AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 9c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioned exclusively NO at 87-90c, treating the Nobel as a near-certain fade from the outset rather than waiting for the price to drift down. The tight entry band signals high conviction the prize won't go to Trump in 2026, and at 8c YES the trade is essentially closed-out economically — wallets are holding for final resolution, not adding.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5188..04 | MM | NO | $40.5K | +7% | |
| 0x47ab..df | MM | NO | $11.8K | +3% | |
| 0xa8af..5e | MM | NO | $2.8K | +8% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$6,866 on $55.1K capital deployed (avg +12.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $8.0M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 9c | — | ✓ matched |