AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 69c |
38%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 94c |
78%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 93c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 93c |
85%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 89c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
A single tier wallet accumulated YES at 70c well before the move to 93c, signaling early-conviction positioning on Donalds as the nominee. The absence of any tracked NO entries despite a 23-point rally indicates smart money sees the path as one-directional, with no credible challenger thesis being funded.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c15..db | MM | YES | $2.8K | +32% | |
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | YES | $2.4K | +4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,420 on $5.1K capital deployed (avg +27.6%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 95c | $1.5M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 89c | — | ✓ matched |