As of September 16, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?” at 6% YES with $3.0M traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 6% probability to: will 1 fed rate cut happen in 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 11c vs market 6c. BUY NO at 6c — models see 5c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 92c | 72% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 92c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 78c | 45% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 90c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 95c | 78% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–98c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 89c — market prices it at 94c. 5-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 70c, positioning against any 2026 Fed rate cut and signaling conviction that policy easing will not materialize. With no YES entries from this wallet, there is no offsetting smart-money bid to challenge the bearish thesis. Their profitable NO stance suggests the market's 6c YES price may still be too high if this wallet's directional read is correct.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4e25..a7 | MM | NO | $2.1K | +35% |
With YES at 6c, every YES position is underwater while all NO entries at 70c are in profit, creating strong incentive for NO holders to defend the 70c level. The absence of profitable YES positions removes any natural buying pressure to lift the price, reinforcing the 6c floor as a ceiling rather than a launchpad. This asymmetry favors continued NO dominance unless a catalyst forces repricing.
Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $3.0M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 11c. 5-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $3.0M |
| Our Model | 11c | — |