 22BUYNO59+$1,889$13,996 May 22SELLNO59−$121$13,944 May 23BUYNO27+$3,341$9,804 May 23SELLNO59−$1,669$19,480 May 25BUYNO39+$307$13,184 Realized+$3,075 Unrealized+$3,817 Total Profit+$6,892 Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$10.5K	+18%
This Market Entered at 41c → now 54c (+18%), $10.5K on YES Activity · 10 events · Apr 17 → May 25 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 17SELLYES80−$591$0 Apr 18BUYYES68+$679$679 Apr 19BUYYES69+$1,378$2,067 May 04BUYYES33+$1,314$2,304 May 07BUYYES57+$2,850$6,830 May 07SELLYES55−$2,733$3,816 May 18BUYYES26+$4,661$6,469 May 18SELLYES28−$2,800$4,196 May 23SELLYES52−$519$7,258 May 25BUYYES63+$3,994$12,851 Realized−$192 Unrealized+$2,447 Total Profit+$2,254 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1032) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc408..75	MM	YES	$9.8K	-8%
This Market Entered at 55c → now 54c (-8%), $9.8K on YES Activity · 3 events · May 07 → May 21 DatePositionAmountTotal May 07BUYYES57+$11,400$11,400 May 21BUYYES41+$926$9,126 May 21SELLYES42−$1,680$7,669 Realized−$535 Unrealized−$343 Total Profit−$878 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1444) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x162f..8d	MM	YES	$6.4K	+6%
This Market Entered at 50c → now 54c (+6%), $6.4K on YES Activity · 5 events · Apr 21 → May 24 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 21SELLYES68−$576$0 May 09BUYYES51+$6,238$6,239 May 13BUYYES34+$364$4,526 May 23SELLYES34−$140$4,385 May 24SELLYES47−$68$5,995 Realized−$68 Unrealized+$464 Total Profit+$396 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (399) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x44c1..c1	MM	YES	$4.0K	+28%
This Market Entered at 38c → now 54c (+28%), $4.0K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 17 → May 25 DatePositionAmountTotal May 17BUYYES26+$1,082$1,082 May 25BUYYES54+$1,791$4,026 Realized— Unrealized+$1,138 Total Profit+$1,138 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1704) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd48a..90	Retail	YES	$3.7K	-15%
This Market Entered at 64c → now 54c (-15%), $3.7K on YES Activity · 3 events · Apr 14 → Apr 17 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 14BUYYES61+$3,000$3,000 Apr 16BUYYES73+$900$4,469 Apr 17BUYYES70+$500$4,812 Realized— Unrealized−$722 Total Profit−$722 Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.
0xeec5..fe	Retail	NO	$2.4K	-13%
This Market Entered at 59c → now 46c (-13%), $2.4K on NO Activity · 9 events · Apr 23 → May 26 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 23BUYNO42+$837$836 May 06BUYNO44+$6$881 May 06SELLNO55−$246$849 May 20BUYNO63+$4,505$5,490 May 21BUYNO59+$41$5,146 May 21SELLNO59−$472$4,674 May 22SELLNO60−$1,102$3,636 May 25BUYNO48+$75$2,994 May 26SELLNO46−$460$2,409 Realized−$77 Unrealized−$632 Total Profit−$709 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1502 trades).

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67% of YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 29c–64c, NO wallets at 35c–59c. At current price 54c, 67% of NO holders are profitable vs 67% of YES holders are profitable. Both sides have similar profitability — no structural edge.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

67% in profit

NO positions

67% in profit

Polymarket: 54c YES — $14.0M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 54c with $14.0M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 54c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	54c	$14.0M
Our Model	54c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 54% YES with $14.0M in total volume.

Where can I bet on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 12 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.