How did 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jul 20, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Jul 20, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $174.3M

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Resolved · JUL 20

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (3 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG

86c

100c

Stop Loss Target Final

4 of 6 Models Agreed: NO

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	32c	36%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	9c	65%
Grok Contrarian	NO	15c	70%
Gemini Flash	???	45c	60%
Kimi Macro	NO	9c	75%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 35c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xa52b..80	MM	YES	$8.4K	+6%
This Market Entered at 8c → now 50c (+6%), $8.4K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jun 13 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 13BUYYES8+$7,979$7,979 Realized— Unrealized+$454 Total Profit+$454 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1324) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 90 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$8,434 on $8.4K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	8c	$174.3M	0c
AI Consensus	35c	—	✓ matched

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