How did 'Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jul 16, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Jul 16, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $110.2M

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Resolved · JUL 16

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (2 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG

87c

100c

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	NO	17c	66%
PIN Model	NO	13c	74%
Compound Signal	NO	17c	66%
Claude Analysis	NO	9c	78%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	16c	82%
Kimi Macro	NO	16c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 15c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is uniformly positioned against England lifting the trophy, with all tracked wallets clustering NO entries at 89c — a tight, high-conviction consensus that the field beats a single nation. The absence of dispersion on either side signals this is treated as a structural fade, not a contested directional call.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xd81f..75	Smart	NO	$2.6K	-2%
This Market Entered at 89c → now 50c (-2%), $2.6K on NO Activity · 1 event · Apr 28 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 28BUYNO89+$2,664$2,664 Realized— Unrealized−$40 Total Profit−$40 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 286 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0x1bc6..36	Smart	YES	$1.2K	+13%
This Market Entered at 11c → now 50c (+13%), $1.2K on YES Activity · 2 events · Apr 19 → May 10 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 19BUYYES11+$722$722 May 10BUYYES11+$374$1,109 Realized— Unrealized+$147 Total Profit+$147 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 556 resolved bets. Disagrees with consensus.
0xa52b..80	MM	YES	$12.7K	+29%
This Market Entered at 10c → now 50c (+29%), $12.7K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jun 13 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 13BUYYES10+$9,797$9,797 Realized— Unrealized+$2,878 Total Profit+$2,878 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1338) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x4488..19 ★	MM	YES	$11.6K	+22%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 10c → now 50c (+22%), $11.6K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 30 → Jun 13 DatePositionAmountTotal May 30BUYYES11+$4,712$4,712 Jun 13BUYYES10+$4,850$8,931 Realized— Unrealized+$1,993 Total Profit+$1,993 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (980) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd48a..90	MM	YES	$2.4K	+12%
This Market Entered at 11c → now 50c (+12%), $2.4K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 29 → Jun 01 DatePositionAmountTotal May 29BUYYES11+$1,100$1,100 Jun 01BUYYES11+$1,000$2,100 Realized— Unrealized+$253 Total Profit+$253 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (202) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 90 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

9% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$27,496 on $30.5K capital deployed (avg -90.3%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

9% in profit

YES positions

91% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	13c	$110.2M	0c
AI Consensus	15c	—	✓ matched

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