AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 67c |
34%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 88c |
70%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 92c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 89c |
85%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 87c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money positioning is thin but directionally clean: one tracked wallet on YES at 80c, no NO entries, signaling early conviction that Anthropic retains the frontier model crown through June. The 9-point cushion above entry suggests the wallet will hold rather than rotate, reinforcing the 89c mark as a sticky floor absent a competing model release.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa52b..80 | MM | YES | $6.3K | +17% | |
| 0x162f..8d | MM | YES | $5.3K | -2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,760 on $11.5K capital deployed (avg +15.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $2.5M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 87c | — | ✓ matched |