AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
75%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
95%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money entered NO at 98c — a near-certainty fade signaling conviction that Haddad has no realistic path to the 2026 presidency. The single-wallet sample limits aggregation strength, but the entry level itself (paying 98c for 2c of edge) implies structural rather than speculative positioning. Directional read: NO remains the trade, with YES at 5c reflecting residual tail risk, not a mispricing.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc1b3..1c | MM | NO | $6.9K | -3% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$162 on $6.9K capital deployed (avg +2.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $7.7M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |