Market resolved INVALID — positions refunded. Verdict outcome cannot be evaluated.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 20c |
60%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 47c |
6%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 7c |
78%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 20c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 34c |
55%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 26c YES. Market resolved INVALID.
Despite NO holding the larger dominant footprint, its 88c cost basis reflects late, poorly-timed positioning that the market has repriced sharply against it, whereas the disciplined 48c YES entries are validated by price. Smart money that is actually in profit leans YES, signaling the tracked flow quietly favors upside toward the $1m-before-GTA-VI resolution rather than the crowded, losing NO side.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x2e0b..70 | MM | NO | $4.2K | -34% | |
| 0x088f..e7 | MM | YES | $1.1K | +4% |
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 50c | $4.8M | 50c | |
| AI Consensus | 26c | — | × missed |