AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (1 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Inference | ??? | 52c |
45%
|
|
| Hidden Markov | ??? | 58c |
40%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 45c |
35%
|
|
| Ensemble Boosting | ??? | 55c |
50%
|
|
| Gaussian Process | ??? | 60c |
30%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 54c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $5.0K | -5% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$433 on $5.0K capital deployed (avg +8.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 88c | $923.2K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 54c | — | ✓ matched |