Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (3 of 6 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jun 04, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $4.5M

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Q: How did 'Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jun 04, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUN 04

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 3 of 6 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

DIRECTION MATCHED

87c

100c

Stop Loss Target Final

1 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	63c	26%
Claude Analysis	YES	83c	55%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	35c	65%
Gemini Flash	YES	75c	65%
Kimi Macro	YES	82c	80%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 73c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

3 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money flow is split but YES entries cluster near current price (78c-90c), suggesting tracked wallets accumulated into strength rather than fading the move. The lone NO positioning at 26c looks like an early contrarian bet that has been decisively invalidated, and with dominant_side flagged NO yet zero NO wallets in profit, the directional conviction now favors continued YES grind toward resolution.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xd48a..90	MM	YES	$7.2K	-9%
This Market Entered at 90c → now 50c (-9%), $7.2K on YES Activity · 1 event · Apr 17 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 17BUYYES90+$7,993$7,993 Realized— Unrealized−$753 Total Profit−$753 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (134) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7616..ee	Retail	NO	$1.7K	-8%
This Market Entered at 26c → now 50c (-8%), $1.7K on NO Activity · 73 events · Nov 22 → Apr 01 DatePositionAmountTotal Nov 22BUYNO80+$16$16 Nov 27BUYNO82+$115$131 Dec 01BUYNO74+$22$141 Dec 02BUYNO70+$34$167 Dec 03BUYNO73+$437$610 Dec 05BUYNO71+$11$605 Dec 06BUYNO71+$11$616 Dec 08BUYNO71+$11$626 Dec 09BUYNO62+$468$1,015 Dec 11BUYNO60+$440$1,420 Dec 14BUYNO58+$192$1,563 Dec 15BUYNO60+$60$1,675 Dec 16BUYNO58+$529$2,145 Dec 17BUYNO57+$47$2,169 Dec 18BUYNO56+$36$2,152 Dec 19BUYNO55+$216$2,364 Dec 21BUYNO52+$129$2,350 Dec 22BUYNO50+$120$2,388 Dec 24BUYNO49+$37$2,346 Dec 25BUYNO49+$5$2,367 Dec 26BUYNO49+$146$2,524 Dec 27BUYNO47+$94$2,504 Dec 28BUYNO45+$129$2,519 Dec 30BUYNO44+$6$2,477 Jan 02BUYNO40+$6$2,249 Jan 04BUYNO40+$2$2,260 Jan 05BUYNO38+$23$2,182 Jan 06BUYNO36+$7$2,063 Jan 08BUYNO35+$21$2,031 Jan 09BUYNO35+$20$2,047 Jan 14BUYNO44+$1$2,574 Jan 15BUYNO43+$4$2,534 Jan 16BUYNO43+$4$2,524 Jan 18BUYNO38+$20$2,250 Jan 19BUYNO37+$59$2,233 Jan 23BUYNO39+$14$2,386 Jan 25BUYNO42+$2$2,572 Jan 29BUYNO43+$1$2,634 Feb 04BUYNO39+$2$2,414 Feb 05BUYNO39+$4$2,395 Feb 06BUYNO40+$11$2,449 Feb 08BUYNO38+$40$2,396 Feb 09BUYNO35+$286$2,458 Feb 10BUYNO35+$186$2,685 Feb 11BUYNO33+$112$2,667 Feb 12BUYNO26+$210$2,294 Feb 13BUYNO29+$59$2,601 Feb 14BUYNO30+$38$2,729 Feb 15BUYNO27+$419$2,881 Feb 16BUYNO28+$174$3,179 Feb 17BUYNO29+$47$3,350 Feb 20BUYNO22+$154$2,686 Feb 21BUYNO23+$31$2,803 Feb 23BUYNO25+$2$3,065 Feb 24BUYNO26+$26$3,213 Feb 27BUYNO19+$13$2,361 Feb 28BUYNO20+$20$2,505 Mar 01BUYNO19+$1$2,381 Mar 02BUYNO23+$35$2,874 Mar 03BUYNO22+$14$2,827 Mar 05BUYNO21+$6$2,682 Mar 06BUYNO20+$94$2,585 Mar 08BUYNO17+$67$2,347 Mar 09BUYNO16+$22$2,227 Mar 13BUYNO18+$3$2,483 Mar 15BUYNO18+$4$2,487 Mar 16BUYNO17+$58$2,389 Mar 17BUYNO18+$24$2,605 Mar 18BUYNO16+$85$2,438 Mar 22BUYNO20+$18$2,963 Mar 23BUYNO20+$1$2,981 Mar 28BUYNO21+$14$3,144 Apr 01SELLNO59−$5$8,829 Realized+$2 Unrealized−$690 Total Profit−$688 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1908 trades).
0x162f..8d	MM	YES	$1.4K	+4%
This Market Entered at 78c → now 50c (+4%), $1.4K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 28 DatePositionAmountTotal May 28BUYYES78+$1,302$1,302 Realized— Unrealized+$58 Total Profit+$58 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (423) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

16% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$3,835 on $10.3K capital deployed (avg -37.3%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

16% in profit

YES positions

84% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	82c	$4.5M	0c
AI Consensus	73c	—	× missed

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