AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | YES | 93c |
86%
|
|
| PIN Model | YES | 96c |
92%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 71c |
42%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 85c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 93c |
82%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 90c |
85%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 88c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money entered tight in the 84-85c band, signaling conviction that de la Espriella's path to victory was already de-risked at those levels rather than a speculative lottery ticket. The absence of any NO positioning from tracked wallets is the louder signal: zero contrarian capital means the alpha cohort sees no asymmetric short here, reinforcing the directional read toward resolution YES.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4488..19 ★ | MM | NO | $2.9K | -13% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,869 on $2.9K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 88c | $6.9M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 88c | — | ✓ matched |