AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 9c |
78%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is positioned 100% short Brazil at 91c entry, a high-conviction fade of a pre-tournament favorite that signals skepticism toward Brazil converting talent into a sixth title. The 91c NO entry implies the wallet viewed even 9c YES as overpriced — consistent with World Cup base rates where any single nation, even a favorite, rarely clears 15-20% true probability. Direction read: continued drift toward 5-7c YES as the tournament approaches and the field's combined probability reasserts.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x24c8..e1 | MM | NO | $127.6K | +3% | |
| 0xa52b..80 | MM | YES | $5.6K | -34% | |
| 0xcaab..dd | MM | NO | $5.6K | +3% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$6,510 on $138.7K capital deployed (avg +4.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $81.9M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |