AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 36c |
28%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 28c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 19c |
72%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 24c |
76%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 22c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioning is unambiguously bearish on LPL: one-sided NO entry at 70c signals conviction that a Chinese team will not capture MSI 2026. With YES at 26c versus the wallet's 70c NO cost basis, the tracked flow validates the market's skew rather than fading it, suggesting continued downside pressure on YES.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4337..82 | MM | YES | $2.4K | +27% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,435 on $2.4K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 36c | $398.4K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 22c | — | ✓ matched |