Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 20, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $1.6M

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Q: How did 'Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on May 20, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 20

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (3 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (3 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.

Stop Loss Target Final

2 of 6 Models Agreed: YES

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	YES	53c	6%
PIN Model	YES	57c	14%
Compound Signal	NO	31c	38%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	31c	72%
Gemini Flash	???	45c	65%
Kimi Macro	NO	53c	65%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 45c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 3 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 3 market makers are providing $6K in liquidity, primarily on YES. NO wallets entered between 76c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x4488..19 ★	MM	YES	$3.5K	+28%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 25c → now 50c (+28%), $3.5K on YES Activity · 6 events · May 03 → May 15 DatePositionAmountTotal May 03BUYYES22+$117$117 May 05BUYYES25+$194$329 May 06BUYYES24+$545$855 May 07BUYYES25+$1,245$2,142 May 11BUYYES28+$178$2,628 May 15BUYYES40+$633$4,290 Realized— Unrealized+$1,182 Total Profit+$1,182 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (858) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd039..32	MM	NO	$1.5K	-18%
This Market Entered at 76c → now 50c (-18%), $1.5K on NO Activity · 2 events · Apr 20 → May 06 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 20BUYNO70+$109$109 May 06BUYNO77+$1,711$1,830 Realized— Unrealized−$326 Total Profit−$326 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1284) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$1.4K	+58%
This Market Entered at 24c → now 50c (+58%), $1.4K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 05 DatePositionAmountTotal May 05BUYYES24+$913$913 Realized— Unrealized+$527 Total Profit+$527 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (756) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

77% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$13,736 on $6.4K capital deployed (avg +214.8%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

77% in profit

NO positions

23% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	37c	$1.6M	100c
AI Consensus	45c	—	× missed

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